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Storm Helene - ex tropical system for UK

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57 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Downgrading continues and warnings still up. The active storms later in the week have also been downgraded somewhat but still stronger than Helena.

Looks worse for the south, Thursday/Friday night but still away to go

GFSOPUK00_96_1.pngGFSOPUK00_96_9.png

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2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Downgrading continues and warnings still up. The active storms later in the week have also been downgraded somewhat but still stronger than Helena.

It's much better to keep warning and it turns out to be nothing much than take them down and then have lots of complaints if it strengthens. I'm with them on this, a safety first approach is best when dealing with the great unwashed. 

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Wind warnings now issued for Wednesday as Storm Helene pulls away

  • Central, Tayside & Fife
  • Grampian
  • Highlands & Eilean Siar
  • North East England
  • North West England
  • Northern Ireland
  • Orkney & Shetland
  • SW Scotland, Lothian Borders
  • Strathclyde
  • Wales
  • Yorkshire & Humber

Between 06:00 Wed 19th and 22:00 Wed 19th

A spell of very windy weather is expected. Gusts of 50-60 mph are possible inland.

What to expect

  • Road, rail, air and ferry services may be affected, with longer journey times and cancellations possible
  • Some damage to buildings is possible, such as tiles blown from roofs. Falling trees or branches are possible
  • Power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage
  • Injuries and danger to life from flying debris
  • Some roads and bridges may close

Further details

Strong winds affecting parts of western Scotland and Northern Ireland early in the day will continue to strengthen through the morning and then extend across many parts of Scotland and northern England and northwest Wales. For some exposed areas, in particular parts of western Scotland, gusts could reach in excess of 75 mph in places. The gusty winds will be accompanied in places by heavy, squally showers. The winds will gradually ease later on Wednesday, firstly across Northern Ireland, northwest Wales and northern England and then across Scotland.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-09-18

Edited by Summer Sun

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4 hours ago, Wivenswold said:

It's much better to keep warning and it turns out to be nothing much than take them down and then have lots of complaints if it strengthens. I'm with them on this, a safety first approach is best when dealing with the great unwashed. 

No. Warnings need to valid and updated regularly. If there's no threat by their own grading structure they should be removed.

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Updated warning for later today and into tomorrow

Reason for update

Change in validity period and to move the warning areas southwards, to be clear of Northern Ireland and southern Scotland.

Between 21:00 Mon 17th and 18:00 Tue 18th

A spell of strong winds for western and some central parts of the UK during Monday night and Tuesday morning.

What to expect

  • Some damage to trees is possible, for example large branches or trees falling in a few places.
  • Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport are likely
  • Probably some bus and train services affected, with some journeys taking longer
  • Delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges likely
  • Some short term loss of power and other services is possible
  • East Midlands
  • East of England
  • North East England
  • North West England
  • South West England
  • Wales
  • West Midlands
  • Yorkshire & Humber

Further details

Although now expected to bring less strong winds, the remnants of Storm Helene will move northeastwards across Wales and England during Monday night and Tuesday. A spell of strong winds is expected, initially mainly in the far southwest of England and across west and south Wales. The strongest winds then transferring across the Midlands and parts of northern England during Tuesday morning and into the afternoon. Winds are likely to gust 40-50 mph quite widely across the warning area whilst some coasts and hills of southwest England and Wales could have gusts of 55-60 mph.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-09-18

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5 minutes ago, The PIT said:

No. Warnings need to valid and updated regularly. If there's no threat by their own grading structure they should be removed.

It was clearly still relevant anyway as it's been updated.  I didn't say they shouldn't be valid, I was saying that if there's doubt, keep the warnings up. 

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Really is getting warm now the wind is picking up some parts of the SE could be close to 26c tomorrow

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I cannot understand why we are in weather warning area. No strong winds forecast until Wednesday when it starts ramping up and we are not in the warning area for that. So winds gusting to 25 mph tonight and a warning, Tomorrow 42 mph a warning, Wednesday 48 mph no warning. I wouldn't issue one for 48 mph but the GFS is showing much more than that. 

At this rate we will get a warning when a crisp packet moves. I guess on Sunday when 60 to 70 is possible the end is nigh for us.

Edited by The PIT
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Your warning is for potential damage to and caused by broken branches and resultant disruption to travel.  That doesn't seem unreasonable with a mixture of maximum gusts across the models of 36-50mph for South Yorks set against laden trees. That really is enough to cause some serious disruption, one branch can shut down a railway line for hours. There are far more variables than simply the wind speed to consider for each storm. . In this case there's still some variance in the models too which has to be factored in.

While the second and third storms may well be stronger for longer, there's probably a reason they haven't issued a warning yet. If it's really causing you so much angst, why don't you tweet them and ask?  

 

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Wind of 5mph reported from Manchester airport. Thank goodness for that warning, eh?

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2 minutes ago, alr1970 said:

Wind of 5mph reported from Manchester airport. Thank goodness for that warning, eh?

😨

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Lots of rain over Scotland from the RADAR, any warnings out for flooding there? I can only suspect the warnings out for tonight across England and Wales are due to the risk of falling tree's already compromised by the summer heatwave with the risk of dead-branches falling. Other than that it's humid outside but barely a gust of wind.

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

What's the point of this yellow warning in the NE? it's barely even breezy 

Its will strengthen to gale force around tomorrow lunchtime for you, whether it warrants a yellow warning is debatable but then so are a lot of yellow warnings TBH.

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The wind is beginning to pick up here, a little bit. Forecast around 4 hours of circa 40mph gusts during the early hours. It'll be interesting to see how my weatherflow station gets on.

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Starry skies in south Manchester tonight and not a hint aside from the humidity that the airmass outside is the remnants of a ex-Hurricane.

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Dreadful embarrassing at least the warnings have gone. The storm that never was version 2

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I notice the GFS is persisting in looking much stormier than other models, I don't think any UKMO/ECM run has shown anything like it although the UKMO has a weaker storm a bit further north this morning. Virtually nothing on ECM again... though I guess this shows that if the lows/jet interact in the right way there is potential for something.

I'm ready for some sort of weather though, this September is doing what September often does, i.e. reminding me of the Green Day song 'wake me up when September ends'.. (basically it's been flat high pressure ridging down here but not especially sunny and never in a position to give anything notable) :lazy:

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9 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its will strengthen to gale force around tomorrow lunchtime for you, whether it warrants a yellow warning is debatable but then so are a lot of yellow warnings TBH.

Finally, decided to remove the warning maybe they'll have more luck tomorrow with Storm Ali

🤔

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 Top gusts have been 54-64 mph Wales, Devon, Isles of Scilly this morning. Mean winds 40-48mph recorded

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