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Tropical Storm Gordon

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As expected and forecast very well by the EC and very badly by gfs. We have tropical storm Gordon. 

Surface observations from the Florida Keys and southeast Florida,
along with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate
that the disturbance has developed a closed surface circulation and
a well-defined center. Recent observations from a Weatherflow site
at Carys Fort Reef and radar data support increasing the maximum
winds to at least 40 kt. As a result of these data, the system has
been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon, the seventh named system of
the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is enroute to investigate Gordon.

The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt and the previous forecast
track remains unchanged. The intensity forecast was adjusted upward
in the first 24 to 36 hours to account for the initial increase in
intensity. Some additional adjustments may be required after the
reconnaissance aircraft completes its mission and provides more
detailed information on the stricture and intensity of Gordon.

 

4B2158C3-3F6A-4D36-A293-B029ECB294F9.jpeg

49A0CF20-241E-4E49-B89A-4A523668A469.png

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Recon is on route and Gordon has spun up quickly. I think this could well make hurricane prior landfall. 

Also interesting that the nhc say at least 40kts. 

Gom is very primed for development. 

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1 hour ago, Iceberg said:

Recon is on route and Gordon has spun up quickly. I think this could well make hurricane prior landfall. 

Also interesting that the nhc say at least 40kts. 

Gom is very primed for development. 

I follow the National Hurricane Center on FB, their latest post a couple of mins ago says Gordon "...could be near hurricane strength when it makes landfall along the central Gulf Coast". So I agree one to watch.

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Gordon has some fantastic banding. The centre is embedded in a of convection just leaving Florida. Obviously overland they can’t get  vortex reading, but winds of 40kt max from recon fully supporting nhc intensity. 

With precious and banding fantastic in the ne quad but missing in the sw, leaving the coast should allow him to get more symmetrical. This will need massive concentrate from the nhc as 3hrly changes could be substantial. 

B272E843-6F71-41A5-ACC0-A16068A5BECA.png

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Vortex just in centre moving off the coast. And sustained 40kts. 

Unconfirmed reports of 60mph sustained. And some effects on electricity etc. 

This might spin up rapidly in the next 6 hrs. 

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Rain contaminated, but recon have just found sustained of 55kts and squally winds of 70+kts. Ie equals in the ne quad overland with almost 100mph wind. No wonder there are reports of power failures etc. 

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Close up of developing eye wall on radar. As expected the precip is wrapping round now into the sw quad as it moves out to sea  

 

 

FFF86261-2F6C-47D6-B1D1-501C7BD7D1C4.png

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Can a Storm be a Hurricane without an eye?

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9 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Can a Storm be a Hurricane without an eye?

Yes. It’s unusual though and must have a warm core centre. 

Gordon though is rapidly developing an eye. 

Recon have a bit of outline flying in the ne quad but have just started another pas towards the centre. 

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That eye is clearing at an amazing speed. Eyewall strengthening. 

I wouldn’t like to guess what this will be when it hits land. But it WILL be a hurricane imo. Possible a potent one. 

D0A6BAFD-E20B-44B2-921B-500CF54FD340.png

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Certainly escalated very quickly. Think this is going to pack more of a punch than expected.

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Just been talking to Michael Phelps on Facebook (not the swimmer lol) and he reckons it could make cat 2 before landfall 

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now upped to 65mph sustained winds, Gordon is out at sea prior to US landfall.

Pressure is still 1003mb, partially due to the high pressure around it and also as its struggled to gets a strong persistent eye wall to allow pressure to lower.

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