North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......

[Spah1]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

 How do you mean? Depends at what height. For surface winds it’s easiest to use the Met or BBC apps. For winds aloft I use the Meteociel tabular data. 

You often talk about not needing as cold uppers with an east feed ahead of the front. Just taking the charts I posted above with -5 uppers and -1 dews just trying to work out if that’s going to be enough for snow. 

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, Barmada_Casten said:

I have been a member on NW since 2003 in the good old days hen the likes of Stephen Prudence and TWS (Thundery Wintry Showers) were regulars. I post on here to keep everyone in check and to provide some balance when people get carried away with snow potential for our region. Once again it may be possible that I have got this one right.

Er is that OK?

 

1 hour ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Posted originally as Barmada Casten - rubbed a few people up the wrong way and forgot my log in details. Posted as Hot Snow and lost those details as well. Always lurked and then re-registered as Barmada_Casten a few years ago.

I think Tuesdays system will slide south of the region, we may get the trail ands of some weak showers but nothing significant for the majority.

And no problem we have some good discussions but not personal or heated. 

 

20 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Significant snow was forecasted for Tuesday but it looks like the potential for anything significant is starting to fade.

I am on about Tuesdays forecasted snow.

Sorry am I missing something or is that hard to understand?

 

5 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Going against the popular opinion and giving my opinion that a forecasted snow event is slipping away and will probably not amount to much is not causing friction.

I wont be victimised for giving my opinion in real life or online!

And I will stand by my original opinion that Tuesdays forecasted snow will not be significant as originally thought for many in our region.

 

*Think I might take a break brake and poop back later*

If it was just going against popular opinion about the weather then fine, but that isn't the case is it? Look at the way you word your post's toward people, infact you have already stated this yourself in one of the posts above by saying you rub people up the wrong way.

I don't normally get into something like this but like @Deep Snow please said why are you on here?

[Spah1]

3 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

If that verifies. I'll build an igloo.

Downwelling eventually imprinting? 

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Hello what’s going on here? 

Nice!

[Day 10]

10 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

That would be the content of your posts.

 

One thing to against popular opinion, but to think your own forecasts carry more weight than the models is insanity.

lol

[Snow free zone]

20 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Move to higher ground  

Or stand on the roof ?

[Deep Snow please]

2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Downwelling eventually imprinting? 

Thought we'd passes the timeframe for that?

 

Not complaining though, hope the other models pick it up.

[Chris.R]

3 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Hahaha. How old are you? Big Nancy.

  Fair enough I did get a bit wound up before, nice and chilled now though lol

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, Snow free zone said:

Or stand on the roof ?

Not sure that'd do you much good in Preston to be frank 

[Snow free zone]

1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

Not sure that'd do you much good in Preston to be frank

Its the thought that counts at least id get a better view of the snow on the hills further inland  ......

[Chris.R]

17 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

You often talk about not needing as cold uppers with an east feed ahead of the front. Just taking the charts I posted above with -5 uppers and -1 dews just trying to work out if that’s going to be enough for snow. 

Are right well it’s worth looking at the boundary layer temperatures so 925MB, 950MB, and 975MD and taking them into account. If they are all near or below 0 then you’re likely on the right side of marginal. Also the 0C isotherm  needs to be below about 400 m, and light winds are very advantageous. Evaporative cooling can change an otherwise boring event into a very interesting one very quickly.

 500–1000 MB thickness is mainly irrelevant in that situation. Boundary layer temperatures and DP are the key. 

Edited January 27, 2019 by Chris.R

[More Runs Needed]

Wow GFS is decent, we could get lucky esp. With elevation

[Backtrack]

41 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Significant snow was forecasted for Tuesday but it looks like the potential for anything significant is starting to fade.

I am on about Tuesdays forecasted snow.

Sorry am I missing something or is that hard to understand?

Significant snow was never forecasted for Tuesday. Tuesday was the convective day with a repeat of last Tuesday likely. 

As Chris states above, the low on Tuesday pushing north is not a good thing, as it draws the energy away from the showers. Hence very little will be spawning in the Irish Sea. 

The potential was always Wednesday and Thursday, but everything is up in the air. Some models have it crossing France, others have it pasting the northern parts of the country. 

Think logically. The met office have just drawn the average and played it safe by issuing that warning. As it draws the line half way in between what a sum of all models are forecasting. It’s all to play for. The south could miss out still. The low isn’t pinned down!

[Day 10]

HIRLAM now coming into view, looking good for Tues now.

 

[iand61]

I’ve been out this afternoon so haven’t had chance to look at the various posts, especially the mad thread.

How’s it looking for our region, are we going white or staying green while others get buried in the stuff.

quick update anyone

[Backtrack]

For people worrying about dew points and uppers for the low, don’t. A lower pressure gradient means that the threshold for what we logically need is also lowered. For example, -1/-2 uppers can still produce a lot of snow, rather than rain. The lower the pressure gradient associated with a low pressure system, the more we can get away with in terms of 850’s and dews. Surface temps are important though, so ideally we don’t want the wind coming directly off the sea. 

[northwestsnow]

FAX suggests the front will cross the region tues afternoon..

 

[Backtrack]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

FAX suggests the front will cross the region tues afternoon..

 

Back edge snow then. We want a trough following

[Chris.R]

Yep forgot to mention: under low pressure geo-potential heights are  much lower. E.g. Under high pressure 850 mb maybe about 4500 ft altitude, under lower pressure as next Thursday it’s more like 3500.

Edited January 27, 2019 by Chris.R

[itsnowjoke]

This thread is starting to sound like the mad thread

[itsnowjoke]

Well it’s windy out but no snow

[Deep Snow please]

Bringing this away from the pseudo-regional mad thread contention...

 

It's a bit windy out isn't it?

 

Edit: posted this at the same time as itsnowsjoke 

Edited January 27, 2019 by Deep Snow please

[itsnowjoke]

Deep snow please how come I can’t like any of your posts

[Chris.R]

If I use my analysis I described above then I have GFS showing 12 hours of heavy snow Thursday night. 

[Backtrack]

Just now, Chris.R said:

If I use my analysis I described above then I have GFS showing 12 hours of heavy snow Thursday night. 

CHEERS CHRIS, 12 hours of rain then now! This is the north west, you can’t mention the S word! The weather knows! 

Sorry guys. Cold spell cancelled. Blame Chris.