North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Indeed. It's so fickle.

My patch really needs a direct westerly flow, as does South Lancs. 

12z GFS looks more promising for Merseyside & West Cheshire but it'll be a case of keeping an eye on the radar come the time! 

Looking at ukmo i suspect there is more of a westerly element than GFS..

[frosty ground]

Those showers leaving Northern Ireland are heading our way, also a small shower development of the Welsh coast.

[frosty ground]

Also tonight UKM app is picking up some heavy showers now before the front gets here

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Those showers leaving Northern Ireland are heading our way, also a small shower development of the Welsh coast.

Good to see people are already keeping a beady eye on proceedings !! 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Also tonight UKM app is picking up some heavy showers now before the front gets here

Look at those temps !!

I don't like the apps but if thats right your snowbound until sun, at least!!

[Chris.R]

To me the flow looks to be 290° veering 315° for a time early Wednesday, then backing again 295°. this is at the 850/800 MB steering levels on GFS. 

[Deep Snow please]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Those showers leaving Northern Ireland are heading our way, also a small shower development of the Welsh coast.

Not at all convinced that will be snow tbh.

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Those showers leaving Northern Ireland are heading our way, also a small shower development of the Welsh coast.

Those showers were all rain here, of course you will benefit from lower dew points with the sun having gone down.

[Joe Bloggs]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looking at ukmo i suspect there is more of a westerly element than GFS..

Even on GFS , I struggle to see how the bulk of the region will avoid showers come Wednesday morning.

Always unpredictable this, but look at the likely instability & the flow trajectory... 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_42_1.png

 

[Day 10]

Tuesday looking good for the Wirral.

BOOOOOOOOM!!!!

Better get my brolly!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Even on GFS , I struggle to see how the bulk of the region will avoid showers come Wednesday morning.

Always unpredictable this, but look at the likely instability & the flow trajectory... 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_42_1.png

 

I agree Joe, its the best shot of the winter for us..

Im not greedy, 3 or 4 cm will do me fine, i would be happy with that!

[Joe Bloggs]

12z GFS para is better - more of a westerly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAEU12_42_1.png

Edit - resulting in this for snow depths . A direct westerly flow means less of us miss out. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAUK12_45_25.png

Edited January 28, 2019 by Joe Bloggs

[swainclubber]

Just now, Day 10 said:

Tuesday looking good for the Wirral.

BOOOOOOOOM!!!!

Better get my brolly!

wow yeah, just what you wanted to see, no teases there!!!!

[dodge]

MEN going full ramp mode https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/heavy-snow-set-hit-greater-15744076  

Forecasters are warning that a country-wide white-out, featuring heavy snow, ice and freezing temperatures, could cause travel chaos, power outages and even injuries.

[Deep Snow please]

2 minutes ago, dodgeredee said:

MEN going full ramp mode https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/heavy-snow-set-hit-greater-15744076  

Forecasters are warning that a country-wide white-out, featuring heavy snow, ice and freezing temperatures, could cause travel chaos, power outages and even injuries.

So a dusting by Friday morning then 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

12z GFS para is better - more of a westerly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAEU12_42_1.png

Looks a carbon copy of UKMO to me that joe, or as near as damnit.

[dodge]

2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

So a dusting by Friday morning then 

If we're lucky! 

[captaincroc]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks a carbon copy of UKMO to me that joe, or as near as damnit.

There seems to be kinks in the flow too. Plus less wind should help too, less mixing.

[northwestsnow]

para got stuck at the most important frame I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad.

[Chris.R]

 Yep the slackness of the surface flow is so vital. It will tip the balance to the right side of marginal in many situations. 

[Snowy L]

Hoping to avoid tonight's showers as they will be rain anyway, get a good frost instead for tomorrow.

[Joe Bloggs]

Compare the 2 charts - op vs para. This is why the wind direction matters so much. This isn't yet resolved, given the fact even at this late stage we have disagreement.

Op : http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_45_25.png Para: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAUK12_45_25.png

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Compare the 2 charts - op vs para. This is why the wind direction matters so much. This isn't yet resolved, given the fact even at this late stage we have disagreement.

Op : http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_45_25.png Para: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAUK12_45_25.png

I dont trust either tbh, i cannot see how the vast majority across the midland etc will be snowless come wed morning.

Para one looks more believable to me, and not just because it has more snow, GFS op is a load of twaddle imho.

 

Edited January 28, 2019 by northwestsnow

[frosty ground]

16 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Those showers were all rain here, of course you will benefit from lower dew points with the sun having gone down.

They have been negative all day here and by some distance to

[Chris.R]

6 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Hoping to avoid tonight's showers as they will be rain anyway, get a good frost instead for tomorrow.

 No chance I’m afraid on both counts.