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Hurricane Florence

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On ‎14‎/‎09‎/‎2018 at 08:08, mb018538 said:

Indeed - the wind was never going to be the main problem with this storm. The fact that up to 40 inches of rain could fall in places will be the ultimate disaster, much like Harvey last year.

Hi Guys...

Has anyone seen the rainfall totals that Florence accumulated?

Did we manage to get the 3 - 4 feet promised?

I think that 10 -12 inches are fairly normal for a Hurricane.

I have actually 'been through' 24 inches from a storm in Aussie, so what are the actual figures inn terms of wind and rainfall?.

MIA

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8 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Hi Guys...

Has anyone seen the rainfall totals that Florence accumulated?

Did we manage to get the 3 - 4 feet promised?

I think that 10 -12 inches are fairly normal for a Hurricane.

I have actually 'been through' 24 inches from a storm in Aussie, so what are the actual figures inn terms of wind and rainfall?.

MIA

The largest totals of rainfall from the start appear to be around 40 inches in parts of North Carolina which is more then what a fair few places get in the UK annually.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45544424

The winds luckily eased off a bit before landfall although they were still at 110mph. The floodwaters may carry on rising and peak on Tuesday. Given Florence is having a foray further inland the risk of landslides is also high.

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5 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The largest totals of rainfall from the start appear to be around 40 inches in parts of North Carolina which is more then what a fair few places get in the UK annually.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45544424

The winds luckily eased off a bit before landfall although they were still at 110mph. The floodwaters may carry on rising and peak on Tuesday. Given Florence is having a foray further inland the risk of landslides is also high.

QS..

Thanks for your reply.

I was asking for actual rainfall numbers not MSM versions.

 I think that your version is a bit  'off the mark'.

CNN have just reported that Wilmington (live report) has received around 15 inches, over 4 -5 days.

It appears to be in the middle of the rainfall charts.

I think that 40 inches would have produced similar results to those in the Philippines.

So far I have seen people wading around in about 1 foot of water, although rivers clearly are in spate.

I have also watched  Storm Chases like Bret Adair and he seems to be freely moving around the area, with no rain falling.

I watched him on Thursday when the storm hit and from the front, ( not the island in front of Wilmington),  he reported wind speeds of 75 mph.  Right on the Cat 1 lower limit.  This continued for a few hours before dropping to 40 - 60 mph gusts.   (this was all live).

Also note the Met Office have just issued warnings of similar gusts for the North of the UK for Wednesday. 

MIA

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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DnPUff2UcAAVhX8.thumb.jpg.7531606071827930b86faa7c199e44cc.jpg

Edited by Mapantz
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5 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

QS..

Thanks for your reply.

I was asking for actual rainfall numbers not MSM versions.

 I think that your version is a bit  'off the mark'.

CNN have just reported that Wilmington (live report) has received around 15 inches, over 4 -5 days.

It appears to be in the middle of the rainfall charts.

I think that 40 inches would have produced similar results to those in the Philippines.

So far I have seen people wading around in about 1 foot of water, although rivers clearly are in spate.

I have also watched  Storm Chases like Bret Adair and he seems to be freely moving around the area, with no rain falling.

I watched him on Thursday when the storm hit and from the front, ( not the island in front of Wilmington),  he reported wind speeds of 75 mph.  Right on the Cat 1 lower limit.  This continued for a few hours before dropping to 40 - 60 mph gusts.   (this was all live).

Also note the Met Office have just issued warnings of similar gusts for the North of the UK for Wednesday. 

MIA

 

StormTotalQPF_SFC1.png

 

40 inches of rain in the most exposed areas sounds entirely reasonable in the most exposed areas the highest totals from Florence updated as of today are:

Elizabethtown: 35.93 inches                   
Swansboro: 33.89 inches                  
Gurganus: 30.38 inches                                      
Hofmann Forest: 29.62 inches                                      
Hampstead: 29.52 inches                                      
Sunny Point: 27.44 inches                
Oak Island: 26.98 inches                                      
Wilmington: 26.58 inches                                    
Whiteville: 25.91 inches                                      
Newport/Morehead City: 25.20 inches               
Mount Olive: 25.04 inches  

https://edition.cnn.com/us/live-news/florence-flooding-north-carolina/index.html

So Wilmington has got more then the 15 inches you mentioned earlier. Thankfully its beginning to clear though some GFS runs suggest it will do something similar to Ivan and curve back I hope this isn't the case.

It sounds like you are trying to play down the impacts of the storm MIA but apart from the unexpected weakening prior to landfall it has been exceptionally well forecast. It still made landfall as a category 2 hurricane and I don't think the winds in the UK compare to anything observed by Florence.

I know climate change deniers won't like it but in the North Atlantic the relationship between ACE and tropical Atlantic SST is undeniable, especially when you take the influence of ENSO away. I spent a whole dissertation looking at this....

We may not see more tropical storms forming but the intensification of them will be greater and stronger hurricanes will track over higher latitudes, you only have to look at Ophelia last year as an example. 

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Live at the moment as the Lumber river rises.

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Here is a 104 hr loop of Florence,no wonder there is flooding.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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