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Iceberg

Hurricane Florence

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Just now, Mokidugway said:

Think it's fair to say some winterstorms  that have hit  northern Scotland  in the past have been  equal  to cat 3 hurricanes, far more powerful  than 87 though thankfully in areas of low population 

True, although the tidal surges and waves don't seem to be as spectacular, in fact the tidal surges seem to be better on the North sea when strong winds coincide with high tide.

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Recon have a recording of 125kts in the nw quad. 

Nhc update might go with that. 

So either 120 or 125kts. 

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

True, although the tidal surges and waves don't seem to be as spectacular, in fact the tidal surges seem to be better on the North sea when strong winds coincide with high tide.

I agree the north seas topagraphical  and geography  make it an almost perfect funnel  for disasterous  flooding  to the SE and the low countries of Europe 

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1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

I agree the north seas topagraphical  and geography  make it an almost perfect funnel  for disasterous  flooding  to the SE and the low countries of Europe 

Yes - does seem that way, anyway back to the hurricane - does any local meteorological organization actually claim to have any confidence yet in definitive prediction of strength and track of this hurricane yet or is it all guesswork at the moment. I say that because I wouldn't be trusting global models with such a volatile storm without some forecaster interpretation.

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image.thumb.png.69e1eb01ccdcef908260e0bfe524e25b.png

That is a BEAST!! :help:

I think the Carolinas are gonna wiped out at this rate!! No joke!!

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Not a lot of interesting weather for the UK atm. but wow this one has taken off pretty quickly.

The ECM ensembles are always interesting in hurricane situations, and all 50 members have landfall somewhere between Jacksonville and Virginia Beach gusting at between 115 and 145 mph.

But the really scary bit is the ECM thinks the storm is currently gusting about 90mph. That might be 40 mph out already. So could the landfall gust prediction also be 40 mph out?

If the ECM 00Z can catch up on developments, I think tomorrow morning's ensembles might be rather crazy.

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Quite a thick eye wall and spread of 100+kt flight winds. This is expanding considerably. All the below in the ne quad after centre pass through. 

4088F59F-E06D-4819-944B-931AA99613D9.png

5DE906C2-572D-4F7F-A193-E99CEE0D1517.png

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 12z initialised way above what the actual start pressure was ~ cant see but probs 980/990- when infact it was 950-960

So the landfall numbers will be way out.( or as a minimum the approach to landfall

 

 

1 hour ago, Iceberg said:

High res ec init at 965mb I think. Still way above though, it lead to lower pressure at landfall. Correct init with adj landfall would give around 935mb imho. 

With 1-2ft of rain 8-10m storm surge, sustained winds of 150mph and gusts to 170mph. Wilmington doesn’t really stand a chance, if it stays as is. 

 

I posted earlier - was 971 mb 

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Michael VentriceVerified account @MJVentrice

The weather model news just keeps getting worse for the Carolinas. Based off recent intensity adjustments, we are now seeing the potential for Major Hurricane #Florence to achieve a Category 5 intensity prior to landfalling across the Carolinas. If correct, devastating news.

image.thumb.png.e355b0dce4d4139e06044b0174f49863.png

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Latest update goes with 939mb at 120kts. Maybe a touch conservative with max winds during the timeframe of 135kts so just below cat 5. 

At present hurricane winds extent 70miles in diameter. 

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Discussion 

Unfortunately, the models were right. Florence has rapidly
intensified into an extremely dangerous hurricane, with 30-second
GOES-16 visible imagery showing well-defined eyewall mesovortices
rotating inside of the eye. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found
peak SFMR winds of about 120 kt, with flight-level winds and
dropsonde measurements also supporting that value for the initial
wind speed estimate. Notably, the aircraft data also show the size
of the hurricane-force winds has doubled in the past 12 hours.

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I'm bookmarking this one, see how long it lasts...

http://surfchex.com/cams/downtown-wilmington-web-cam/

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Category 4 taken from nhc. 

Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

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Just now, Iceberg said:

Category 4 taken from nhc. 

Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Irma read that and said I can go one better. Wonder if Florence can also read. She may well go for the Cat 5 text.

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1 minute ago, Had Worse said:

Irma read that and said I can go one better. Wonder if Florence can also read. She may well go for the Cat 5 text.

Cat 5 strips the land bare under the eyewall.

Admittedly, there's some variation in building standards, which means that the idea of how much damage is caused by the various categories can vary from place to place, building to building.... but yeah... Cat 5 scours the surface of the earth over an area at least as wide as the eye... or at least that's the idea (and if you look at before and after images of Barbuda, the colour change says it all)

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It’s very rare to get a major hurricane hitting the us mainland, let alone a cat 4, and certainly a cat4-5 boarderline. 

Looks like they evacuate the entire north and South Carolina coastlines and willmington over 1m people in total. 

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I didn’t want to put the cat 5 one up  until/unless it reaches cat 5 as it always scares the hell out of me !

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Can someone please post the link for watching the flights doing data collection? I'm rushing about packing for a trip to San Francisco and just can't find it.

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According to CNN:

South Carolina's entire 187-mile coastline is under mandatory evacuation beginning at 12:00 p.m. Tuesday

 

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4 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

So from a TS to a CAT 5 in 36-48 hours

& in this day & age no model can resolve this RI - yet it was fairly easy to see that the conditions were near on perfect..

Based on climate change & perfect conditions available they will need to revisit the scale soon to add CAT 6

I often wondered why the category 6 status hasn't been introduced and did a bit of searching.

I found that the reason was a category 5 is capable of destroying anything in its path and given the saffir simpson scale is very much influenced by structural damage, a category 6 is therefore deemed not necessary.

Maybe that will change soon, it is unsure as to whether we will see more hurricanes in a warming climate but they are likely to turn increasingly intense as the oceans warm further.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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