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Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018


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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
33 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

That’s a big high pressure for next week! 1040mb 

airpressure.png 

Next week looking sunny settled.

but it's so close to either heatwave or chilly.

Interesting hurricane season already.

Bit of everything this year so far.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM tonight develops a very serious storm over East Anglia this Sunday, with gusts up to 100mph on the Norfolk coast

Thank you, can't really see that looking at the 24hrs charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

Sorry for blank post above, would remove all the text. Having now looked at ECMWF Charts on Weather.US is does indeed show some strong winds, more strong than tonight in fact, so we are no closer to knwoing the answer it seems. But since it is now being shown on the ECMWF rather than GFS shouldn't we have some more confidence?

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2 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Sorry for blank post above, would remove all the text. Having now looked at ECMWF Charts on Weather.US is does indeed show some strong winds, more strong than tonight in fact, so we are no closer to knwoing the answer it seems. But since it is now being shown on the ECMWF rather than GFS shouldn't we have some more confidence?

I'm in a poor 3G area atm so can't look at the charts. Could you please tell me if possible the latest on Sunday's storm for South Wales, last I checked it showed gusts of 80 mph in Swansea 

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Some remarkable charts showing for early October.

gensnh-18-0-288_dim3.png

Looovely chart but I'd rather be seeing it around late Nov, Dec and other winter months as it won't get quite cold enough at this time of year I don't think. :) ?️

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
9 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

I'm in a poor 3G area atm so can't look at the charts. Could you please tell me if possible the latest on Sunday's storm for South Wales, last I checked it showed gusts of 80 mph in Swansea 

Gusts around 70mph for South Wales.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
8 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Looovely chart but I'd rather be seeing it around late Nov, Dec and other winter months as it won't get quite cold enough at this time of year I don't think. :) ?️

True but 0ct 2008 was a precursor to something else later that winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Another thought on Sunday's storm - now I know we're going round the houses a bit on this one, but it is uncanny how close the UKMO and ECM are at both T72 and T96. Suggests the UKMO may have gone the same way at T78/T81?

ECM1-72.GIF?20-0  UW72-21.GIF?20-19

ECM1-96.GIF?20-0  UW96-21.GIF?20-19

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Here's a few snap shots on Sunday's storm . Wales and the west 70mph winds . IMG_2578.thumb.PNG.e63fa37951efb7f5d9cee9156595739a.PNG

And then the east takes a battering  and still very windy midlands and the south east . Check out the last chart 111mph on the east coast IMG_2573.thumb.PNG.51005bc4a17b49a953632b1be3fc28f1.PNGIMG_2576.thumb.PNG.c8a36162370cd251485f921384cb72da.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
58 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Some remarkable charts showing for early October.

gensnh-18-0-288_dim3.png

dislike, in my location early oct way too early, that would probably give a high of 10 degrees with rain showers

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

dislike, in my location early oct way too early, that would probably give a high of 10 degrees with rain showers

You never know, we may find ourselves in a similar position to October 2008.

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
10 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

You never know, we may find ourselves in a similar position to October 2008.

well our local bbc   didnt see to worried  about the sunday storm

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Just now, tinybill said:

well our local bbc   didnt see to worried  about the sunday storm

Hi, I'm very unsure about Sunday it seems the model are not really any clearer in regards to Sundays potential Storm. I wonder what the more experienced people on this Forum think will happen on Sunday. As I'm not expecting it to be as bad as tonight but I maybe wrong looking at the ECMWF.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

When the storms abruptly cease on Monday, attention turns to the settled phase that swiftly follows.  All models show a lengthy period of settled and dry weather which should still feel warm in sunshine, maybe cool in the mornings.  Slight differences in the exact location of the high, those that have it centered to the west also have high pressure to the east.  Models at T168:

image.thumb.jpg.821bb715c5602643f7259d5fd088dfcc.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.4fd83ebfa19ee6c3b83d71d1eaac68fb.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.d8e12ee5fab37153f2f9eb39be2bbb87.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.82a4225d34fd207ce5be3e38e4bbd0fb.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.327929f67dd570ef73e36265e2ffc9be.jpg

And yes I've still more confidence in this next Thursday than I have in how the Sunday storm or no storm will pan out. 

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

Sundays low is one to watch gfs or ECM I note its been upgraded down graded I think it going to be more serious than the models are showing, Even  at 72 hrs big difference, batten down the hatches. 

Edited by snowice
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The CFS on almost every run for the last 20 or 30 has shown a below average 850hpa mean profile for October, and most have shown between -2c and -4c anomaly.

cfs-1-10-2018_ugz5.png

That doesn't mean it is going to snow!  Either in October or in the winter.  That chart just suggests coolish rain, yuk.  Better to focus on outputs from the likes of CFS on pressure patterns in Barents or Kara seas or the Taymyr peninsula, to give a better indication of how the polar vortex is shaping up for winter proper, in that regard discussion in other threads suggest a lot of promise for cold - in winter proper!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That doesn't mean it is going to snow!  Either in October or in the winter.  That chart just suggests coolish rain, yuk.  Better to focus on outputs from the likes of CFS on pressure patterns in Barents or Kara seas or the Taymyr peninsula, to give a better indication of how the polar vortex is shaping up for winter proper, in that regard discussion in other threads suggest a lot of promise for cold - in winter proper!

But the fact that its showing such a large -ve anomaly suggests a favourable pattern is there where as the default pattern produces mild gunk in October, that said, I am not massively convinced that it necessarily means it will be repeated in Nov or Dec either so you do have a point but I am not convinced we are going to get an SSW on the scale of last year so on balance I would prefer a slow start for the vortex with ridges being thown up towards Greenland.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But the fact that its showing such a large -ve anomaly suggests a favourable pattern is there where as the default pattern produces mild gunk in October, that said, I am not massively convinced that it necessarily means it will be repeated in Nov or Dec either so you do have a point but I am not convinced we are going to get an SSW on the scale of last year so on balance I would prefer a slow start for the vortex with ridges being thown up towards Greenland.

Think I largely agree with this actually, a slow start to the vortex definitely preferred because the strengthening west QBO will reduce the likelihood of a late SSW like last year as the winter goes on.  I'm not ruling out an early SSW though!  A while since we've had one, but I think it's on the cards at least.

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Posted
  • Location: North Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme warmth And Extreme blizzards.
  • Location: North Norfolk

Batten down the hatches. Nasty. Parts of my county are likely to crumble into the sea. Hopefully not my part.

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