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itsnowjoke

North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

You also have reasonable altitude there which should help 🙂

Yeah, I know it's 1.5c colder up there haha. So when I leave Crewe at 1c with sleety snow I love travelling home and seeing it turn to snow then stick everywhere.  You are ok yourself height wise too! Whatever happens it's still better than Mild, cloudy and damp.

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1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

Here is my forecast for this week for Merseyside:

 

A few showers early morning Tuesday being a mixture of rain, sleet and ice pellets.

A sharp dip in temperatures towards late morning prior to the cold front as winds back, Followed somewhat counter-intuitively by  a recovery in temperatures again with the passage of the front. 

The front will start as  a period of heavy rain with snow above 200 m. The back edge of the  front  will see falling temperatures again and snow falling to 100 m, possibly sea-level on the very back edge.

After this I’m expecting temperatures to fall away steadily during the evening as the flow slackens, hovering around freezing by midnight and below freezing inland.

There should be numerous showers overnight given the steep lapse rates and low 500 MB temperatures and I think there will be some surprises.

Showers will continue until Wednesday afternoon, possibly with more prolonged periods of snow. They should all be of snow during this time given negative DPs, 850s around -8 and the slack flow.  With the showers there is an associated risk of lightning and large hail in the strongest cells.

By Wednesday evening the wind begins to back ahead of Thursday‘s low and temperatures will fall quickly. There will be a hard frost on Thursday morning followed by a period of prolonged snow, the intensity and duration of which is still to be resolved. 

 

Nowcasting will be essential and expect the unexpected. 

Sounds good - Fingers crossed ChrisR 😀

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4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Sharing for the predicted Rain fall spread

eeeeek, thats squeaky bum time looking at those graphics- 

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The GFS on meteociel is showing up alot more snow that the EURO4.  Been disappointed by the GFS before, but it looks better now than it did at times last week. 

Then the para, is more like what the media are showing.,...

Edited by johnwirral

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Sunny with light breeze.  Not been outside yet but with the forecast 5C it won't feel all that warm.  Looks like tonight could see the matinee for the expected main snow event.

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14 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

I'm the same. I live in Audley (Staffs) but work (and come from) Crewe. Most of the weather seems more applicable with the NW thread but I have to remember that I adjoin the North Mids too.

Yeah I'm just down from Talke in Butt Lane mate, work for Sids Taxis so do quite a lot of work around Audley 

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Tell you what. That sun isn’t half warm! Warmest I’ve felt it since autumn. It’s got some strength in it now!

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1 minute ago, Andypvfc said:

Yeah I'm just down from Talke in Butt Lane mate, work for Sids Taxis so do quite a lot of work around Audley 

Live near The Gresley at the top of the hill. I'm 1 min down from there. It's 170m here but 220m at the top! Such a lot for literally 20 seconds in the car! haha.

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1 minute ago, Backtrack said:

Tell you what. That sun isn’t half warm! Warmest I’ve felt it since autumn. It’s got some strength in it now!

It's almost like the suns strength is directly related to some sort of pattern becasue every year it gets warmer then colder

Edited by frosty ground

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

eeeeek, thats squeaky bum time looking at those graphics- 

Don't you just love how in cold air the freekin PPN dries up on its way to us! In milder times it a total wash out with non-stop rain. Annoying! Looking better than the previous cold shot anyway.

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15 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Sharing for the predicted Rain fall spread

Liking the look of the shower activity following in behind 👍 

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After the 'main event' tomorrow, Euro4 showing decent snow shower activity moving across Merseyside, South Lancs and Greater Manchester during overnight period tomorrow night.

19013003_2806.gif

19013006_2806.gif

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10 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

It's almost like the suns strength is directly related to some sort of pattern becasue every year it gets warmer then colder

It's hard to notice with how often the sky is grey and filled with water up here. Yet as soon as it's snow that might fall, it disappears.

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25 minutes ago, alr1970 said:

I hope you aren't all so fixated on the models on your screens that you've missed looking the window. It's lovely out, a perfect sunny winter's day, and the light is just starting to have a springlike quality, a bit brighter than a couple of weeks ago. All that's missing is some snow underfoot...

It really is a beautiful day. Looks a lot warmer than it is to be fair.

 

If we got a week of cold, sunny days like this I'd be happy. But obviously snow would make it so much better. 

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4 minutes ago, Dexter said:

After the 'main event' tomorrow, Euro4 showing decent snow shower activity moving across Merseyside, South Lancs and Greater Manchester during overnight period tomorrow night.

19013003_2806.gif

19013006_2806.gif

I might miss these...these shower bands should be called the Manchester Streamers! haha.

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2 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

I might miss these...these shower bands should be called the Manchester Streamers! haha.

I wouldn't take alignment as gospel. Subtle changes in wind direction will make all the difference...

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Most models now showing Thursdays band pivoting over the Midlands and fizzling out the further North it goes. 

Happens every time. 

Won't correct North now. 

 

 

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MetO website updated for Crewe...more snow tomorrow now (which is great), less snow on Weds! 

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3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Most models now showing Thursdays band pivoting over the Midlands and fizzling out the further North it goes. 

Happens every time. 

Won't correct North now. 

 

 

If it keeps correcting south we're back in the game for showers though! 🙂 

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17 minutes ago, Dexter said:

After the 'main event' tomorrow, Euro4 showing decent snow shower activity moving across Merseyside, South Lancs and Greater Manchester during overnight period tomorrow night.

19013003_2806.gif

19013006_2806.gif

@Joe Bloggs... Jammy git!

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Few years ago I've seen rain turned to snow and it settles the ground instantly no problem in 5 - 10 minutes here but it was nighttime when it was happened.  I am hoping it will come true tommorow by day hopefully.

Edited by pip22

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46 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Tell you what. That sun isn’t half warm! Warmest I’ve felt it since autumn. It’s got some strength in it now!

Lol, its nowt compare to mid summer, its puny strength We are only 5 weeks after the winter solstice and if you think about it 5 weeks before the winter solstice was autumn 😋

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3 minutes ago, pip22 said:

Few years ago I've seen rain turned to snow and it settles the ground instantly no problem in 5 - 10 minutes here but it was nighttime when it was happened.  I am hoping it will come true tommorow by day hopefully.

It's a combination of ground temperature and intensity that governs whether snow will settle after rain (as well as how heavy the preceding rain was). Was an event many years ago I remember from t'other side of pennines where it rained the entire day (to the point of the road being covered in surface water) but the snow still settled as the temperature dropped overnight, think a layer of ice formed for it to settle on. Want to say it was late in 2013 but I don't keep records, so heck knows. We look okay for intensity and ground temperature tomorrow and there doesn't appear to be that sort of amount of preceding rain to worry about.

 

MetO going with some snow showers tonight as well to get us in the mood.

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The Winds making it feel Freezing here. Sun only feels warm when your inside and its reflecting off my glass windows

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