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Hurricane Helene

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5 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Given my flight path, I'm coming in from the north down across Scotland to get to Heathrow, then all the way back up to Edinburgh so if the worst comes to the worst, I get to fly through it twice, with two landings and one takeoff. Oh joy...

I wouldn't worry ,go arounds are exciting  😁

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Too be honest the models are all over the place with this so no point worrying at the moment. I would take a look at the Models Sunday to find out whether you'll need a sick bucket or not. :)

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13 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Too be honest the models are all over the place with this so no point worrying at the moment. I would take a look at the Models Sunday to find out whether you'll need a sick bucket or not. :)

I had a flight back from Belfast booked on the day of Ophelia last year. Was so relieved when the flight got cancelled. Travelled back the next day nice and smoothly.

The way I see it is when you're paying someone to move you from A to B, why should you travel in discomfort?

Edited by CreweCold

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7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I had a flight back from Belfast booked on the day of Ophelia last year. Was so relieved when the flight got cancelled. Travelled back the next day nice and smoothly.

The way I see it is when you're paying someone to move you from A to B, why should you travel in discomfort?

I'd rather have experienced severe weather with ridiculous turbulence!!

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I'd rather have experienced severe weather with ridiculous turbulence!!

Problem is severe turbulence  has little effect  on an airframe just bad on  a humans  frame  ,lol I've expererinced moderate to heavy turbulence it's interesting watching stuff fly around cabin 🤣

Edited by Mokidugway
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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I'd rather have experienced severe weather with ridiculous turbulence!!

I get bad travel sickness...mixed with anxiety, not a great recipe!

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I get bad travel sickness...mixed with anxiety, not a great recipe!

You need to drink lots in those situations 😂

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Quote

 

MET ÉIREANN BRIEFING REGARDING TROPICAL STORM HELENE AS OF NOON, FRIDAY 14TH SEPTEMBER

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Tropical Storm Helene

Tropical Storm Helene is the system which is pertinent to us here in Ireland because current guidance indicates that Helene will take a northeastward track towards our shores early next week. Tropical Storm Helene is already transitioning to an extra-tropical cyclone southwest of the Azores Islands. This means that Helene will lose it’s tropical characteristics including it’s warm core, organised deep convection and closed surface wind circulation and become more akin to the low pressure systems we are used to seeing in our part of the world. It will develop fronts, the strongest winds will shift around to the east and south of the low pressure system with the heaviest rain on the western side of the low pressure centre.

The current forecast is that “Storm Helene” or “ex-Tropical Storm Helene” will be to the south of Ireland on Monday night. Current guidance has the low pressure system moving northeastwards up through the Irish Sea overnight Monday and early on Tuesday, although the exact path is still uncertain. A humid spell of wet and windy weather is expected to sweep up over Ireland on Monday night and early Tuesday as a result. Current guidance suggests the potential for warning level winds and perhaps rain with the system. There remains some uncertainty in the track of the system. Met Éireann forecasters will continue to monitor the situation and issue warnings, as required, closer to the time.

 

Quote

Not looking like there is much to be concerned about at the moment. That could of course still change, still time.

Edited by The Eagle

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ukmo fax charts are a load of nonsense this morning Helena disappears in the 12 hrs after retreating backwards. It looks like the track will be either up through Ireland or just of the coast of Ireland. For most of the uk nothing to worry about Irland and areas bordering the Irish see and later northern England and southern Scotland should see some high winds which will pass through fairly quickly. Irland and Scotland will see plenty of rain but dry and humid elsewhere.

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ARPEGE and GFS both suggest wind gusts of 60mph to 75mph affecting coastal areas around the Irish Sea:

image.thumb.png.ae003b182f1e8e2517a5bdffe448f968.png.   image.thumb.gif.76b8b5875144bf3b2251dd3eb5c4c467.gif

These are at sea level or 10m height. At my elevation and exposed as we are, I imagine gusts could exceed 75mph.   Anglesey could be the worst affected area in Wales but Ireland is even more at risk because the storm could track further west than predicted.  I intend to tether a couple of small trees I have, because I have lost young trees in similar conditions before.  

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Latest report

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

The cloud pattern of Helene is starting to show signs of decay, with
the central convection decreasing since the previous advisory and
the low-level center becoming partly exposed in a region between
convective bands.  The initial intensity is held at 60 kt for this
advisory in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus, but
it is possible this is generous.  The 34-kt wind radii in the
southeastern quadrant were revised based on a partial ASCAT pass.

Helene is moving toward colder water and into an area of strong
shear associated with the mid-latitude westerlies.  This should
cause the system to weaken and, as it merges with a frontal system,
become an extratropical cyclone in about 36 h.  The global models
forecast Helene to be absorbed into a large non-tropical low over
the far north Atlantic after it passes Ireland and the United
Kingdom, and thus the system is forecast to dissipate completely
between 72-96 h.

Helene has turned northeastward with the initial motion now 035/18.
A faster motion toward the northeast should occur during the
remainder of the cyclone's life as it becomes more embedded in the
westerlies.  On the forecast track, Helene should pass near or over
the western Azores later today or tonight, and head toward Ireland
and the United Kingdom late this weekend and early next week.
There are no significant changes to either the track guidance or the
official forecast track since the last advisory.

Tropical storm conditions should spread over portions of the Azores
during the next several hours and continue through tonight.

Helene is also expected to be a storm-force post-tropical cyclone
when it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom in two to three
days.  Interests in those locations should consult products from
their local meteorological service for information about potential
impacts from Helene.  Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be
found on the website of the UK Met Office at
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.  Local forecasts and warnings for
Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at
https://www.met.ie/.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 38.8N  34.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 40.8N  31.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 43.0N  27.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 45.5N  21.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  17/1200Z 49.0N  15.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  18/1200Z 59.0N   1.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

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Looking generally weaker overall and slightly further eastward the rainfall Northern Ireland and later Scotland maybe the most notable feature of this former hurricane and the overnight warmth for the rest of the UK. GFS maybe under doing the day time temperatures.

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Just now, bluearmy said:

discussion on Helene should surely go into the MOD now? 

possibly, however, there is always a separate discussion wrt UK cold spells which inevitably ends up with some model related discussion included, I think the mods are more bothered about non-model related discussion in the MOD thread than model discussion in more general threads TBH.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

possibly, however, there is always a separate discussion wrt UK cold spells which inevitably ends up with some model related discussion included, I think the mods are more bothered about non-model related discussion in the MOD thread than model discussion in more general threads TBH.

Actually noticed that she has her own thread in the Atlantic storm section so I expect this thread to become dormant. 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Actually noticed that she has her own thread in the Atlantic storm section so I expect this thread to become dormant. 

HA - sorry!, I actually mistakenly thought that that was the thread I was replying to!

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