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Gfs 06 finally wakes up to reality. 

Very little info atm. Microwave is a good while ago, latest below but 6 hrs old. 

Cdo convection continues to increase. 

Recon isn’t until later today, but will probably find hurricane winds imho. 


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Nice feed here    

Had to share this:  

This a beautiful satellite picture from NOAA showing the three tropical disturbances...

Posted Images

Florence is officially back to being a hurricane. A clear eye has formed and with this raw Dvorak has increased to a cat 2. 

Rapid intensification flags have been set and convective banding around the eye is taking place. 


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Nhc update just been released. 

Satellite images indicate that Florence is strengthening.  Deep
convection has intensified in the central dense overcast, with
hints of a ragged eye in the latest GOES-16 visible channel.  The
NOAA Hurricane Hunters just flew through the eye, finding 70 kt
winds at flight-level and 66 kt from the SFMR.  This data confirms
that Florence has become a hurricane again, and the initial wind
speed is set to 65 kt.  The aircraft also found that the minimum
pressure has decreased to 984 mb.

Overnight microwave data and the Hurricane Hunter vortex message
show that a mostly complete eyewall has formed with Florence.  In
combination with low vertical wind shear and progressively warmer
waters near 29C, this structure is a blueprint for rapid
intensification. Almost all of the intensity guidance is showing at
least one period of rapid strengthening during the next few days,
which is rather rare.  The NHC wind speed forecast is raised in the
first couple of days following the guidance trend, then is very
similar to the previous one.  All indications are that Florence will
be an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane while it moves over
the western Atlantic toward the southeastern United States.


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Should have a grandstand view of Florence tomorrow from 40,000ft as I'm flying to the Dominican Republic.  Today's flights have skirted round her to the west.  Should imagine they will go round to the east of her tomorrow.

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ec 12z is wetter than ec 00z with a swathe across central n Carolina nw of Wilmington seeing between 15 and 30 inches of precip over a couple of days ......... suspect inland flooding could be the story by the time Florence has blown herself out 

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New update from nhc. 

975mb pressure and 75kts. 

They also forecast her to reach 130kts prior to landfall


The last reconnaissance fix indicated that the pressure had fallen
to about 978 mb with Florence, a drop of about 6 mb in 4 hours, with
uncontaminated SFMR winds of about 70 kt. Since then, the satellite
presentation has continued to improve, with intensifying deep
convection near the center.  Thus the wind speed is set to 75 kt on
this advisory.
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3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Nhc now forecast 150mph and state that their own consensus aids go higher.

Indeed, getting close to a Cat 5 on Wednesday.  NHC most recent update is:

INIT  09/2100Z 24.4N  57.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 24.6N  58.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 25.1N  60.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 25.9N  63.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 27.0N  66.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 30.3N  72.6W  130 KT 150 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 33.5N  77.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 35.0N  79.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND

This is going to be newsworthy going into next weekend

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