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Iceberg

Hurricane Florence

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Someone needs to have a word with the local forecasters...

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Looking at the sat IR imagery it looks like she has gone through a very quick eye wall replacement cycle and therefore has probably increased in strength. Could well see its now around Cat 5 speeds already, combined with its size this is going to be devastating if it doesn't weaken.

Edited by cowdog

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Ec initialised at 951 mb and dropped to 948 mb by 6am 

its back to ‘Noah’s ark’ levels of deluge status though ............

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I’ve been holding off posting for the  last two hrs trying to make sense if the models and Florence. 

This is just my opinion so take it with a pinch of salt. 

Gfs is another silly run, it has it touching the outer banks, going back out to see and then coming back sw and making landfall again at the Carolinas border. 

Ec is bang on the last few runs. Hitting just south of willmington. Since it initiated well I would strongly favour this solution. 

Imho there isn’t a model that exists that will predict intensification from now to landfall. It will all be down tk internals and Florence herself. 

There was certainly an attempt at an ewrc. This was forced on the hurricane by a lack of outflow. Which allowed the eyewall to become week and dry air to enter the system. 

This conversely set off better outflow and provided a turbo boost to the convection band. The attempt at an erc was swept away and the eye wall become greatly strengthened. 

The remains of the attempted  erc have been pushed out. But enough of an erc has taken place to provide a likely expanded eye   

Sometimes, this can be sufficient to allow a period of intensification as the core has more vigour to contract. Sometimes, it just leads to a period of stagnation. 

Regardless, Florence is starting  to become a big hurricane in size. All of these internal changes are probably just expanding the sustained 70-100mph winds by quite a margin. 

The next few hours will see her looking scary again imho. 

E316A72C-FC12-4536-8F72-00057F22B8BB.jpeg

CA441257-AA93-40C5-BCC0-E128D9CDAF30.png

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54 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

I’ve been holding off posting for the  last two hrs trying to make sense if the models and Florence. 

This is just my opinion so take it with a pinch of salt. 

Gfs is another silly run, it has it touching the outer banks, going back out to see and then coming back sw and making landfall again at the Carolinas border. 

Ec is bang on the last few runs. Hitting just south of willmington. Since it initiated well I would strongly favour this solution. 

Imho there isn’t a model that exists that will predict intensification from now to landfall. It will all be down tk internals and Florence herself. 

There was certainly an attempt at an ewrc. This was forced on the hurricane by a lack of outflow. Which allowed the eyewall to become week and dry air to enter the system. 

This conversely set off better outflow and provided a turbo boost to the convection band. The attempt at an erc was swept away and the eye wall become greatly strengthened. 

The remains of the attempted  erc have been pushed out. But enough of an erc has taken place to provide a likely expanded eye   

Sometimes, this can be sufficient to allow a period of intensification as the core has more vigour to contract. Sometimes, it just leads to a period of stagnation. 

Regardless, Florence is starting  to become a big hurricane in size. All of these internal changes are probably just expanding the sustained 70-100mph winds by quite a margin. 

The next few hours will see her looking scary again imho. 

E316A72C-FC12-4536-8F72-00057F22B8BB.jpeg

CA441257-AA93-40C5-BCC0-E128D9CDAF30.png

Agree mate the EC seems to have this nailed on. However it’s the stalling after it lands could be the final talking point. Rainfall levels like Harvey last year?? 

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Inner Eye wall has weakened again and the last remnants of the attempted erc look like they might get absorbed into the Eye making it a bit bigger. 

FD4BC527-D373-445B-AF96-E3FDF7C0EC53.png

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.Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 Recent satellite imagery shows that the eye of Florence has become cloud filled and an earlier 0441 UTC microwave overpass revealed a double eyewall structure. These observations suggest that an eyewall replacement cycle is likely underway. Subjective and objective Dvorak current intensity numbers have not changed so the initial intensity will remain 120 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is en route to the storm and should provide a better assessment of Florence's structure and intensity this morning. NOAA buoy 41049 located about 80 nmi north of the eye, has reported tropical-storm-force winds during the last several hours and seas as high as 23 ft. Florence's upper-level environment is predicted to remain quite favorable while the storm traverses sea surface temperatures of around 29C over the next 48 hours. Additional strengthening is forecast during this time, but some fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles. The updated NHC intensity forecast once again calls for additional intensification and brings Florence to near category 5 strength within the next 24 to 36 hours. After 48 hours, a slight increase in southwesterly shear could result in some weakening, but Florence is expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it approaches the U.S. coastline. Florence has accelerated as anticipated and is now moving west-northwestward or 290 degrees at 13 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed much. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of Bermuda is expected steer Florence quickly west-northwestward to northwestward toward the southeast United States coast over the next 2 to 3 days. By 72 hours, a high pressure ridge building over the Upper-Midwest and Great Lakes regions is forecast to cause a significant reduction in Florence's forward speed and the hurricane is predicted to meander over the eastern portions of North or South Carolina at days 4 and 5. The ECMWF has trended slower this cycle at days 4 and 5, and as a result the NHC forecast shows slightly less motion at those time periods. The spread in the guidance increases by 72 hours, with the GFS and its ensemble mean along the right side of the guidance, while the ECMWF remains along the left edge. It should be noted that there are still a number of ECMWF members that are even farther left. The NHC track forecast has been nudged to the left and is close to the TVCN consensus aid. Given the amount of uncertainty by day 3, it is important not to focus on the exact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 100, 140 and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well away from the center. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches have been issued for a portion of the coast of South and North Carolina. Additional watches may be required later today. 

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image.thumb.png.675cfeb22981b2d2718bbe3b8430d3e2.png Not sure if that takes tides into account.

All that water and nowhere to go.

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38 minutes ago, AlMorr said:

 The remnants of Florence will never hit the UK, Perhaps Issac might get near, difficult to predict. 

Issac is heading west towards the southern Caribbean, it's Hurricane Helene which is forecast to swing NW then N towards the Azores this weekend

083550_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.thumb.png.c4ed1d44fbe3e3c094a9126df4e367d1.png

then, if EC is to be believed, moving N/NE west of Ireland early next week, while 00z GFS took the much weakened ex-TS NE into SW UK while the 6z GFS takes it towards Iberia … big uncertainty!

Edited by Nick F
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5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Issac is heading west towards the southern Caribbean, it's Hurricane Helene which is forecast to swing NW then N towards the Azores this weekend

083550_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.thumb.png.c4ed1d44fbe3e3c094a9126df4e367d1.png

then, if EC is to be believed, moving N/NE west of Ireland early next week, while 00z GFS took the much weakened ex-TS NE into SW UK while the 6z GFS takes it towards Iberia … big uncertainty!

Is the ec isimilair to the track of ophelia last year?.  mind you i cant imagine being that strong.

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Recon are doing a run, first for nearly 12 hrs though the eye. 

Max winds around 100kts so back to a cat 3 from that. Higher winds will probably be found in the ne quad though that support a cat 4. 

Pressure rise to 952mb. No surprised given the large 40-50m eye that’s teying to form. If that does form then a pressure fall to 920-925mb could well be on the cards,  

Florence is very much trying to put the building blocks in place for a run at cat 5. Big question is will it work or will she continue to struggle. 

Crunch 12 hrs coming up. 

451C6EB0-4CE2-4E52-8645-1D5BA7D98D94.png

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Ne quad sampled in the last 5 mins. 112kts max. Just enough barely to support a 115kts cat 4. 

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I think regardless of CAT number, theres going to be flooding which will be just as bad to infrastructure.

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Rainfall and surges are the biggest issues, but the wind could cause the longest timeframe damage. 

Often under a cat 1-3 hurricane winds are actually pretty isolated to a small 5-20m range. For Florence this could well be 100-120m. With the most destructive winds capable of destroying buildings over 60 miles. The pressure is a driving force behind storm surge as well. 

 

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Video from the eye, pretty boring really...

 

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Probably the most freightening thing I’ve seen today from Florence. 

Flight winds of 143kts with high winds either side indicating a very strong ne quad eye wall. With surface winds yet to respond  

Given the disorganisation still in the eye this will only go up considerably. :(

F851E3B9-8CFF-4C51-92A4-6708E697A047.png

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ALso these from the set prior. 

Thats 17 recording in a row of flight winds over 100kt in a single sector. 

984FF5B9-FE12-4E90-87D2-4BAB8AB0A776.png

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