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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

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To get some idea of the windiness expected throughout the UK expected over the next few days, this is the ARPEGE showing the maximum wind gusts at sea level predicted for the next 72 hours....

arpegeuk-52-72-0.thumb.png.fd545db23aafc3f10a83fa7877c327e6.png

Everywhere in the UK can expect gusts in excess of 60mph but that central belt of bright pink indicates gusts up to or exceeding 90mph...

Brace yourselves...

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Not looking too clever for those travelling to/from Southern Uk on Sunday/Monday with disruptions possible to air/rail/road travel by fallen trees ūüôĄ

Hope it gets downgraded to a shallow low or deepens quicker and moves to the North!

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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Current model output looks like this at +144hrs (25th September):

UKMO   ukmo.thumb.GIF.86e4a5d66c6ea893ef94b3d1031c61ce.GIF          ECM   ECM-144.thumb.GIF.1f575a998c84a42bf625b849400926c3.GIF

GFS      gfs-0-144.thumb.png.841dbf4866756ef2e79fd290dd398262.png           GEM  gem-0-144.thumb.png.a7112c94960a083aabfc91d65c26e798.png

I've got no roof and the power's out, but at least the weather's nice!   

 

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18 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

To get some idea of the windiness expected throughout the UK expected over the next few days, this is the ARPEGE showing the maximum wind gusts at sea level predicted for the next 72 hours....

arpegeuk-52-72-0.thumb.png.fd545db23aafc3f10a83fa7877c327e6.png

Everywhere in the UK can expect gusts in excess of 60mph but that central belt of bright pink indicates gusts up to or exceeding 90mph...

Brace yourselves...

Scary - this is based upon Friday's storm - but this is actually the only run that has blown up this particular storm so much, the ECM/GFS both strong but not above 70mph.

Just how good is the ARGEPE at wind speeds within 48 hours? We will find out!

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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Scary - this is based upon Friday's storm - but this is actually the only run that has blown up this particular storm so much, the ECM/GFS both strong but not above 70mph.

Just how good is the ARGEPE at wind speeds within 48 hours? We will find out!

Actually the icon 6z has higher windspeeds than the arrperge at that timescale  

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10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Scary - this is based upon Friday's storm - but this is actually the only run that has blown up this particular storm so much, the ECM/GFS both strong but not above 70mph.

Just how good is the ARGEPE at wind speeds within 48 hours? We will find out!

The Arpege model is usually very good with wind strengths it was good at forecasting the unnamed vigorous storm that swept through earlier this year as an example but the icon is going along the same idea of 70+mph but still large uncertainty I personally think arpege has got this system right for tomorrow but as always time¬†will tell.ūüôā

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The Icon 12z still makes very little of Sunday's storm:

icon-0-102.png?19-12

 

Friday morning's storm is a nasty little surprise though:

icon-0-42.png?19-12

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8 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

The Icon 12z still makes very little of Sunday's storm:

icon-0-102.png?19-12

 

Friday morning's storm is a nasty little surprise though:

icon-0-42.png?19-12

Forgot what storm it was called back in January that brought very damaging winds across the East Midlands and East Anglia?This could be similar. 

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1 hour ago, jordan smith said:

The Arpege model is usually very good with wind strengths it was good at forecasting the unnamed vigorous storm that swept through earlier this year as an example but the icon is going along the same idea of 70+mph but still large uncertainty I personally think arpege has got this system right for tomorrow but as always time¬†will tell.ūüôā

Same here. I agree.

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GFS 12z first hints of dropping the storm well to the mad intensity that we have seen lately, be Intresting to see how this goes, lots of runs still to get through 

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10 minutes ago, Surrey said:

GFS 12z first hints of dropping the storm well to the mad intensity that we have seen lately, be Intresting to see how this goes, lots of runs still to get through 

Let’s hope the trend continues! 

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11 minutes ago, Surrey said:

GFS 12z first hints of dropping the storm well to the mad intensity that we have seen lately, be Intresting to see how this goes, lots of runs still to get through 

Ashame, I was looking forward to a named Storm.

Edited by AppleUK 123

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Indeed, as Surrey mentioned, the Low Pressure system for Sunday on the GFS 12Z looks a little less grumpy. Would still be some strong winds for places, particularly on the Low’s Northern flank, but certainly less intense than it was on the previous run:

ACC286D5-A516-4928-8EB2-EDBF19E50A8A.thumb.png.85214651cdd6bc7bb925972aa70b69db.png

F20993B8-0CCA-4FB6-B150-85D1F8791B52.thumb.png.b4acde38b9f72cba9516b892af79021f.png

Edited by DiagonalRedLine

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Just now, AppleUK 123 said:

Ashame, I was looking forward to a named Storm.

Well, the high RES models are now trying to pick up on tomorrow the met Office issued a wind warning for tomorrow afternoon the icon and the Arpege have this and I'm scratching my head here because the GFS is having non of it.. 

These are max wind gusts up to 6am Friday morning... I'm certain the Arpege and icon have a bias towards over doing wind gusts.. 

max_gustskph_042.thumb.jpg.8459da76ad1914df51a5dfac588d492e.jpg

What's more concerning is the approach.. 

gustkph_036.thumb.jpg.aee659070f270b59440d1963a0e08529.jpg

I've been watching this little feature go from nothing to semi major 

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I think once we see the hour by hour slides from the GFS we'll still see a very bad storm, as this is where it gets to by T102

102-602UK.GIF?19-12

This is an average wind speed chart, showing 120-130kph just off the Kent coast (that's 75-80mph MEAN wind speeds, hurricane force). To me this means the storm was developing over the UK, which is worst case scenario. However, it is a bit further south. 

For balance, UKMO not interested (but that does not surprise me) 

UW96-21.GIF?19-18

But it looks more interested in the Friday storm now, this is just after exit

UW48-21.GIF?19-18

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15 minutes ago, Surrey said:

GFS 12z first hints of dropping the storm well to the mad intensity that we have seen lately, be Intresting to see how this goes, lots of runs still to get through 

True for south England at 96h but 105h has the first large shade of 140 knot I've seen in any of the runs so far on. The intensity is still there but seems a little more localised around the East coast. The trend will indeed be interesting.

102-289UK.gif

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6 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Well, the high RES models are now trying to pick up on tomorrow the met Office issued a wind warning for tomorrow afternoon the icon and the Arpege have this and I'm scratching my head here because the GFS is having non of it.. 

These are max wind gusts up to 6am Friday morning... I'm certain the Arpege and icon have a bias towards over doing wind gusts.. 

max_gustskph_042.thumb.jpg.8459da76ad1914df51a5dfac588d492e.jpg

What's more concerning is the approach.. 

gustkph_036.thumb.jpg.aee659070f270b59440d1963a0e08529.jpg

I've been watching this little feature go from nothing to semi major 

Hi Surrey I have to say I haven't really paid much attention to Thursday/ Friday as I thought Sunday would be worst but interesting how the HI-RES models shows the potential for strong winds during Thursday/Friday while the GFS doesn't but then on the other hand the HI-RES really aren't showing anything significant for Sunday yet the GFS is! I'm still uncertain if here in Central England whether the worst winds will be Thursday/ Friday or Sunday, whats's your feeling, do you think they will upgrade warnings tomorrow. Regarding Ali I believe the ICON was pretty good.

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1 minute ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Hi Surrey I have to say I haven't really paid much attention to Thursday/ Friday as I thought Sunday would be worst but interesting how the HI-RES models shows the potential for strong winds during Thursday/Friday while the GFS doesn't but then on the other hand the HI-RES really aren't showing anything significant for Sunday yet the GFS is! I'm still uncertain if here in Central England whether the worst winds will be Thursday/ Friday or Sunday, whats's your feeling, do you think they will upgrade warnings tomorrow. Regarding Ali I believe the ICON was pretty good.

 

10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I think once we see the hour by hour slides from the GFS we'll still see a very bad storm, as this is where it gets to by T102

102-602UK.GIF?19-12

This is an average wind speed chart, showing 120-130kph just off the Kent coast (that's 75-80mph MEAN wind speeds, hurricane force). To me this means the storm was developing over the UK, which is worst case scenario. However, it is a bit further south. 

For balance, UKMO not interested (but that does not surprise me) 

UW96-21.GIF?19-18

But it looks more interested in the Friday storm now, this is just after exit

UW48-21.GIF?19-18

That's pretty interesting, if the UKMET model has underestimated Friday then could it be possible it is underestimating Sunday?

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ARPEGE is not backing down on the Friday storm, these are maximum gusts between now and Friday evening on the 12Z, still hitting the 90s in northern England 

arpegeuk-52-57-0.png?19-18

I do now recall this model going a bit crazy over Opehlia last year, so hopefully it is just not very good at dealing with high winds. 

If it's right though, this is going to be carnage. We've had train chaos today here in the south over trees falling down under 50mph gusts. With trees still in leaf, goodness knows what might happen on Friday, let alone Sunday. 

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3 minutes ago, nicktabs said:

The intensity is still there but seems a little more localised around the East coast. The trend will indeed be interesting.

102-289UK.gif

Admittedly was guilty of saying the storm looked less intense. But fair enough.

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Looking beyond the stormy period of the next five days (and to me the Sunday 'event' looks like one of those classic 'southwards adjustment with each run' scenarios), there seems to be increasing cross model agreement for a much more settled few days at the beginning of next week, with high pressure very much in charge.

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Last one from me for a while. The ICON is very similar to the ARPEGE for Friday. That is worrying. It is also pretty close to the GFS for Sunday, actually, just that it deepens the low a tiny bit later and only the very far SE gets the very strong winds. 

And to add to that, the ARPEGE looks like it will be a blend of the GFS and ICON for Sunday. 

All in all, not good to have multiple models going for two storms that explode over the UK, and within T96. 

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