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7 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Looks like the 12z GFS is going the same way.  Doesn't quite make landfall, just sits off the coast of North Carolina for 24 hours plus, no doubt bringing massive rain totals?  This is for next Friday afternoon

gfsna-0-150.png?12

Yes, no steer to push the hurricane inland.

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Nice feed here    

Had to share this:  

This a beautiful satellite picture from NOAA showing the three tropical disturbances...

Posted Images

The UKMO is the only 12z model so far that offers a US landfall. However, it has shifted the part a bit north than the earlier runs.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021

Edit: The GEM actually also agrees with the UKMO 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=0&carte=3

 

Edited by karyo
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Just looking at some gfs ens figures. None of the gfs ens that forecast Florence to stay a fish had her at her current south position. This includes the gfs ops. 

Its more  evidence that gfs continues to underplay the strength of the high. 

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28 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Also Florence has the highest strength ever forecast in the 5 day window by the NHC

5E26D688-F37A-4FC0-8A40-C2CAD1CDF488.thumb.jpeg.9df4493ad0a7971e81f870fce4ca4253.jpeg

That’s forecast from a tropical storm start only. Some like Irma where forecast as cat 5s all the way through some forecast 5 day charts. 

Given that Florence has already been a cat 4 it’s not that surprising. 

I wonder how many storms have gone down from cat 4 to a ts and then back to cat 4 again. ?

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Not sure I dont really dont look at the old stats-

I wonder due to the +SSTAs we could get a run @ CAT 5-

Actually its 6-

Edited by Steve Murr
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Florence is still struggling. I was trying to understand why, the chart below shows the upwelling of cold water under Florence and the fact that it’s drained most of the energy frok the ocean it’s currently under.  

Florence will need to gain a bit of speed to get its cdo organised. This is due to start happening later today. 

Plenty of energy in it path, particularly where it’s forecast to stall unfortunately. 

7798B4FD-42AC-44BB-BD76-F0DC094476B0.gif

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Florence has Been giving a decent impression of a cat 1 hurricane in the last hr. convection is far better and cdo complete. 

Ec and meto ens below. To be fair ec and 90% of its ens goes for a solid hit. The vast majority of mogreps goes for a hit as well. Gfs is slowly moving in this direction now, but I can’t see this missing the Carolinas. 

21812311-1176-407B-BB57-BED2AB929AAB.gif

C29CEB49-83DA-408C-9F5D-2C4ECE2CB31E.gif

2AB9C64E-9AB4-496C-B491-77ABCDE6EDBF.png

424CBB69-6932-4C92-85F0-73178EA2D66B.gif

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Todays the day for for RI

As mentioned yesterday the prospect / chance of a CAT 5 is still on the table with significant +VE SSTs in the landfall region-

NHC keep upping the projected windspeeds for landfall- now strong CAT 4..

 

Edited by Steve Murr
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