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Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Looks like extra runs from ECM are coming our way

"Just heard word that ECMWF will soon be providing 6Z and 18Z cycles (in addition to the 0/12Z runs). This will be hourly data from 0 to 90 hours and 3-hourly data from 93 to 144 hours for 00/06/12/18Z runs. Good news to start the day!"

 

I really hope there will still be a 144 onwards though in 12 hour steps.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

High Pressure (s) dominate the Gfs 12z operational across the southern half / third of the uk despite coming under a lot of pressure at times, amazing resilience really. Most of the more changeable / unsettled weather is restricted to northern uk, specifically scotland, especially further north and even those areas have some fine spells too. Temperatures, cloud cover and sunshine are very variable as the position / orientation of the high (s) frequently changes although later in the run high pressure looks more stable with the fine weather nationwide.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Seems like we have seen a shift away from the anticyclone being parked over the UK next week, a brief northerly setting in on sunday evening.

GFSOPEU12_78_1.png

Before milder air briefly takes over midweek:

GFSOPEU12_144_1.png

However it looks like another northerly could be on its way later on in the week:

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png UKMO

Depending on whether the high to our south moves west. The GFS doesn't quite do it and we get a brief cool NW'ly instead.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Looks like extra runs from ECM are coming our way

"Just heard word that ECMWF will soon be providing 6Z and 18Z cycles (in addition to the 0/12Z runs). This will be hourly data from 0 to 90 hours and 3-hourly data from 93 to 144 hours for 00/06/12/18Z runs. Good news to start the day!"

 

I posted this in the model tweets thread seven minutes before you posted it in here ha ha of which i thought was more appropiate but i guess it isn't a bad idea to post it in here so that a lot more people know about it:),as if we haven't got enough models to look at esp the gfs and gfs parallele four times a day,i suppose the more data the better but i hope it goes out to t240 just like the 0z/12z

as for the models,there is a lot of chopping and changing going on prob due to four storms/hurricaines around the globe at the moment throwing uncertainties into the mix in western and eastern Pacific the Alantic and in the Med(black cirlcles) plus also that huge +ve heights over Alaska and into the pole(red circle)

gfs 12z t06hrs for example

gfsnh-0-6.thumb.png.0f676d845bbf79c80e1d9773065def4c.png

until things settle down it's going to be a topsy turvy ride

on a final note:-

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

There’s nowt as frustrating for a coldie as a west based neg NAO ......

Agreed, but I don't mind seeing a predicted one because these patterns usually shift too far east in the run up to a cold spell!

EDIT : although admittedly that might be a dangerous game now with solar activity very low so Jet likely to be at its weakest.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

There’s nowt as frustrating for a coldie as a west based neg NAO ......

I asume you are on about that latest tweet i posted,yes it looks that way but it does say that it will be updating and that it is the current anologue,so fingers and toes crossed it centralizes that -nao:)

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Interesting GFS run tonight with a persistent trough in the later stages near the Azores. Looking at my handy tropical chart it appears that this signal may not be ingest with tropical convection completing a full orbit at strength for the first time since perhaps June. That is a strong signal during the first half of October for blocking to our north and east (interesting in the context of current modeling for a Scandi Trough). 

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Re:- the ecm

it could be as early as 1st Oct for the new ecm with subscibers seing the hourly resolution.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
5 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Interesting GFS run tonight with a persistent trough in the later stages near the Azores. Looking at my handy tropical chart it appears that this signal may not be ingest with tropical convection completing a full orbit at strength for the first time since perhaps June. That is a strong signal during the first half of October for blocking to our north and east (interesting in the context of current modeling for a Scandi Trough). 

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

Hi SB

could you elaberate this chart as i was meant to ask before but forgot about it,ta.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
23 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Re:- the ecm

it could be as early as 1st Oct for the new ecm with subscibers seing the hourly resolution.

 

BTW this doesn't mean we will get them though, I cant see meteociel forking out a huge sum of money just to then show them to us.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BTW this doesn't mean we will get them though, I cant see meteociel forking out a huge sum of money just to then show them to us.

Maybe in time

lets see what happens.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

Hi SB

could you elaberate this chart as i was meant to ask before but forgot about it,ta.

Its a time serious of tropical anomolies. The reds are in effect westerlies and blue easterlies. 

Where they sit can influence our weather down the line.

You can see a diagonal red which shows a wave passing through the Pacific adding westerlies to the atmosphere and enhancing mid latitude blocking. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Atlantic really waking up on this mornings ECM run at day 9/10:

ECM1-216.GIF?28-12ECM1-240.GIF?28-12

GEM looking stormy around the same period, though in a different way:

gem-0-210.png?00

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Just a focus on the nearer term output today.

Some mostly settled weather in the next few days for places with further sunny spells in places continuing a similar theme earlier this week with High Pressure in control, especially so in the South. 

496D5936-0CC3-4D9C-B826-0271A8B4432B.thumb.png.9ec240b72d6322e99691bd502f625e06.png

09076EB6-5444-495C-AC28-A98D3661CED5.thumb.png.d4e2c681dbb99eed1d3aec7e1cc4ec42.png

Towards the weekend, however, the models show Low Pressure to the North-West swinging South-Eastwards bringing wind and rain over Northern areas.

3BEC0235-DB54-4A7A-8B3F-AE584E86365A.thumb.png.541ca944b384e263c704242c7d34c6c6.png

But as the Low Pressure drops to the South-East, the models show the flow briefly turning to the North during Sunday with some showers likely for Northern and some Eastern areas. 

2BDF1BAD-F673-4898-B36B-9C5597FE9CFF.thumb.png.89403a199a95f51837beedf93dc85fc8.png

The flow looks as though it should be cold enough for the snow switch to get turned on over the Scottish mountains.

B9268CB6-6544-41A3-91E0-8BECA7B32CE3.thumb.png.6e36c627463e1490d991e53227d6c371.png

E01E6AAD-C861-47EC-B836-1A84409C201D.thumb.png.4a4331f908d04f2cbd634b31a0ed50cc.png

BEF3AB45-FD65-4C6A-879D-03CBEB15F4AF.thumb.png.f47a9031863a898aec056eaa84b5b643.png

1EC88E62-372B-42C1-9184-2E0DC5AAA04D.thumb.png.d07479d9d8a06427ee999296b9b963b3.png

But doesn’t look as though there’ll be too much of the white stuff.

Mild to warm during the day times in the South, particularly in the sunnier periods, but generally a bit cooler in the North with temperatures more in the lower teens - perhaps into single digits in some places in the far North. But with the cooler flow from the North on Sunday and into Monday, then more places in the North could see temperatures more into the single digits.

Daytime maximum temperatures:

CA7D49A4-607E-45BB-B26A-6F296DCBFB6E.thumb.png.6633caeb25142d0a6ce5de2c7cf6d3a1.png

21BC6A5D-133E-4C3F-977B-A6BB817DE8A2.thumb.png.c98c9d7a01d75a6074f1f4a52059f9c2.png

21089FE5-A602-4AB6-AE98-48C58F9B6CA8.thumb.png.b665d7cfd4b05302fb926638fd59a77f.png

Nightime minimum temperatures: 

FFA2D30D-0F6A-4862-904F-2F6A16FC1D25.thumb.png.f586435e399dac1d879dd8a3aa10126f.png

670B66AC-7E08-4781-9704-265F59BE1A1D.thumb.png.793ec929a5163b85ef672c54e031834d.png

C806BDC9-1BF4-41A1-A829-0C481E830737.thumb.png.5c997dca8770e527469fa7466e3d1b16.png

E5BF337B-999E-413B-863D-3C91A306B144.thumb.png.bf68d939896241081f3f98f4bcf54192.png

A34A1C26-9CD0-4762-8E03-A439956F7246.thumb.png.bff85a63668b9e02afa78de7d67114b7.png

Sunday night and into Monday morning looks to be the coldest period in general with temperatures probably unlikely to get above freezing in some Northern spots. Especially during clearer skies. Could be quite frosty for some Northern parts that morning. Though nights in general look to be quite chilly in for all areas at times.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
12 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Re:- the ecm

it could be as early as 1st Oct for the new ecm with subscibers seing the hourly resolution.

 

 

There's going to be an ECM pub run?! Make it happen, @SylvainTV:smile:

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
16 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BTW this doesn't mean we will get them though, I cant see meteociel forking out a huge sum of money just to then show them to us.

meteociel and others are reproducing the free data only. if this data is behind paywall then it wont be available for the majority

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

meteociel and others are reproducing the free data only. if this data is behind paywall then it wont be available for the majority

Yes, thought so, looks like we will be reliant on you to up your weatherbell subscription and then just describe any interesting bits to the rest of us!!  we could have done with these new charts around Dec 11th 2017.

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Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

12z GFS moving to the UKMO evolution that its been touting for the last 36-48 hours

Snow showers to lower levels in Northern Scotland & possibly Shetland...

3847C836-6C1D-4672-947B-99D776FFFDEC.thumb.png.b52dd5ea7324b0f84e2aa7d70ee356fc.png

More urgently Steve.... Get your phone charged 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I don't like the last 2 GFS runs in FI, looks a precursor pattern to a ginormous November PV to me.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I don't like the last 2 GFS runs in FI, looks a precursor pattern to a ginormous November PV to me.

Its still Sept Feb !!

Lets see where we are in another 4 weeks time.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Its still Sept Feb !!

Lets see where we are in another 4 weeks time.

but that's a classic +OPI, which has a very high correlation with +AO +NAO winters.

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