Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

[The PIT]

I see ECM brings the remains of Leslie past the west of Ireland however the exact track differs widely from Model to Model and run to run.

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. A bit of a frustrated post this one until the new winter moaning thread opens ! Charts seem to be heading for a full usual October Bore Fest for much of Euroland. I hate October, weather wise, usually a month of nothingness, especially in Central Europe. Another 15 days under a warm high will test my patients to the limit. Counting the days for real cold and snow to establish on the mountain.  A trip to Canada beckons for some seasonal variety !

C

Further to the above post as @Northernlights has just reminded me, a mild dry October is just great for the farming community. Its just from a meteorological point of view , I find this set a bit of a bore. Having said that, its like summer again this morning in the mountains and the fine weather is helping with the final stages of the construction of our new gondola, well ahead of finishing time. Yes, the cows still grazing on the upper slopes with snow cover back up to over 2500m.

C

[I remember Atlantic 252]

14 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Really quiet in here..anyway this from the Ecm 12z would certainly blow the cobwebs away...very autumnal indeed!

but thankfully all change on 00Z!

[mb018538]

Not quite! ECM 00z clusters:

Cluster 1 still has the trough very dominant...as it’s still 35% I’d say it’s not clear cut at all yet. Cluster 2 and 3 are much better, so let’s hope we get that outcome rather than gales and heavy rain.

[Derecho]

Urgh, I've got a week off from the 14th to 21st October and I'm hoping to do stuff outdoors... the last nice week I want before entering cold ramping mode....

Whereas the 00z was absolutely fantastic, the 06z..... well lets toss it in the bin and hope it never shows up again eh?

[Iceaxecrampon]

In all this current mildness I should know better but looking at FI for a probable (not) Icelandic origination chill around the 18th.

[Man With Beard]

Further down the road with the ensembles, a small chance of something cooler after mid month on cluster 2 if a high can establish itself to our NE. 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

43 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

In all this current mildness I should know better but looking at FI for a probable (not) Icelandic origination chill around the 18th.

Nice to see heights up towards Svalbard, heading into Greenland (yellows and oranges ). Low pressure heading into mainland Europe is good too (trying to undercut)

 

If only it would appear in the reliable!!

[Methuselah]

17 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Nice to see heights up towards Svalbard, heading into Greenland (yellows and oranges ). Low pressure heading into mainland Europe is good too (trying to undercut)

If only it would appear in the reliable!!

Please, no? A 'cracking' spell of cold and windy filth, with an outside chance of sleet, might be in store...

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Further down the road with the ensembles, a small chance of something cooler after mid month on cluster 2 if a high can establish itself to our NE. 

Still a massive westerly wind burst in the east Pacific for the forseeable. Although this time of year can mean low pressure wins, i would still bet on pressure being dominant to our north and east with some type of undercut tried.

Cluster 3 looks very wrong to me.

[Mike Poole]

GEM 12z shows probably the most optimistic solution of those on the table for a late blast of summer heat next weekend, here at T192:

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

EC good, 20 degrees plus likely

[Scorcher]

Wow there are some really warm charts on offer this evening for next week.

With uppers commonly above 10C for most from midweek onwards, there could be some very impressive temps with perhaps some records threatened.

The ECM is quite incredible for next weekend. The chart for Sunday shows 14C uppers over eastern Scotland. In that setup you'd fancy places like Aboyne to do very well with a chance of 25C being reached.

[Frosty.]

There's plenty of unseasonably warm weather on the Ecm 12z..not really october like..more summer like at times..nice ending too!

 

Edited October 5, 2018 by Frosty.

[Newberryone]

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM 12z shows probably the most optimistic solution of those on the table for a late blast of summer heat next weekend, here at T192:

 

And not just Gem, for the 12z Ecm is singing from a similar hymn sheet with tentative signs of the block to the east winning the battle for now at least against the Atlantic. What was only 24 hours ago showing something really autumnal for the backend of next week has now switched to conditions akin to late Summer as opposed to late Autumn. Something I gather that will displease many on here who like myself are yearning for something more turbulent. 

[damianslaw]

Quite a bit of chopping and changing on show from the models for the medium term at the moment - swinging from the atlantic gaining the upper hand and back again to the ridge dominating.. alas don't be surprised to see a swing back to the trough scenario - ex hurricane leslie and how it interacts with the jet is causing the uncertainty - a warm southerly might quickly be exchanged by a cold cyclonic period as the storm system undercuts and heads into central europe.. 

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Seeing some of the warm charts, such as that 12Z ECMWF later next week, it would almost feel like Hotober.

[Allseasons-Si]

Lol

sorry i am late to the party(just got in from work)but the 12z gfs keeps Hurricane Leslie spiraling around the Atlantic for all of it's run,infact at the end of the run it's in a very similar place to the 168hrs

 

 

Edited October 5, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well if people want a cold start to winter, the charts showing today (i'm looking specifically at the 12z and 18z GFS) are pretty on point.

Huge blocking to the E and NE which is enabling the trop vortex to remain perturbed.

The next thing we'd want to see after this is some pressure from the Canadian vortex pushing a trough ESE across the Atlantic, this troughing not making it much further E than the meridian (with HP remaining to the ENE). Once we get to this point, we're in November 2009 territory...

Can we get there, that's the question? However, the modelling is looking very closely aligned to EC seasonal thus far...

[Allseasons-Si]

The 18z gfs illutrates trough disruption to the west/southwest of the uk sending lows on a NW>SE trajectory in it's latter stages thanks to a block to the NE in Scandinavia and we have a black hole anomoly as early as t204

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=12&carte=1

i know this is early days but i would like to see this happen come the winter months

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Well if people want a cold start to winter, the charts showing today (i'm looking specifically at the 12z and 18z GFS) are pretty on point.

Huge blocking to the E and NE which is enabling the trop vortex to remain perturbed.

The next thing we'd want to see after this is some pressure from the Canadian vortex pushing a trough ESE across the Atlantic, this troughing not making it much further E than the meridian (with HP remaining to the ENE). Once we get to this point, we're in November 2009 territory...

Can we get there, that's the question? However, the modelling is looking very closely aligned to EC seasonal thus far...

Ha! just posted and minds alike

[Sky Full]

Benign, settled and, dare I say it, seasonally above average temperatures on offer from the models for around the 13th October according to these charts:

ECM +192      

The continental air is relatively warm and dry with almost all of the European continent rain-free:

GFS       

GEM agrees:

               

Oh dear.  JMA begs to differ:

JMA:       

Interesting.  I wonder who will get the closest to verifying......

[Man With Beard]

Another shockingly warm run for the ECM with plenty of days over 20C coming up between now and mid month (and not just in the SE I would expect). But I too can see a route to cold later in the month now (certainly no strong trend at this stage though) - which is to pull the high pressure cell over E Europe further west - the ECM achieves this today with the help of Leslie stalling to South - yes, still warm at D10, but if the high stays there it would stay turning cooler from that point as the winds start to obtain an easterly element. 

Anyway so far off, just thought I'd post something to give the coldies hope (!), main theme is exceptional mild weather for the time of year to carry on for some time bar the odd front passing through. 

[carinthian]

21 hours ago, carinthian said:

Further to the above post as @Northernlights has just reminded me, a mild dry October is just great for the farming community. Its just from a meteorological point of view , I find this set a bit of a bore. Having said that, its like summer again this morning in the mountains and the fine weather is helping with the final stages of the construction of our new gondola, well ahead of finishing time. Yes, the cows still grazing on the upper slopes with snow cover back up to over 2500m.

C

Morning all, it was a stunning day in the Austrian Alps yesterday. More of the same this coming week with high upper temps to stay for many. We have a forecast high of 25c for Salzburgerland  on Tuesday which is just amazing.

C

[mulzy]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Another shockingly warm run for the ECM with plenty of days over 20C coming up between now and mid month (and not just in the SE I would expect). But I too can see a route to cold later in the month now (certainly no strong trend at this stage though) - which is to pull the high pressure cell over E Europe further west - the ECM achieves this today with the help of Leslie stalling to South - yes, still warm at D10, but if the high stays there it would stay turning cooler from that point as the winds start to obtain an easterly element. 

Anyway so far off, just thought I'd post something to give the coldies hope (!), main theme is exceptional mild weather for the time of year to carry on for some time bar the odd front passing through. 

I am a coldie - cold can wait till December.  Bring on the October warmth!

ECM looks great medium term, especially in the SE.

Edited October 6, 2018 by mulzy