Hurricane Florence

[Nick F]

Both GFS and ECMWF stall Florence around the Carolinas coastal areas through Friday, Saturday and Sunday. So although hurricane force winds and resultant storm surge  will be an issue at first with landfall, Florence may be remembered for its historic devastating flooding from prolonged heavy rain. 

 

Edited September 12, 2018 by Nick F

[crimsone]

12 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Both GFS and ECMWF stall Florence around the Carolinas coastal areas through Friday, Saturday and Sunday. So although hurricane force winds and resultant storm surge  will be an issue at first with landfall, Florence may be remembered for its historic devastating rainfall from prolonged heavy rain. 

How many 500 year storms can you even have in half a decade?

[Had Worse]

3 minutes ago, crimsone said:

How many 500 year storms can you even have in half a decade?

Maths isn't my strong point but I get 0.1 for the answer.

[Nick L]

5 minutes ago, crimsone said:

How many 500 year storms can you even have in half a decade?

With how much we're screwing up the climate, I dread to think!

[karyo]

Florence has weakened a bit compared to earlier today. The winds are down to 120mph. I wonder if this slight weakening trend will continue tomorrow as she gets closer to land.

[crimsone]

Quote

 

Maths isn't my strong point but I get 0.1 for the answer.

500 year storms (or 100 year storms) are so-called for the probability of their occurrence, so technically, if you wait long enough, 50 in 5 years is possible.

I was just commenting that Harvey really wasn't all that long ago, with respect to biblical volumes of rainfall.

Edited September 12, 2018 by crimsone

[matty40s]

24 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Only hope the folk  on Ocracoke islands wellies are as big as their balls .

well if they watched a Mike Theiss video of Katrina they may well be trying to get off the island now...

 

[Nick L]

5 minutes ago, karyo said:

Florence has weakened a bit compared to earlier today. The winds are down to 120mph. I wonder if this slight weakening trend will continue tomorrow as she gets closer to land.

Just illustrates the ridiculous power in these things when you can say this about the sustained winds!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, matty40s said:

well if they watched a Mike Theiss video of Katrina they may well be trying to get off the island now...

 

One things for sure anyway, New Orleans wont be holding any more pop concerts after that one with Katrina and the waves was a complete washout.

[toggerob]

I only briefly caught the press-conference given by Trump earlier today but he stated that FEMA and other agencies have enough food to last "a few days" for those evacuated. Slightly concerning as there's still vast area's of New Orleans still condemned after Katrina.

[Mokidugway]

Going to be a long day in the Carolinas  even without factoring in angular  momentum from the storm   slowing the planet down

Edited September 12, 2018 by Mokidugway

[Nick L]

No politics please. Quoting politicians is fine.

[Nick L]

11 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

I only briefly caught the press-conference given by Trump earlier today but he stated that FEMA and other agencies have enough food to last "a few days" for those evacuated. Slightly concerning as there's still vast area's of New Orleans still condemned after Katrina.

Even more reason for those in the firing line to get the hell out of there!

[Hurricane Debby]

3 hours ago, Lauren said:

Swells are already showing but winds are due about midday tomorrow our time, give or take.

Thank you 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Even more reason for those in the firing line to get the hell out of there!

You have to give those 200 credit for staying though, bravery.

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You have to give those 200 credit for staying though, bravery.

Lol , id say stupidity

[Nick L]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You have to give those 200 credit for staying though, bravery.

Completely disagree. If they want to risk their own lives, go right ahead. But no doubt there will be selfless souls who will be willing to risk their lives to save them when they inevitably get into a life-threatening situation.

They're stupid, not brave.

Edited September 12, 2018 by Nick L

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

Completely disagree. If they want to risk their own lives, go right ahead. But no doubt there will be selfless souls who will be willing to risk their lives to save them when they inevitably get into a life-threatening situation.

They're stupid, not brave.

But maybe some (obviously not all) just love severe weather, does that same rule that applies to hurricane chasing also apply to tornado chasing.

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But maybe some (obviously not all) just love severe weather, does that same rule that applies to hurricane chasing also apply to tornado chasing.

Was waiting for this! There's a huge difference. They're on an isolated island with no possibility of escape and are obviously completely oblivious to the dangers and taking a totally unnecessary risk. Any credible tornado chaser always has an escape route and is fully aware of the risks. It's far easier to escape an isolated supercell with numerous road options away from it than a tropical storm hundreds of miles across with no transport options. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

Was waiting for this! There's a huge difference. They're on an isolated island with no possibility of escape and are obviously completely oblivious to the dangers and taking a totally unnecessary risk. Any credible tornado chaser always has an escape route and is fully aware of the risks. It's far easier to escape an isolated supercell with numerous road options away from it than a tropical storm hundreds of miles across with no transport options. 

Also you probably wouldn’t call people who chase tornadoes / supercell storms ‘brave’.

Balls like tractor wheels? Yes. Wreckless? Absolutely... but not ‘brave’.

[matty40s]

its been interesting watching the downtown Wilmington camera in the last few days,

from Monday with many strolling people on the boardwalks, lots of boats,

yesterday, with boats clearing out both ways, the restaurant owner still open but taking down his canopies....

to today, few walkers, hardly any boats, restaurant shut - although still people coming along thinking it will be open - and 2 kayakers paddling down the calm river.

 

[crimsone]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

But maybe some (obviously not all) just love severe weather, does that same rule that applies to hurricane chasing also apply to tornado chasing.

A cat 4 produces a storm surge of "greater than 6 feet above ground" for most of Ocracoke. Ocracoke is 3 feet asl.
 

The word for when the sea does that to an island is "overwashing".

Even a category 2 storm carries some pretty serious risks with it on Ocracoke....

Nobody loves severe weather so much that they actively choose to be killed by it... but to put the lives of those good people who would try to save them at risk too... well, that's selfishness of the highest degree.

We're not talking about people that know all the risks, understand them, realise what the margin of error is, and have the knowledge and experience to mitigate that risk in order to stay safe. We're talking selfish idiots.

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Was waiting for this! There's a huge difference. They're on an isolated island with no possibility of escape and are obviously completely oblivious to the dangers and taking a totally unnecessary risk. Any credible tornado chaser always has an escape route and is fully aware of the risks. It's far easier to escape an isolated supercell with numerous road options away from it than a tropical storm hundreds of miles across with no transport options. 

 

1 minute ago, crimsone said:

A cat 4 produces a storm surge of "greater than 6 feet above ground" for most of Ocracoke. Ocracoke is 3 feet asl.
 

The word for when the sea does that to an island is "overwashing".

Even a category 2 storm carries some pretty serious risks with it on Ocracoke....

Nobody loves severe weather so much that they actively choose to be killed by it... but to put the lives of those good people who would try to save them at risk too... well, that's selfishness of the highest degree.

We're not talking about people that know all the risks, understand them, realise what the margin of error is, and have the knowledge and experience to mitigate that risk in order to stay safe. We're talking selfish idiots.

But they must know the risks, they have been told about them surely, I still drink loads of alcohol even though I have quite serious liver damage.

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

But they must know the risks, they have been told about them surely, I still drink loads of alcohol even though I have quite serious liver damage.

They will have been told, yes. But unless they're quite literally on a suicide mission, I honestly do not see what is to be gained by staying? Certainly the risks far outweigh whatever benefits there may be. 

Don't get me wrong, I would like to witness the full force of a Hurricane. But for me, the risks far outweigh that curiosity. 

Edited September 12, 2018 by Nick L

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Nick L said:

They will have been told, yes. But unless they're quite literally on a suicide mission, I honestly do not see what is to be gained by staying? Certainly the risks far outweigh whatever benefits there may be. 

I wouldn't stay personally, based on evidence but I can see other reasons as well, not wanting their personal possesions falling into thieves hands, also, I want to go blizzard chasing across Saddleworth moor, hopefully I will get the chance this winter but I could well come a cropper doing that, but I don't expect anyone to save me, I do so at my own risk.