Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

[northwestsnow]

Guess we will have to see ..

ECM showing a colder northerly flow as we move towards the end of next week, i'd wager some ground frosts under clear skies, northern England northwards..

[Frosty.]

According to the Gfs 00z operational, summer returns towards mid october!

Edited September 29, 2018 by Frosty.

[BlueHedgehog074]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

According to the Gfs 00z operational, summer returns towards mid october!

Although in Fantasy Island, some nice charts to get those who like the warmth and Summery conditions mouths drooling! Probably won’t happen, but to see one last bite of the Summer cake until next year would be grand!

Looks overall on the models that it could be quite up and down next week with a ridge to low to ridge setup occurring. Low pressure moving through from the West followed by ridging of high pressure followed by another Low. So fairly changeable, but Southern areas of the UK still probably seeing more in the way of less unsettled conditions with pressure looking reasonably high in the South in general. 

The 00Z ECMWF does try to spit out a Northerly for the UK later next week, but end up with a brief North-Westerly flow with the flow quite quickly getting cut off as the ridge in the Atlantic gets knocked Eastwards.

Still likely to be chilly for a time though if this happens

[bluearmy]

 I come on here to note the interesting gfs and gfsp week 2 from a coldie perspective (re repeating patterns and long range seasonals fitting this broad evolution ) whilst others see the warmth as the building scandi ridge pulls up a temporary southerly flow. 

Last ec46 was big on a scandi ridge for the first half of Nov 

[Newberryone]

49 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

According to the Gfs 00z operational, summer returns towards mid october!

Although a personal view I'm pretty confident it's representative of many on here when I say I hope this particular gfs run is NOT on the money. Summers last hurrah it may be, but heading for mid October Spanish plumes hold little appeal. Somewhat more palatable to me would be the latter frames of the overnight Ecm run, Day 10 for e.g  If for no other reason a more mobile/active  Atlantic profile would appear to be underway.  

Edited September 29, 2018 by Newberryone

[Yarmy]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 I come on here to note the interesting gfs and gfsp week 2 from a coldie perspective (re repeating patterns and long range seasonals fitting this broad evolution ) whilst others see the warmth as the building scandi ridge pulls up a temporary southerly flow. 

Last ec46 was big on a scandi ridge for the first half of Nov 

Yes, just to illustrate that at the end of both runs:

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

^^

Yes, Much better runs this morning from the two GFS's, Those two charts would be quite a considerable -OPI I would wager.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

54 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

^^

Yes, Much better runs this morning from the two GFS's, Those two charts would be quite a considerable -OPI I would wager.

3 months too late though, for summer fans

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

3 months too late though, for summer fans

I was more referring to these type of charts. Big -AO NAO charts.

Edited September 29, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I was more referring to these type of charts. Big -AO NAO charts.

All FI though, especially yours 384

Living here, cold setups can stay away until mid to late Nov

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational the run up to mid october becomes anticyclonic and pretty much bone dry nationwide with the most pleasant temperatures further south.☺

[bazookabob]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

3 months too late though, for summer fans

To be fair, we pretty much had that 3 months ago. 

[mb018538]

After the summer we had, that’s like complaining about winning £10m on the lottery because the jackpot 3 months ago was £25m!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

After the summer we had, that’s like complaining about winning £10m on the lottery because the jackpot 3 months ago was £25m!

Yes, its like me complaining about Jan 1987 or Feb 91 and saying - well if we'd have had that -15c to -20c isotherm over the North sea in November, we might have had a metre in stead of 30 or 40cm

[BlueHedgehog074]

Just remember guys, this is the model thread. You wouldn’t want anything to happen to your posts now, would you!

[feb1991blizzard]

Textbook Scandi high, pattern keeps repeating since February / March - that's 6 months, just need it to keep repeating another 6 months and we are home and hosed.

[ICE COLD]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Textbook Scandi high, pattern keeps repeating since February / March - that's 6 months, just need it to keep repeating another 6 months and we are home and hosed.

Beat me to it Feb . There's some great N/H views that keep appearing and like u say hopefully they will still be showing when we're in Nov/Dec . 

[Weather-history]

5 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

3 months too late though, for summer fans

Yes if it were 2012 now.....got to be one of the daftest posts in recent times. 

Edited September 29, 2018 by Weather-history

[I remember Atlantic 252]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Textbook Scandi high, pattern keeps repeating since February / March - that's 6 months, just need it to keep repeating another 6 months and we are home and hosed.

Ay, good chart for some, my location 6 weeks too early, so 7 degrees and drizzly rain off the N Sea yuk, for now, I want the southerlies

Edited September 29, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[feb1991blizzard]

Best GEFS suite this season, ensemble mean with a scandi high and upper ridge practically into the pole, some corkers in there.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Textbook Scandi high, pattern keeps repeating since February / March - that's 6 months, just need it to keep repeating another 6 months and we are home and hosed.

From what I've seen, some of the seasonal modelling wants to transfer these mean Scandi heights further west as we progress towards winter.

Edited September 29, 2018 by CreweCold

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean there is no sign of any widespread unsettled weather, indeed it's anticyclonic domination across southern uk which gradually becomes nationwide..this goes completely against exeter's latest update which is all about wet and windy spells becoming widespread..not seeing any indication of that being the likely evolution according to this run..what I'm seeing is high pressure becoming established to the east which holds atlantic systems at bay.

Edited September 29, 2018 by Frosty.

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

From what I've seen, some of the seasonal modelling wants to transfer these mean Scandi heights further west as we progress towards winter.

Yes, I would prefer a GH right now from an impatience perspective but as long as its before the strat vortex starts exerting its influence later on then great, right now as long as there is WAA being driven into the pole, then great, regardless of where from, plus I also remember that the OPI was a killer for very good winters if positive at all, nowhere near a guarantee of -AO winters when something like -1, but huge negative number OPI's, ie - huge blocking over pole for lengthy spells in October were a near cast iron guarantee of at least some very good blocking patterns and gives you a shot at a memorable winter.

EDIT : caveat as per steve M thread in the Autumn section is that things have changed so analogues might not be a great pointer.

Edited September 29, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Methuselah]

Given the fact that some of the expectations, in here, are getting a tad extreme, is it really any surprise that some of the more ludicrous media 'forecasts' have cited NW as a source?

[Mike Poole]

So all models show a slightly cooler feed into Monday, whilst remaining largely settled before the high reasserts itself.  As we approach the following weekend the high drifts east with another one following on behind.  But not so fast, FV3 and ECM make much more of the unsettled interlude, here T168:

T240 FV3 builds a Scandi high:

ECM flatter:

Then FV3 pulls up that southerly that has appeared on and off in FI for a while now:

October - blows hot and cold they say