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Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018


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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&amp;ech=210&amp;mode=2

 

looking very mixed weather after Oct  26  aft 216 hr

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Anyone fancy a BBQ next saturday?..the Gfs 6z operational looks very summery on that day.

06_156_uk2mtmp.png

06_156_mslp850.png

06_156_ukthickness850.png

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Anyone fancy a BBQ next saturday?..the Gfs 6z operational looks very summery on that day.

06_156_uk2mtmp.png

06_156_mslp850.png

06_156_ukthickness850.png

Looks very warm indeed, but I personally feel that won’t be the outcome for then but let’s wait and see.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

According to the Ukmo 12z it's wednesday and saturday which look like being the very warmest days in the week ahead but there's plenty of warm days further s / e  especially where the best of the dry weather and sunshine occur.☺ 

UW72-7.gif

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UW144-7.gif

UW144-21.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Ah I'm despairing looking at the 12z run for my week off as it looks horrible 

From a mid October warm spell to a cyclonic mess in just 24 hours is a bit of a punch to the gut. I also worry a secondary low may get caught up in the southerly flow on Friday. This October hasn't been the kindest here so far, it seems to save all its bad weather for the weekends and the time I have off!

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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

GFS 12z has a monster storm hitting Ireland and NW parts of the UK! Gusts of 95mph+ if that comes off, definitely one to watch since it’s only 5 days away (which is years in the current situation of the models but still).

D49A8A2D-6D4C-4D9B-AAF7-5D37FC0CE826.thumb.jpeg.0d62cd5b227013d57788567317fbd33e.jpegE9587852-5AEF-4441-B272-EB314B91BC51.thumb.jpeg.9eae158fab0ad43338d6798cfdac7472.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
45 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

GFS 12z has a monster storm hitting Ireland and NW parts of the UK! Gusts of 95mph+ if that comes off, definitely one to watch since it’s only 5 days away (which is years in the current situation of the models but still).

D49A8A2D-6D4C-4D9B-AAF7-5D37FC0CE826.thumb.jpeg.0d62cd5b227013d57788567317fbd33e.jpegE9587852-5AEF-4441-B272-EB314B91BC51.thumb.jpeg.9eae158fab0ad43338d6798cfdac7472.jpeg

BBC long range forecast are saying windy and unsettled towards the end of the week . So the GFS is most likely right , but most probably over doing the low as it usually does . How the models have changed in the last 24 hours is nuts . Look how unsettled and a lot cooler the GFS ensembles are now . 

IMG_2637.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

GFS raw charts for next Saturday not that far away from 80F - would surely be the latest that has ever happened by far - still, at this range, 20-24C probably the most sensible landing spot. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Although the models are indicating a more unsettled spell from the end of the week we shouldn't gloss over the fact there is some absolutely beautiful weather to come during the week ahead, wednesday for example looks dry and sunny across the board with hardly any cloud and temperatures widely into the low 20's celsius and that includes parts of scotland..summery weather heading towards mid october is a lovely bonus!☺

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny days and balmy evenings.
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

GFS raw charts for next Saturday not that far away from 80F - would surely be the latest that has ever happened by far - still, at this range, 20-24C probably the most sensible landing spot. 

BBC county file weather for the week bullish about a wet and windy weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I think that now this appears to have corrected towards much more unsettled conditions at the end of the week....we could now be in for a protracted spell of wet and windy weather. The block isn’t going to save us this time unfortunately.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

High pressure poking its way right up into the Artic . Making it hard for the PV to get going . 

IMG_2640.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

if  the gfs is  right deep in  fantasy world things could get a bit wet!!

gfs-2-384.png

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Feels like there's an 'every 7th wave' thing going on in the south east at the moment. If that wild wet and windy Saturday comes off it'll be the third such saturday in four weeks of otherwise pretty decent weather. 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Still 4 days away but the deep Low for Friday needs to be kept an eye on, With plenty of time for adjustments. Currently modelled to hit Ireland and N/W Scotland with wind gusts possibly touching 90mph.. As shown by NetW-wx.

Mod2.thumb.png.725ed9df0ba2621d7f07c7a08ea8e137.pngMod3.thumb.png.a1cfe1892c1b90f3d0f0d085a939687b.pngmod1.thumb.png.69dba37595a9bf891a00949902437ff0.png 

 

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
56 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Still 4 days away but the deep Low for Friday needs to be kept an eye on, With plenty of time for adjustments. Currently modelled to hit Ireland and N/W Scotland with wind gusts possibly touching 90mph.. As shown by NetW-wx.

Mod2.thumb.png.725ed9df0ba2621d7f07c7a08ea8e137.pngMod3.thumb.png.a1cfe1892c1b90f3d0f0d085a939687b.pngmod1.thumb.png.69dba37595a9bf891a00949902437ff0.png 

 

Glad I will still be under benign Euro high @Polar Maritime although getting bored with this constant sunshine and crazy warmth over here !! Typical Octobers these days.

C

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Still some discrepancies in the ensembles for the weekend's weather:

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/10/08/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018100800_144.png

You'd expect the op run to win out at D6, but still a very sizeable cluster that would keep more of the UK in (very) warm conditions, with the Atlantic troughs held back somewhat.

Into the second half of October and little chance of the mild southerlies persisting. All clusters are westerly sourced by T360, with variations possible that would allow shorter or longer cool spells:

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/10/08/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018100800_348.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Well it is certainly a very interesting outlook this week if it's unseasonably warm weather you're after. Wednesday looks truly stunning for many. The setup is very similar to the warm spell around October 7th 1995. Widespread temperatures across the UK above 20C and 25C could well be reached somewhere. 

Still a bit of uncertainty about Saturday but if the trough holds back enough we may even better Wednesday's temperatures. Some really remarkable uppers showing for some parts of the UK, above 15C.

GFSOPUK06_129_2.png

 

Edited by Scorcher
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I found some snow on the Gfs 12z operational and a very unsettled (disturbed) and cold late october.❄❄❄☔☔☔

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I wouldn’t get too excited just yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Plenty of warmth to come in the meantime- could be some exceptional temperatures over the next few days and some daily records could fall I think. The GFS 12Z is another very warm run in the reliable tonight, showing temperatures staying above 20C even into Sunday in the east.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Like the Gfs 12z operational the Gefs 12z mean strongly supports a marked change to colder and very unsettled weather through late october and looking through the postage stamps there is some snow potential, at least for northern high ground.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

EC32 maintains above average height signal over scandi right out to week 4, not pretty in terms of next 4 weeks with a trough anchored near and to the west of UK but could be an absolute goldmine down the line with heights been driven into the pole, would like to see if theres a pacific ridge squeezing from the other side as well - if so - early fireworks synoptically late Nov / early Dec me thinks.

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