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Saturday evening into Sunday 2nd Storm

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Very uncertain this one so may not even happen. If it does there should plenty of widespread flooding and plenty of wind damage.

Note I'm calling this the 2nd storm as Helena doesn't count as a storm and got unnecessary warnings and too much attention once it was clear that it wasn't going to be anything special bar the warmth it would bring.

strong winds sunday.pbx.png

deep low sat sun.pbx.png

rain sat sun.png

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Now on the ECM as well so chances of it happening go up a bit.

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One to watch for sure,not a storm to a storm on ECM... severe NWly gales on GFS.

Recm1201.gif

Edited by Snowyowl9

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1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

This doesn't look good. When is high tide for the east coast that day?

GFSOPUK00_114_9.png

Around 18:30 near the wash and 19:00 within the Welland, Nene and Ouse tidal reaches, and then 20:30-21:00 around Yarmouth and Lowestoft. Very worrying. 

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Quite a bit of action going on over the next few days.  The storm on Sunday looks very nasty and needs to watched. Friday early hours is also looking rather troublesome  The Aperge (sometimes known for overcooking wind speeds)  shows  60mph+ inland over central areas  and maybe winds gusting over 70mph in the northwest.    certainly not boring weather.  Edit   the Icon 6z also shows very strong winds in these areas  maybe a touch higher

 

arpege-11-45-0.png?19-12  arpege-11-46-0.png?19-12                 iconeu-11-44-0.png?19-11

Edited 2 minutes ago by weirpig
 

Forever  Black Country And England

Oh dear o 
me 'art 'angs low 
an' how t' rise it 
I dow 'no

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GFS taking it further south at least,not as that's much comfort looking at this.

Rtavn961.gif

 

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Quote

Ecm more reserved as usual against gfs, fax currently tracks it 987mb off NIRE coast,

we are coming out of a neap tide with 5m high sunday tides on lincs coasts so not a full spring but alerts if this bombs cyclogenesis saturday?

 

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3 minutes ago, pip22 said:

ICON still showing 100mph winds into NW England!!

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=53.63;-3.31;8&l=gust&t=20180921/04

Fri Morning.

Indeed a large area from the north west through the Midlands exposed to damaging winds   with trees still in leaf it could cause huge issues 

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My hunch is that the Saturday/Sunday system will edge steadily southwards on the models, ending up affecting Northern France & the south coast - but that's only based on similar things which have happened before. Remains to be seen how strong it'll be - anything varying from very weak to very powerful looks on the cards at the moment, but again, I'd be surprised if the GFS isn't over-doing it somewhat.

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Personally, i'd disregard the UKMO chart.

The MetO clearly think there's potential. The FAX charts are still going for something and I suspect the MetO's other data is too.

BRAEU_120.thumb.gif.02598b5ac1dd89f0b546adcceb7e079d.gif

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Still uncertainty all round if the ECM backs away I would the chances are increasingly unlikely. Next few runs should settle it. Normal practice is to downgrade as we get nearer the time. Ali the exception to this while Helena followed the downgrade path religiously into insignificance.

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That's last night`s fax, will have see its all looking uncertain still but I see downgrades too.

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40 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Personally, i'd disregard the UKMO chart.

The MetO clearly think there's potential. The FAX charts are still going for something and I suspect the MetO's other data is too.

BRAEU_120.thumb.gif.02598b5ac1dd89f0b546adcceb7e079d.gif

That's yesterday's fax chart

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5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

That's yesterday's fax chart

I know. The point is, for the last few days, the FAX charts have had the developments for something stormy drawn in to them, whereas the UKMO computer model hasn't.

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ECM kills it off as well. So chances pretty small.

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Well does look dead in the water now.

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