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Hurricane Florence


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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

A wide range of landfalls from the meto and ec ens. Anywhere from Florida to NC. A small percentage have a recurve but the trend is still south. 

Its starting to become difficult to see the us missing this one. 

90A3A629-AEAF-4A18-B678-6D3DDA9080D8.gif

AA65F3AC-C47D-43CD-AF86-DB780079D8E2.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Ec again goes for an almost identical hit. At the moment we at looking at the Charleston area. 

She is forecast to be a cat 4 major hurricane so the winds will be very damaging. However possibly more concerning is the slow nature of the storms movement. Hence many area could see 48-72hrs of rainfall. 

Flooding is looking certain and must be the major focus. 

6F4AD228-F676-4FE1-B86D-954B09E1D03E.png

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Florence has really turned the corner this morning. 

The centre, red dot, now has convection to the west and t numbers are increasing. 

Nhc update. 

Although Florence remains a sheared tropical cyclone, satellite
imagery during the past 6 h also indicates that the shear has
started to abate somewhat, which has allowed the dense cirrus
canopy to build back over the previously exposed low-level
circulation center. Furthermore, deep convection with overshooting
cloud tops near -80C and an abundance of lightning activity have
developed very close to the center. Based on these data along with
Dvorak intensity estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, the
initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt.

 

to add to this they have increased her day 5 to 125kts, a strong cat 4 and only 15kts from a cat 5. 

Path is still Zeroing in on NC/SC. 

She will likely become a freightening storm again over the weekend. 

93984F7D-7EAC-489F-88B6-7952D208BB7B.png

F7BC5B34-8B25-4327-B18D-8681F353F12D.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Latest ukmo says non event though rainfall would likely be notable though not extreme 

The UKMO also has the more southerly path. I can't see it be right about the intensity.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Latest ukmo says non event though rainfall would likely be notable though not extreme 

Meto global has this according to my data  

AL, 06, 2018090800, 22, EP00, 168, 315N,  855W,  31,  990, XX,  34, NEQ,

for t168. Ie  990mb probably cat 1 storm. 

But meto always goes for a lower cane at that distance due to lower res issues. Realistically it’s probably forecasting a cat 2-3 at higher res and that isn’t at landfall. 

Meto and mogreps agree well with ec on path. 

54F6F94E-81BD-4D14-AE2F-41FE394A3F62.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

The 6z ICON has shifted Florence further north and it seems to be missing the chance for a landfall. This is due to a weaker high to the north.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=0&map=2&archive=0

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
2 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

 



 

 

Meto and mogreps agree well with ec on path. 

54F6F94E-81BD-4D14-AE2F-41FE394A3F62.gif

Looking at this it looks like the only chance for Florence to miss the states is if it takes the more northerly route in the next day or so. If she deepens fast she may do that. The 6z ICON does that and to some extend the Aprege 0z.

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Historically, and supported by the statistical based models, hurricanes that deepen rapidly tend to bias to the right side of the track envelope which would account for some of the uncertainty.

Given the blend of solutions with regards the upper ridge in 5 days forecast to develop near Bermuda, I’d say there’s a better than average chance of a high end hurricane impacting the coast between FL and NC next Weds/Thurs and I’m looking at options to intercept, but will leave it until Monday.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The ec spreads on Florence are more inclined to the northerly scrape this morning  - the previous run was much stronger landfall options. 

Where od you place your confidence ?  A repeating op or the eps ? 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 hour ago, Iceberg said:

Meto global has this according to my data  


AL, 06, 2018090800, 22, EP00, 168, 315N,  855W,  31,  990, XX,  34, NEQ,

for t168. Ie  990mb probably cat 1 storm. 

But meto always goes for a lower cane at that distance due to lower res issues. Realistically it’s probably forecasting a cat 2-3 at higher res and that isn’t at landfall. 

Meto and mogreps agree well with ec on path. 

54F6F94E-81BD-4D14-AE2F-41FE394A3F62.gif

Is mogreps resolution too clever at six days? ukmo did well with some of last seasons storms when it disagreed with the ec/gfs - my comment on ‘non event’ related to its lack of strengthening compared to the rest of the models. I don’t believe the ukgm resolution is going to be responsible for this difference. 

the next ec run will be of great interest to NHC, given the gfs 06z. I wonder what the GFSP will show? 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Tbh I certainly wouldn’t rule anything out. Around 10-20% of ec eps did keep her out to see just. More though took Florence further sw though. Also as nhc say the trend has consistently been south and west, with gfs consistently underplaying the blocking high. 

More globals and hurricanes. I would always treat any global intensification as a conservative. Particularly meto and mogreps. Both ec and gfs have seperate meto intensification models for hurricanes based upon global data simply as they don’t have the res to model this very well and always under do it. 

Given the above I would like to see  a movement  north/east from ec before giving  it too much of a chance. 

Back to now and Florence is under going rapid intensification imho. Raw t numbers indicate she has moved quickly back to a cat 2. An eye in a cdo is also evident along with a much more if not conplete vertically stacked core. 

Old picture from a few hrs ago and new one. New one much tighter  

A very strong cat 4 is on the cards. 

912F3CE9-6241-4AB9-9C95-E236BDF042BD.gif

0540A700-FE3A-4C87-82B0-07A78BEE10F3.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

If the Hurricane gets slower as it approaches the East Coast I think it would make it a weak Cat 5. :(

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Oh boy..

By 72 h and beyond, light shear from the southeast and east
along with the development of strong upper-level outflow jets to
the north of Florence is expected to create an environment that
favors significant and possibly even rapid strengthening.
120H  13/0600Z 30.9N  75.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
52 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Is mogreps resolution too clever at six days? ukmo did well with some of last seasons storms when it disagreed with the ec/gfs - my comment on ‘non event’ related to its lack of strengthening compared to the rest of the models. I don’t believe the ukgm resolution is going to be responsible for this difference. 

the next ec run will be of great interest to NHC, given the gfs 06z. I wonder what the GFSP will show? 

NHC hold the ECM tropical product in high regard and it contributes a fair weight to the official NHC track guidance so yes it’s an interesting few days coming up. Of course we’re still very much in the guess range but you get a feeling this is in full ramp preparation mode and could be a big story by early next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Florence took a gulp of dry air as the precip built and moved around. 

The precip around the core is moving nicely round  and mixing of dry air should be pretty easy. 

Outflow still expanding. 

98546B28-4F3A-495D-8768-0304DFE32A1A.png

2E3EE1BB-CFEA-4EE0-A9FA-F1D5F0319167.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Interesting last update from the NHC:

Florence has undergone a dramatic structural evolution just within the past 6 hours or so.

Looks like the period of dramatic intensification is just about underway with the NHC calling for a Major Category 4 storm from Tuesday until the end of the forecast period (day 5).  Northern Florida to North Carolina appear to be the favoured areas for landfall.  

Definitely one to watch, if Florence develops in line with these forecasts she won't be far from a Cat 5?

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

To be a fish or not a fish. That is the question

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
19 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

To be a fish or not a fish. That is the question

Lol

The 12z Aprege on the other hand takes Florence to the North Carolina coast although the run finishes when things are getting interesting. Not clear whether it she would make proper landfall or re-curve to the northeast at this stage but it is closer to the coast than ICON.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
16 minutes ago, karyo said:

Lol

The 12z Aprege on the other hand takes Florence to the North Carolina coast although the run finishes when things are getting interesting. Not clear whether it she would make proper landfall or re-curve to the northeast at this stage but it is closer to the coast than ICON.

Looks like the 12z GFS is going the same way.  Doesn't quite make landfall, just sits off the coast of North Carolina for 24 hours plus, no doubt bringing massive rain totals?  This is for next Friday afternoon

gfsna-0-150.png?12

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