North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......

[Snowy L]

Its a case of the cold behind the front playing catch up, which is why the east of the country will do better as the front slows down. There has been a tiny bit of a slow down for our region too. Yesterday was showing the front clearing my area by 3pm, today my area is in the middle of the front at 3pm. If it can slow down a bit more our snow chances improve.

[Had Worse]

Just now, Snowy L said:

Its a case of the cold behind the front playing catch up, which is why the east of the country will do better as the front slows down. There has been a tiny bit of a slow down for our region too. Yesterday was showing the front clearing my area by 3pm, today my area is in the middle of the front at 3pm. If it can slow down a bit more our snow chances improve.

Must remind myself, your in Liverpool

 

[More Runs Needed]

5 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

200m rising to 400-500m in the afternoon. Falling to 200m around midnight

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/mountain-forecasts/peak-district

For Tuesday. ??

Decent freezing levels for snow

[northwestsnow]

Euro 4 little less bullish @6z..

[More Runs Needed]

Decent upgrade for my location according to xcweather, which is based off gfs data I believe

Edited January 28, 2019 by Dkeane3

[Backtrack]

Not liking the look of this anymore. Too marginal. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Backtrack said:

Not liking the look of this anymore. Too marginal. 

Fraid latest euro4 would agree with you BT..

Lets see what the 12z says ..

[Iceaxecrampon]

28 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Since we're playing top trumps, I'm 1 mile from coast 15m above sea level 

....beat me 14miles but 0.0000000000000000000002 ASL

[Snow free zone]

That euro4 cant be right .... it actually has Preston in the snow

[frosty ground]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48189&model=gfs&var=26&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=

06z GEFS (on average) looks like 5-10cm of snow for Shaw (nearest location for me)  total for tuesday, Thursday looks anywhere from 0-10cm+

 2m temps are cold barley above freezing  

Edited January 28, 2019 by frosty ground

[northwestsnow]

euro4 48 hrs-

much better for everyone, perhaps a trough overnight tues / wed morning?

Edited January 28, 2019 by northwestsnow

[frosty ground]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

euro4 48 hrs-

much better for everyone, perhaps a trough overnight tues / wed morning?

Think Showers will be the main threat for lower levels

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

euro4 48 hrs-

much better for everyone, perhaps a trough overnight tues / wed morning?

Surely troughs should be on the FAX by now with it being less than 48 hours?

 

Probably showers.

Edited January 28, 2019 by Deep Snow please

[Spah1]

FV3 gets precipitation to reach us Thursday

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

FV3 gets precipitation to reach us Thursday

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

FV3 gets precipitation to reach us Thursday

Oh I'll go and buy the snow shovel then  

[frosty ground]

If only Liverpool had a more Arctic Influence.... (GFSP) by day 4

[pip22]

There is still time for last minute upgrades for the next 2 runs. It happened last week I think. Fingers crossed!

Edited January 28, 2019 by pip22

[Snowy L]

5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

If only Liverpool had a more Arctic Influence.... (GFSP) by day 4

We really are one of the worst places in the UK for snow. No doubt the worst along our latitude line. My hopes are on Thursday as an Atlantic low with Easterly/Southeasterly winds is one of the very few scenarios where we do well in (West facing coast with Easterly winds means we get maximum cold from the land upstream).

[Deep Snow please]

9 minutes ago, pip22 said:

There is still time for last minute upgrades for the next 2 runs. It happened last week I think. Fingers crossed!

Last week upgraded as the radar formed the showers. At least round here  Never give up. 

[northwestsnow]

14 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

We really are one of the worst places in the UK for snow. No doubt the worst along our latitude line. My hopes are on Thursday as an Atlantic low with Easterly/Southeasterly winds is one of the very few scenarios where we do well in (West facing coast with Easterly winds means we get maximum cold from the land upstream).

euro4 wed 6am looks great keep the old chin up mate

[Chris.R]

Here is my forecast for this week for Merseyside:

 

A few showers early morning Tuesday being a mixture of rain, sleet and ice pellets.

A sharp dip in temperatures towards late morning prior to the cold front as winds back, Followed somewhat counter-intuitively by  a recovery in temperatures again with the passage of the front. 

The front will start as  a period of heavy rain with snow above 200 m. The back edge of the  front  will see falling temperatures again and snow falling to 100 m, possibly sea-level on the very back edge.

After this I’m expecting temperatures to fall away steadily during the evening as the flow slackens, hovering around freezing by midnight and below freezing inland.

There should be numerous showers overnight given the steep lapse rates and low 500 MB temperatures and I think there will be some surprises.

Showers will continue until Wednesday afternoon, possibly with more prolonged periods of snow. They should all be of snow during this time given negative DPs, 850s around -8 and the slack flow.  With the showers there is an associated risk of lightning and large hail in the strongest cells.

By Wednesday evening the wind begins to back ahead of Thursday‘s low and temperatures will fall quickly. There will be a hard frost on Thursday morning followed by a period of prolonged snow, the intensity and duration of which is still to be resolved. 

 

Nowcasting will be essential and expect the unexpected. 

Edited January 28, 2019 by Chris.R

[feb1991blizzard]

27 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

We really are one of the worst places in the UK for snow. No doubt the worst along our latitude line. My hopes are on Thursday as an Atlantic low with Easterly/Southeasterly winds is one of the very few scenarios where we do well in (West facing coast with Easterly winds means we get maximum cold from the land upstream).

I bet you wished you were back in Nottingham this week!

[BlackburnChris]

Expecting some Heavy Hail as early as this afternoon , most models have showers coming in around 4pm and its freezing outside

[Chris.R]

 

Here is an interesting thing to bear in mind:

Most of what people report as hail during winter is actually ice pellets or graupel unless it’s particularly large.  Ice pellets are super-cooled water droplets which have frozen, and graupel pellets are snowflakes with a rime of frozen water droplets accumulated on them. 

Edited January 28, 2019 by Chris.R