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Iceberg

Hurricane Florence

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48 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Unfortunately it doesnt, it means brave people will risk their lives to save stupid people.

 

Latest Recon aircraft flying out, Florence is 104 miles ESE of Charleston S Carolina

That is incorrect.

The 2pm local fix had the centre 845miles off the NC coast. It’s not due to make landfall for another two days yet.

And reference the people who stay behind - they’re not all hot headed weather freaks. I have friends who care for an elderly couple in Myrtle Beach who will get to the local shelter along with others in a similar position. There is such a thing as choice as well.

Edited by nsrobins

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Ec has taken a nasty twist. 

It stalls the system just offshore with the eye over water but the eye wall just reaching land  for 2-3 days  

Rainfall totals. Some areas 1m of rain. 

Wilmington for example has gusts of 100mph or more continuously for nearly 48 hrs

AD5D18F6-389A-4E12-928E-E1B633401CCF.jpeg

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Must admit, was checking text at NOAA as didn't think it was 104 miles. It's moving 295/14kn which would mean land fall in under 10 hours at that range if 104 miles was to the eye. A more likely range perhaps was 1040 miles at an earlier fix?

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I have to say to all the people that moan about rain in the UK - this is what you call rain!!!   -    to put it in perspective, if the more extreme model runs verify, this hurricane will give 6 months - 1 years worth of the rainfall I would expect to see in 24-48 hours, if I had that where I live, undoubtably the water would be above peoples roofs and thousands would drown.

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30 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Ec has taken a nasty twist. 

It stalls the system just offshore with the eye over water but the eye wall just reaching land  for 2-3 days  

Rainfall totals. Some areas 1m of rain. 

Wilmington for example has gusts of 100mph or more continuously for nearly 48 hrs

AD5D18F6-389A-4E12-928E-E1B633401CCF.jpeg

But signs also of salvation. Stall another 50 miles and it doesn't hit

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43 minutes ago, nsrobins said:

That is incorrect.

The 2pm local fix had the centre 845miles off the NC coast. It’s not due to make landfall for another two days yet.

And reference the people who stay behind - they’re not all hot headed weather freaks. I have friends who care for an elderly couple in Myrtle Beach who will get to the local shelter along with others in a similar position. There is such a thing as choice as well.

Indeed, it is incorrect, I meant TO Florence, the aircraft was 104 miles offshore when I posted.🙃

Indeed there is choice, my comment referred to the fact that brave people will always risk their lives to save people who make the choice to stay if they call 911

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Meto mogreps ens after with the ec.  The sharp turn back down the coast is clearly visible in most of them. Yikes!

florence atm has the highest dvorak t rating that it’s had from adt at 6.2. 

The system is going through some deep intensification currently. With multiple tornados in the eye wall. 

Still no recon for ages but I think we might have flight winds if 160-170kts and surface winds of 125-135kts. Ie I think this is right on the edge of a cat 5 at the moment. 

Without recon I am hearing that nhc are about to up her to 120kts which is conservative. 

55832B59-3BEF-41BD-942B-CBF0347280CC.png

541D0ABD-705B-4422-9F68-CE367538F2C1.png

78A82FD4-A56C-4B2F-8C60-871856E869E1.gif

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So they have raised her to 120kt which they agree could be conservative, T numbers have increased a touch since this update was written. 

Very bad news that the storm is bigger with bigger wind radius than they thought. 

Tbh it’s difficult for things to get much worse for the Carolinas. Unless of corse recon go in and find a cat 5. 

Microwave satellite data indicate that Florence completed a full
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) a few hours ago, and recent visible
and infrared imagery suggests that the eye has contracted slightly.
Outflow continues to expand in all quadrants, and the outflow jets
to the northwest and east have become better defined. Satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT are all
T6.0/115 kt, and recent NHC objective intensity estimates are
T6.2/120 kt. Given that the eye has mostly cleared out and has also
warmed to near 19 deg C, the initial intensity has been bumped
upward to 120 kt, which could be conservative. All of the wind radii
had to be expanded/increased based on a blend of the earlier
reconnaissance data and a 1430 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass.

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NHC are saying she'll likely be cat 3 before landfall.

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9 minutes ago, Lauren said:

NHC are saying she'll likely be cat 3 before landfall.

Yes strictly. On the below they are saying at 2pm thur she will be a cat 4. Over the next 24hrs from that she will be sat approx 3-4 miles off shore as a cat 3. 

But you have to remember the eye is currently 30 miles across and the hurricane winds 100 miles. The eye wall will be 5-10 miles out from the edge of the eye. 

So for all purposes Wilmington for example will have 24 hrs of cat 4 winds before the hurricane slows down to only 100kts before the centre reaches the coast. 

I’ll be honest, looking At this I would expect 70-80% of the city of Wilmington to be destroyed. 

A2023FDD-993C-4B4C-B9C0-0715BF096F86.png

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4 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

T numbers have just gone to 6.3. And 6.4.

7.0 is a clear cat 5. 

Out of interest, where do you find these?

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If that eye shrinks, the storm intensifies.

If that eye shrinks too much, an outer eyewall can develop.

If an outer eyewall develops, she undergoes an EWRC and de-intensifies... but does so at the cost of becoming a larger storm.

After EWRC, it's then a question of whether she has the time and environmental conditions to reintensify.

The bigger she is and the more intense she is, the worse it gets for the Carolinas.... not to mention Pittsburgh down the line (all that moisture has to be dumped somewhere once the storm's not intense enough to support it aloft, after all).

Basically, there's no scenario in which this ends well as things stand.

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9 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

Out of interest, where do you find these?

You can see them here at least, under Tno:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2018/adt/text/06L-list.txt

The scale used is here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique#Details_of_the_method

Edited by BornFromTheVoid

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22 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Yes strictly. On the below they are saying at 2pm thur she will be a cat 4. Over the next 24hrs from that she will be sat approx 3-4 miles off shore as a cat 3. 

But you have to remember the eye is currently 30 miles across and the hurricane winds 100 miles. The eye wall will be 5-10 miles out from the edge of the eye. 

So for all purposes Wilmington for example will have 24 hrs of cat 4 winds before the hurricane slows down to only 100kts before the centre reaches the coast. 

I’ll be honest, looking At this I would expect 70-80% of the city of Wilmington to be destroyed. 

A2023FDD-993C-4B4C-B9C0-0715BF096F86.png

Long way to go before that becomes likely ...... raw ec 12z run didn’t have sustained winds much above 20m/s but did dump biblical amounts of rainfall on Wilmington.  I agree that it’s tough to see an outcome which isn’t pretty devastating for the Carolinas up to thirty, perhaps forty miles inland....... but I still expect the major story from Florence to be re flooding rather than wind. 

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Crikey😟. Taken around 30 minutes ago

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Edited by OddSpot

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GFS 18z gives those ridiculous rainfall levels for longer and over a wider area.

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7 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Euro and GFS both have a slam on the brakes and south west movement around landfall.

Such uncertainty 

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My personal opinion is that Florence will move further inland than forecast due to underdevelopment of 94L in the GOM creating a larger weakness.

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