Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

[ICE COLD]

Day 10 on the ECM and some quite cold 850s lurking to the North East . Just need the high to pull out west further into the alantic and up towards Greenland and then there be over the uk . Got a feeling we're gonna be in for an early winter this year . #beast from the North and East this year

Edited September 20, 2018 by ICE COLD

[feb1991blizzard]

34 minutes ago, Will Whittaker said:

Batten down the hatches. Nasty. Parts of my county are likely to crumble into the sea. Hopefully not my part.

I don't wish to be morbid, but if the ECM 12z is correct, you could well snuff it on sunday.

[Yarmy]

51 minutes ago, Will Whittaker said:

Batten down the hatches. Nasty. Parts of my county are likely to crumble into the sea. Hopefully not my part.

Pub run looks particularly intense at T72 which is high tide too.

[feb1991blizzard]

A fairly potent N'ly on the GFS 18z.

Get set - its coming!

Been telling you all for weeks, trust me, there is going to be some very severe weather over the next few months of allsorts, something for everyone - all types of severe weather fans.

Edited September 20, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

P7 even better - a band of snow moving down the pennines.

0c breached on London eps graph.

 

Edited September 20, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Jordan S]

46 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

P7 even better - a band of snow moving down the pennines.

0c breached on London eps graph.

 

When is this being progged for?.

[feb1991blizzard]

45 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

When is this being progged for?.

October - estimated landing date uncertain,

[Jordan S]

37 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

October - estimated landing date uncertain,

It would be at this range

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

 

i know its  a  long way  off but fantasy world is looking very different  to the summer  charts!!!>winter coming <!!

[bluearmy]

Pretty sure  that our extended warm period is now at an end ....... and expect a taste of late autumn/perhaps early winter week 2/3. Latest ec46 has Europe T2 below average throughout. 

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Pretty sure  that our extended warm period is now at an end ....... and expect a taste of late autumn/perhaps early winter week 2/3. Latest ec46 has Europe T2 below average throughout. 

We may possibly squeak another warm day or two out next thursday/friday....but other than that, it's hardly surprising, it'll be October in 9 days!

NOAA anomalies showing a strong mid atlantic high....winds sweeping down from a northerly quadrant as we head into October.

[johnholmes]

.winds sweeping down from a northerly quadrant as we head into October.

Not sure where you get that idea from?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A fairly potent N'ly on the GFS 18z.

Get set - its coming!

Been telling you all for weeks, trust me, there is going to be some very severe weather over the next few months of allsorts, something for everyone - all types of severe weather fans.

but gone on 00Z, good as for southern members that chart not good, can understand northern members wanting it

Edited September 21, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Snowyowl9]

Looks like this will give the wettest September since 2012 now,we have today blustery showers,feeling much cooler.

More rain tomorrow night.

And sunday a complete washout,cold and very wet,with a chilly strong NEly possible later.

[Yarmy]

Sunday's storm appears to be tracking further south, with Suffolk/Essex bearing the brunt albeit somewhat weaker than some of the output over the past few days. 

The high-res WRF on Sunday evening:

 

 

[mb018538]

28 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Sunday's storm appears to be tracking further south, with Suffolk/Essex bearing the brunt albeit somewhat weaker than some of the output over the past few days. 

The high-res WRF on Sunday evening:

 

 

Compared with what was being modelled a few days ago, it doesn't look to be as severe as it could have been - updated UKMO fax chart for sunday lunchtime looks windy for a time, but the system moves off very quickly, and pressure rises in the SE from 1005mb to around 1030mb in 12 hours! That's some change!

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

13 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Gusts around 70mph for South Wales.

Thanks very much

[carinthian]

22 hours ago, carinthian said:

The view from the team over here very much on the view being shown from UKMO model in the shorter term. The track of Sundays low may be even a bit further south than shown on the latest fax but expected to move through at a pace. Obviously, now changes the forecast for us in the Eastern Alps with a change in the present spell of warm benign weather to a more unsettled spell to start next week with wind rain and snow at elevation for a time as indicated in the upper air profile chart for Tuesday. A bit of a shock for us over here. Longer term, the high settling over Western Europe with temps recovering and then the thought from our experts is for the high to retrogress into the Atlantic to open the doors to a much cooler end to the month for many in Europe ( including the UK )

c

This mornings chat with the team from over here is still some uncertainty over the exact track of Sundays Low. However, their own model continues to show a more southerly track than some of the main models and UKMO fax input. They expect the Low to deepen but not intensely east of the meridian and move through at a pace before slowing somewhat over the North European Plain. Some strong winds for a time in its wake to affect our part of the Eastern Alps. Snow portal service should get an update later today when the track of this development firms up. Still strong pressure rises backed for the middle of next week and longer term thoughts indicate retrogressive developments by the end of the month with October starting a cooler/colder phase for much of Europe including the British Isles.

C

[Man With Beard]

37 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Sunday's storm appears to be tracking further south, with Suffolk/Essex bearing the brunt albeit somewhat weaker than some of the output over the past few days. 

The high-res WRF on Sunday evening:

 

 

70-75mph gusts in SE corner on ECM this morning, everywhere else gets away with it. Must be a very close thing, with all this toing and froing 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Feel like I’m cherry picking a bit , but the 00Z ECMWF appears to be one of the best models this morning for keeping High Pressure clinging on over the U.K. right to the end of it’s run.

Apart from the odd bit of disturbed weather for North and North-Western areas mid next week, would be generally dry, and I’d imagine warm at times in sunny spells (though varying a bit depending where you are in relation to the high and cloud amounts) and light winds. Nights likely to be chilly. ?

Overall though, all models showing some kind of build of pressure next week. Just a question I guess of how dominant it will end up being and how long the likely less disturbed spell will last.

[carinthian]

55 minutes ago, carinthian said:

This mornings chat with the team from over here is still some uncertainty over the exact track of Sundays Low. However, their own model continues to show a more southerly track than some of the main models and UKMO fax input. They expect the Low to deepen but not intensely east of the meridian and move through at a pace before slowing somewhat over the North European Plain. Some strong winds for a time in its wake to affect our part of the Eastern Alps. Snow portal service should get an update later today when the track of this development firms up. Still strong pressure rises backed for the middle of next week and longer term thoughts indicate retrogressive developments by the end of the month with October starting a cooler/colder phase for much of Europe including the British Isles.

C

The chart below for the middle of next week shows a powerful upper ridge of high pressure over Western Europe and a deep trough to the east. Also, a big contrast in 850mb temps with +10c plus to -10c anomaly values from west to east. Think the Arctic air mix over the Eastern Alps will give some snow on Tuesday for a time at elevation. Snow portal service could come into effect later.

C

Edited September 21, 2018 by carinthian

[MR EXTREMES]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Pretty sure  that our extended warm period is now at an end ....... and expect a taste of late autumn/perhaps early winter week 2/3. Latest ec46 has Europe T2 below average throughout. 

 

11 minutes ago, carinthian said:

The chart below for the middle of next week shows a powerful upper ridge of high pressure over Western Europe and a deep trough to the east. Also, a big contrast in 850mb temps with +10c plus to -10c anomaly values from west to east. Think the Arctic air mix over the Eastern Alps will give some snow on Tuesday for a time at elevation. Snow portal service could come into effect later.

C

interesting as having lows into southern southeastern europe help aid a quick surge in snow cover for some.

and to see a mid atlantic block is also rather exciting especially if strong and sustained.

either this sends lows under or over, also allowing perhaps either a split developing polar vortex weakened in strength or sustained over scandinavia side of the arctic.

of coarse this not a forecast just some ideas on where we might be heading through rest of autumn into winter.

low solar activity or should i say sustained spotless activity,hurricaine season bit more lively than expected. enso weak el nino.

and actually a very blocked summer and blocking at the end of winter into the first part of spring which gave us a taste of true winter.

something telling me this winter could well be close to winter of 2009/10.

the models today do see a bit of warmth flirting with southern uk but as you progress through all the main models temps eventually decline and you can see the heat in europe slipping away into southern spain and north africa.

unsettled to our north but settled here in the uk and into scandinavia unsettled into central europe and the mediterranean so uncle barty not here yet to ruin the christmas party.

been a classic year of weather watching lets hope we continue into winter with the same exciting extremes without loss of life though.

[carinthian]

8 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

 

interesting as having lows into southern southeastern europe help aid a quick surge in snow cover for some.

and to see a mid atlantic block is also rather exciting especially if strong and sustained.

either this sends lows under or over, also allowing perhaps either a split developing polar vortex weakened in strength or sustained over scandinavia side of the arctic.

of coarse this not a forecast just some ideas on where we might be heading through rest of autumn into winter.

low solar activity or should i say sustained spotless activity,hurricaine season bit more lively than expected. enso weak el nino.

and actually a very blocked summer and blocking at the end of winter into the first part of spring which gave us a taste of true winter.

something telling me this winter could well be close to winter of 2009/10.

the models today do see a bit of warmth flirting with southern uk but as you progress through all the main models temps eventually decline and you can see the heat in europe slipping away into southern spain and north africa.

unsettled to our north but settled here in the uk and into scandinavia unsettled into central europe and the mediterranean so uncle barty not here yet to ruin the christmas party.

been a classic year of weather watching lets hope we continue into winter with the same exciting extremes without loss of life though.

Certainly been a interesting year for weather watches across Europe/ UK. Seem to have had everything with some extremes in the mix. Longer term winter predictions, I have no idea , there are plenty of indicators but have been around long enough to expect the unexpected, if you know what I mean. Short bursts of cold and snow will occur but a 62/63 or a 78/79  prolonged event would be a rare occurrence. As for 2018/19 winter, who knows,  hopefully a cold snowy one would be my preference for here and for you snow lover back home.

C

[carinthian]

850mb temp anomaly chart would indicate a cold Monday for the British Isles, especially in Eastern Parts.

C

[feb1991blizzard]

October CFS theme continued.

 

GFS showing a possible route to get there.

Edited September 21, 2018 by feb1991blizzard