Hurricane Florence

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

And that’s probably the main reason-  I have heard it said by a few being interviewed .. “need to look out for my stuff.. it’s all I have”

So true materialistic with no care for a life, and only things. The very very sad thing is there won’t be either left when she goes through, and nothing left whatsoever  to loot. 

The sad thing is criticism people get for wanting to make something of themselves by working hard and then protect what they've got.

[FetchCB]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The sad thing is criticism people get for wanting to make something of themselves by working hard and then protect what they've got.

And to bear in mind that in the States there is no such thing as Social Care. Although there are Disaster Emergency Schemes and Federal Flood Insurance, there is a real chance that if you lose your home you will be on the streets.

 

As is almost always the case in these types of events its the poorest that bear the brunt.

[Had Worse]

The frying pan webcam, 34 miles off the  coast of NC is whistling and wailing. Rewind about 50 minutes ago and it wasn't.

[ciel]

1 hour ago, Snipper said:

I suppose the media is flocking in so they can be seen by the world being blown away?  Always annoys me when the public at large are told to evacuate or not go anywhere the media has to go. Double standards. I suppose it is to satisfy those who want to see death and destruction. 

Media has a role in bringing general attention to the impact of severe climatic events on human beings and highlighting the need for adaptation to/modification of these situations.

What is sad, though, is how quickly the media forgets the trauma and turns its attention to the next impending disaster.

Edited September 13, 2018 by ciel

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, ciel said:

Media has a role in bringing general attention to the effects of severe climatic events on human beings and highlighting the need for adaptation to/modification of these situations.

What is sad, though, is how quickly the media forgets the trauma and turns its attention to the next impending disaster.

Genoa bridge, Japan floods, all gone off the main news now.

[Polar Bear]

42 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The sad thing is criticism people get for wanting to make something of themselves by working hard and then protect what they've got.

I’m not critising about how people want  to make something of themselves or ever will.... So get that right as I hope you aren’t trying to make that point at me. 

Btw  BBC made an interesting piece about why people stay too... I’ll try to find it.. but herd mentality was one of them, and as it was such a rare thing people genuinely don’t know what to do.. 

[Yarmy]

There's an article here on why people can be reluctant to evacuate:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2018/09/12/why-do-people-stay-put-during-hurricanes-heres-what-psychology-says/?utm_term=.a6da8a949e55

 

[Frosty hollows]

31 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

The frying pan webcam, 34 miles off the  coast of NC is whistling and wailing. Rewind about 50 minutes ago and it wasn't.

And the webcams along the coast showing an eerie calm. 

Come daylight, should be able to see Florence on the horizon surely?

[karyo]

So the slow weakening of Florence has continued overnight and she is now a category 2 with 110mph winds. She is not classed as a major hurricane anymore. The NHC was expecting her to be a category 4 at this stage and cat 2 at landfall so something has caused her to lose some steam. The main concern of course will be the rainfall especially for Southern Carolina and Georgia.

[pip22]

Jonathan Erdman‏Verified account @wxjerdman 2m2 minutes ago

So it begins. First outer rainbands of #Florence are now arriving in the Outer Banks. Eye now discernible in radar. It's downhill from this point on. https://wxch.nl/2QpFCb5

Edited September 13, 2018 by pip22

[Rambo]

10 hours ago, Staffordshire said:

The human race

Oh dear lol

[Nick F]

Although Florence has weakened to cat 2, the weakening associated with increased shear and dry air entrainment at the unusually higher latitude which Florence has been tracking west than would be the case with track further south, but the weakening only of max wind speeds while the strong wind field has become larger as the storm expands in extent, couple this with slowing down as it approaches North Carolina coast, the threat from catastrophic flooding from storm surge and heavy/prolonged rainfall remains and coastal areas of NC and SC will still be affected by hurricane force winds.

[Reg Sealey]

10 hours ago, crimsone said:

If they know the risks, then they are inviting death, and putting at risk those good people who would try to save them. Simple as that.

That's not brave. There is no world in which that is brave. It's idiotic.

The risks are in the graphics above.... they have a major hurricane bearing down on them, and they've basically been warned (if they've even bothered listening), that their island is likely going to be forcefully overwashed by sea, and battered by air.

If they think "I know better so I'm not listening" then they're idiots. If they think "Well, it's only a chance that might happen" then they're idiots. If they think "If we're wrong, someone will save us and it'll be OK" then they're idiots.

The information we have is out there for a reason.

everybody has a right to do as they please. if they all are determined to stay then that is their choice. they must have experience and history of this sort of event.

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, Reg Sealey said:

everybody has a right to do as they please. if they all are determined to stay then that is their choice. they must have experience and history of this sort of event.

As long as they don't then expect other folks to risk their lives rescuing them, that's fine...Rights have associated consequences?

Edited September 13, 2018 by Ed Stone

[Yarmy]

6 minutes ago, Reg Sealey said:

everybody has a right to do as they please. if they all are determined to stay then that is their choice. they must have experience and history of this sort of event.

They do, and it tells them that people die in large numbers when they don't evacuate. Hurricane Floyd killed 57 in 1999.

[FetchCB]

Will soon be sunrise in Wilmington. Have been listening via The Frying Pan WebCam at the wind, which is strangely hypnotic and scary at the same time. As I'm in the office I have headphones on and after 20 mins took them off, the relative silence was startling.

For those that choose to stay im Not sure I could endure listening to that sound for hours on end

[Polar Bear]

16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

As long as they don't then expect other folks to risk their lives rescuing them, that's fine...Rights have associated consequences?

Indeed. There is always that focus on ‘a right’ to do something .. but there’s the responsibility sometimes seems to be forgotten. 

Whatever choices have been made I wish everyone well and all come out physically safe n sound. 

[knocker]

[crimsone]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

20 inches.

20 INCHES!

That's in the realm of talking about rainfall not in inches but in feet!

Dammit.... that's HALF A METER of rain!

[milkmaid]

slightly different take on the choosing to stay ,there was a chap who posted about riding his horse along a road ,and everyone was saying he and his horse should evacuate ,he said he wished he could ,but he couldn't abandon his horse and to evacuate it would cost 2 dollars a mile and then stabling ,possibly getting stuck on the freeway ,with a horse in a trailer ,in winds and flooding ,so he was staying ,he was not on on of the islands though ,so i suppose some people just cannot afford it ,

[Wivenswold]

8 minutes ago, milkmaid said:

slightly different take on the choosing to stay ,there was a chap who posted about riding his horse along a road ,and everyone was saying he and his horse should evacuate ,he said he wished he could ,but he couldn't abandon his horse and to evacuate it would cost 2 dollars a mile and then stabling ,possibly getting stuck on the freeway ,with a horse in a trailer ,in winds and flooding ,so he was staying ,he was not on on of the islands though ,so i suppose some people just cannot afford it ,

You've made a fantastic point there. How tragic and a timely reminder that many will have heart-breaking decisions to make. 

[Derecho]

11 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Models have a long way to go she was meant to be cat 4 at this stage without much in her way. 

 

Agreed, micrometeorology is so hard to model and in this case it has helped ease the intensity of the hurricane. However it is still carrying a huge amount of rainfall and that is the main threat this storm poses.

Still its a good time to take stock as well, would the track have been so accurately forecast 20 years ago in terms of its track?. A landfall around the Carolina's has been apparent for a week now I think. Such warnings further in advance could allow vital preperation for events. Though the flooding will be catastrophic 

Edited September 13, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[crimsone]

This is a pretty fantastic storm surge visualisation....

 

 

[Skullzrulerz]

How come this hurricane is a lot weaker then forecasted ?

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

How come this hurricane is a lot weaker then forecasted ?

Its still a strong hurricane, especially for its latitude. However from what I've read the eyewall replacement cycle yesterday took longer then forecast allowing more dry air into the hurricane which weakened it a bit. Someone may stand to correct me.