Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, Mokidugway said:

    Think it's fair to say some winterstorms  that have hit  northern Scotland  in the past have been  equal  to cat 3 hurricanes, far more powerful  than 87 though thankfully in areas of low population 

    True, although the tidal surges and waves don't seem to be as spectacular, in fact the tidal surges seem to be better on the North sea when strong winds coincide with high tide.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 519
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Nice feed here    

    Had to share this:  

    This a beautiful satellite picture from NOAA showing the three tropical disturbances...

    Posted Images

    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    True, although the tidal surges and waves don't seem to be as spectacular, in fact the tidal surges seem to be better on the North sea when strong winds coincide with high tide.

    I agree the north seas topagraphical  and geography  make it an almost perfect funnel  for disasterous  flooding  to the SE and the low countries of Europe 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

    I agree the north seas topagraphical  and geography  make it an almost perfect funnel  for disasterous  flooding  to the SE and the low countries of Europe 

    Yes - does seem that way, anyway back to the hurricane - does any local meteorological organization actually claim to have any confidence yet in definitive prediction of strength and track of this hurricane yet or is it all guesswork at the moment. I say that because I wouldn't be trusting global models with such a volatile storm without some forecaster interpretation.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

    image.thumb.png.69e1eb01ccdcef908260e0bfe524e25b.png

    That is a BEAST!! :help:

    I think the Carolinas are gonna wiped out at this rate!! No joke!!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Not a lot of interesting weather for the UK atm. but wow this one has taken off pretty quickly.

    The ECM ensembles are always interesting in hurricane situations, and all 50 members have landfall somewhere between Jacksonville and Virginia Beach gusting at between 115 and 145 mph.

    But the really scary bit is the ECM thinks the storm is currently gusting about 90mph. That might be 40 mph out already. So could the landfall gust prediction also be 40 mph out?

    If the ECM 00Z can catch up on developments, I think tomorrow morning's ensembles might be rather crazy.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

    http://surfchex.com/cams/carolina-beach-web-cam/

    This give good views and includes the radar for the area

    .

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

    ECM 12z initialised way above what the actual start pressure was ~ cant see but probs 980/990- when infact it was 950-960

    So the landfall numbers will be way out.( or as a minimum the approach to landfall

     

     

    1 hour ago, Iceberg said:

    High res ec init at 965mb I think. Still way above though, it lead to lower pressure at landfall. Correct init with adj landfall would give around 935mb imho. 

    With 1-2ft of rain 8-10m storm surge, sustained winds of 150mph and gusts to 170mph. Wilmington doesn’t really stand a chance, if it stays as is. 

     

    I posted earlier - was 971 mb 

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

    Michael VentriceVerified account @MJVentrice

    The weather model news just keeps getting worse for the Carolinas. Based off recent intensity adjustments, we are now seeing the potential for Major Hurricane #Florence to achieve a Category 5 intensity prior to landfalling across the Carolinas. If correct, devastating news.

    image.thumb.png.e355b0dce4d4139e06044b0174f49863.png

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Latest update goes with 939mb at 120kts. Maybe a touch conservative with max winds during the timeframe of 135kts so just below cat 5. 

    At present hurricane winds extent 70miles in diameter. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Discussion 

    Unfortunately, the models were right. Florence has rapidly
    intensified into an extremely dangerous hurricane, with 30-second
    GOES-16 visible imagery showing well-defined eyewall mesovortices
    rotating inside of the eye. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found
    peak SFMR winds of about 120 kt, with flight-level winds and
    dropsonde measurements also supporting that value for the initial
    wind speed estimate. Notably, the aircraft data also show the size
    of the hurricane-force winds has doubled in the past 12 hours.
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

    Mike BureshVerified account @MikeFirstAlert

    Here is the 5 pm advisory for Hurricane #Florence. Winds up to 140 mph. Moving WNW at 13 mph. #FirstAlertWX

    Only 16 mph more then its a Cat 5

     

    Edited by pip22
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

    I'm bookmarking this one, see how long it lasts...

    http://surfchex.com/cams/downtown-wilmington-web-cam/

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Category 4 taken from nhc. 

    Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
    Just now, Iceberg said:

    Category 4 taken from nhc. 

    Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

    Irma read that and said I can go one better. Wonder if Florence can also read. She may well go for the Cat 5 text.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
    1 minute ago, Had Worse said:

    Irma read that and said I can go one better. Wonder if Florence can also read. She may well go for the Cat 5 text.

    Cat 5 strips the land bare under the eyewall.

    Admittedly, there's some variation in building standards, which means that the idea of how much damage is caused by the various categories can vary from place to place, building to building.... but yeah... Cat 5 scours the surface of the earth over an area at least as wide as the eye... or at least that's the idea (and if you look at before and after images of Barbuda, the colour change says it all)

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    It’s very rare to get a major hurricane hitting the us mainland, let alone a cat 4, and certainly a cat4-5 boarderline. 

    Looks like they evacuate the entire north and South Carolina coastlines and willmington over 1m people in total. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    According to CNN:

    South Carolina's entire 187-mile coastline is under mandatory evacuation beginning at 12:00 p.m. Tuesday

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    4 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

    So from a TS to a CAT 5 in 36-48 hours

    & in this day & age no model can resolve this RI - yet it was fairly easy to see that the conditions were near on perfect..

    Based on climate change & perfect conditions available they will need to revisit the scale soon to add CAT 6

    I often wondered why the category 6 status hasn't been introduced and did a bit of searching.

    I found that the reason was a category 5 is capable of destroying anything in its path and given the saffir simpson scale is very much influenced by structural damage, a category 6 is therefore deemed not necessary.

    Maybe that will change soon, it is unsure as to whether we will see more hurricanes in a warming climate but they are likely to turn increasingly intense as the oceans warm further.

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...