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Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
47 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Wintery charts still showing at the back end of the GFS runs . These from the 6z . IMG_2586.thumb.PNG.0f0140cfe23903401360cbf9905949bf.PNG

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Would be a big ask to get snow down South in early October, But here is hoping. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
3 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Would be a big ask to get snow down South in early October, But here is hoping. 

It can happen in October but it is quite rare especially down south . I'm just liking the overall bigger picture tho . Atlantic blocked and no raging W to SW winds . The Alantic has been dead since the SSW in February . Let's hope it stays that way leading up to winter . 

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
13 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

It can happen in October but it is quite rare especially down south . I'm just liking the overall bigger picture tho . Atlantic blocked and no raging W to SW winds . The Alantic has been dead since the SSW in February . Let's hope it stays that way leading up to winter . 

Atlantic been dead? Certainly don't agree with that but the jet stream in general has been more Northerly.

Quite a normal ounlock for September, no surprises the GFS bomb of a low pressure system is alot more shallow and uninteresting although the potential was there. 

Could very well see the first widespread ground frost and perhaps fog in the early part of next week though. Proper signs of Autumn.

Edited by Geordiesnow
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
13 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Atlantic been dead? Certainly don't agree with that but the jet stream in general has been more Northerly.

Quite a normal ounlock for September, no surprises the GFS bomb of a low pressure system is alot more shallow and uninteresting although the potential was there. 

Could very well see the first widespread ground frost and perhaps fog in the early part of next week though. Proper signs of Autumn.

I know up there it's a bit different @geordiesnow buts it's not been raging . The jet stream has definitely been a lot weaker since the SSW . 

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
10 hours ago, mb018538 said:

We may possibly squeak another warm day or two out next thursday/friday....but other than that, it's hardly surprising, it'll be October in 9 days!

NOAA anomalies showing a strong mid atlantic high....winds sweeping down from a northerly quadrant as we head into October.

814day.03.gif

looks a fair assessment from the chart shown !!

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Warm day or 2....for me there’ll be more like 4 or 5 warm ‘days’.  Liking the ECM and slight shifting

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
16 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Warm day or 2....for me there’ll be more like 4 or 5 warm ‘days’.  Liking the ECM and slight shifting

 

BFTP

its that time of year when a slight adjustment in the high pressure will make a big difference to conditions on the ground

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Well after Sunday it's looking settled any which way!

Heres the models take at T192:

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Fine few days, then the question of where we go next, not obvious on today's output.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Euro is more settled however the GFS from day 9 through 16 is highly unsettled.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Euro is more settled however the GFS from day 9 through 16 is highly unsettled.

The end of the gfs 12z op is well below the mean for SLP....so maybe not representative of the overall picture.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Yet another S'ly tracking jet on the 18z, could the polar front take up an unusually early home in France this year.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
10 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

I know up there it's a bit different @geordiesnow buts it's not been raging . The jet stream has definitely been a lot weaker since the SSW . 

Although you should not expect a raging jet in summer to start with. We definately seen the jet stream on average more Northerly but with the cold weather over Canada the jet has become stronger but its going to start tracking SW to NE on a northerly path which means high pressure over England and Wales for the early part of next week. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

Although you should not expect a raging jet in summer to start with. We definately seen the jet stream on average more Northerly but with the cold weather over Canada the jet has become stronger but its going to start tracking SW to NE on a northerly path which means high pressure over England and Wales for the early part of next week. 

Make the most of that because after the next few weeks - different story.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Number 2 would be the ideal start to Oct, PV sliced open before its even started to form, OPI through the floor.

gensnh-2-1-372_gca4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Number 2 would be the ideal start to Oct, PV sliced open before its even started to form, OPI through the floor.

gensnh-2-1-372_gca4.png

If there's one thing the past couple of years has taught me, it's that a disorganised October vortex gives absolutely 0 guarantees going forward into winter.

P.S, why does March seem to be the new winter?

glbz700MonInd6.gif

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

If there's one thing the past couple of years has taught me, it's that a disorganised October vortex gives absolutely 0 guarantees going forward into winter.

P.S, why does March seem to be the new winter?

glbz700MonInd6.gif

Yes I do actually agree with that, I wonder if its climate change, the OPI seemed to correlate with the following winters AO / NAO in the 70s and 80s when re-analyzed but didn't work the first (and only) year it was used in real time. On this occasion though I would still prefer a slow and disorganised vortex.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Lots of high pressure on offer this morning - after tomorrow’s disturbance. Looks like staying settled out to day 10 and beyond, with the high edging out west on day 5/6, before starting to move east back over the uk for next weekend. Could be some chilly mornings, though warming up a bit through the week.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Lots of high pressure on offer this morning - after tomorrow’s disturbance. Looks like staying settled out to day 10 and beyond, with the high edging out west on day 5/6, before starting to move east back over the uk for next weekend. Could be some chilly mornings, though warming up a bit through the week.

Anyone seeking active autumnal weather will no doubt be sorely disappointed and probably contemplating giving the forum a rest for the foreseeable if the latest overnight ecm run verifies. These charts indicative of a prolonged dry spell with a blocking high meandering around but going nowhere anytime soon. Pouring down here in County Cork  as I type, but I suspect it'll be the last drop for quite some time to come.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
23 hours ago, carinthian said:

This mornings chat with the team from over here is still some uncertainty over the exact track of Sundays Low. However, their own model continues to show a more southerly track than some of the main models and UKMO fax input. They expect the Low to deepen but not intensely east of the meridian and move through at a pace before slowing somewhat over the North European Plain. Some strong winds for a time in its wake to affect our part of the Eastern Alps. Snow portal service should get an update later today when the track of this development firms up. Still strong pressure rises backed for the middle of next week and longer term thoughts indicate retrogressive developments by the end of the month with October starting a cooler/colder phase for much of Europe including the British Isles.

C

Morning all . looks like our team have got the track of the wave crossing on Sunday into Monday about spot on and that's a little bit further south as they had predicted ( re : above post ).The centre will cross central Europe and continue to deepen slightly but still move on at a pace and will produce some very strong winds, possibly damaging gusts, for a time behind the cold front after its passage, especially for the Northern Alps of Austria. Winds seems more of a problem than any temporary snowfall at altitude at this stage, Developments will be carefully watched over the next 24 hours.

 

fax48s.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
21 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

It can happen in October but it is quite rare especially down south . I'm just liking the overall bigger picture tho . Atlantic blocked and no raging W to SW winds . The Alantic has been dead since the SSW in February . Let's hope it stays that way leading up to winter . 

It can happen?? It's extremely rare even at the end of October- the event in 2008 was a historic event! Absolutely no chance of any snow in early October, and I would be shocked if we saw any before the end of the month.

Even air frost has become very rare in October- we've hardly had one in these parts in the last 15 years. 2010 was one rare occasion when we did.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
11 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Make the most of that because after the next few weeks - different story.

Keep speculating....eventually you will be right. High pressure domination right out into FI from the ECM...could be plenty of pleasant weather on offer next week. Cool nights but warming up by day leading to fairly warm afternoons.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

It can happen?? It's extremely rare even at the end of October- the event in 2008 was a historic event! Absolutely no chance of any snow in early October, and I would be shocked if we saw any before the end of the month.

Even air frost has become very rare in October- we've hardly had one in these parts in the last 15 years. 2010 was one rare occasion when we did.

Not really getting your point ? I said it's rare for it to snow in October as you have , but it still can happen as you have said again . So bit confused of what your trying to get at ? As for it's rare getting a frost in October , it looks like we're gonna get some at the start of the week . Falling to around 2 degrees on Monday and we're only in September . Sign of things to come in October . We're in autumn now not summer , the warm sunny days will soon be gone . 

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