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North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......

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5 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Surprise fall overnight, a shower which lasted albeit 30 mins has given a 2cm covering. Although its far from anything significant it is a pleasant surprise nevertheless.

Looks like I got this one wrong, but I am fairly certain that this will be all we will see in this location in terms of snowfall for the rest of the winter, with themps set to gradually rise and a return to westerly zonality heading into February.

Yes GFS looking horrible last few runs overall but metO still hinting at something cold albeit dry for us

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Just now, Dkeane3 said:

Yes GFS looking horrible last few runs overall but metO still hinting at something cold albeit dry for us

Yes mate, and in fairness GFS has been pretty much spot on recently.

 

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5 minutes ago, Wardlegacy said:

Which models do you use to come to that forecast?

GFS mostly and past experiences in addition to weather trends and patterns.

Why?

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Just now, Barmada_Casten said:

Yes mate, and in fairness GFS has been pretty much spot on recently.

 

Haha the reason I'm optimistic is because of the GFS's horrible performance regarding Thursdays snowfall

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Just now, Dkeane3 said:

A few pics of the stunning local snowfall

20190130_094851.jpg

20190130_095823.jpg

20190130_094854.jpg

Superb mate! Parts in around Manchester seem to have done really well for once.

Enjoy it - much deserved!

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1 minute ago, Barmada_Casten said:

GFS mostly and past experiences in addition to weather trends and patterns.

Why?

Because it seems at odds with what I am seeing 

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1 minute ago, Dkeane3 said:

Haha the reason I'm optimistic is because of the GFS's horrible performance regarding Thursdays snowfall

Thursdays snowfall is a non event for the majority in the region, the midlands/south will get an absolute pummelling.

Will be avoiding the news that day that's for sure! 😞

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2 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Superb mate! Parts in around Manchester seem to have done really well for once.

Enjoy it - much deserved!

Yes for once, really happy with it, you'll get your chance soon 😁

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For my sanity Thursdays low is a no-goer BUT weirder things have happened and there has been a slight shift north on the 6z...who knows?

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Anyone in the Chorley area getting snow from this next incoming shower?

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2 minutes ago, Dkeane3 said:

Yes for once, really happy with it, you'll get your chance soon 😁

Got a surprise couple of cm's overnight which was a bonus for me in all honesty as it certainly was not forecasted or expected.

Those are the ones you cherish the most.

Edited by Barmada_Casten
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south midlands! us in the north midlands will be dry as well its definitely a 1/10 for winter even cheshire gap streamers have delivered nothing this year...least some of you guys have had a great crisp white morning been nice to see

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2 minutes ago, Alister said:

Anyone in the Chorley area getting snow from this next incoming shower?

Yes still heavy snow here.

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Output doesn't look too bad to me 6z suggesting an easterly. 

GFSOPEU06_228_1.png

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This mornings snow was a lovely surprise. Driving to work in sub zero temps with heavy fluffy flakes beats wet slushy snow any day.

image.thumb.png.da9d900a3ba87f5643d0dd080dae1f59.png

 

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3 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

For my sanity Thursdays low is a no-goer BUT weirder things have happened and there has been a slight shift north on the 6z...who knows?

20% chance of getting into the very south of the region (Cheshire).

10% chance of getting into the centre of region (Lancashire, Gtr Man).

1% chance of getting into the north of the region (Cumbria and above). And if it did it would fizzle out as light snow.

Edited by Barmada_Casten

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Just now, Summerstorm said:

Output doesn't look too bad to me 6z suggesting an easterly. 

GFSOPEU06_228_1.png

Can never really get excited about an easterly. Generally useless for our region unless they are extremely potent.

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2 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Output doesn't look too bad to me 6z suggesting an easterly. 

GFSOPEU06_228_1.png

i would Ignore the trolls they can not be reasoned with

you are right hints of an easterly from the GFS

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3 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

20% chance of getting into the very south of the region (Cheshire).

10% chance of getting into the centre of region (Lancashire, Gtr Man).

1% chance of getting into the north of the region (Cumbria and above). And if it did it would fizzle out as light snow.

I would sadly agree, SO much potential was there too. Who knows?

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A decent covering here but not as much as the beast. Thought there was going to be nowt when I woke up. Looks like I was just about south enough to get into the showers.

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Met Office update for coastal regions:

6pm to 10am - Ice

Within the text it says a further 1-2cms possible. 

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Shower seems to be breaking up but will hopefully reach us 😮

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Got the lightest most patchiest of dustings here, i keep looking at the radar and its de ja vu it seems with that line of showers just skirting to the south of me, nevermind thats just how the weather goes. 

At least Barmada is happy though - thank goodness. 

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Latest from the coast just North of Blackpool,Cleveleys, Bispham area.

 Snow Shower stopped ten minutes ago.But another shower lurking just off the coast about to move in.

With some nice colours showing intensity.

Showers in the Irish Sea all the way to the North East of the Isle Of Man .Pot luck i suppose if you are in the target area😌

Sure to make their way inland.

Sky darkening now,taking shelter,a enjoyable morning so far.

Over and out.

 

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