North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......

[Day 10]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Hi, I was just browsing and thought I'd just give a very quick run down:

Basically there is still a lot of uncertainty. Typically the GFS is too quick to force frontal systems NE and usually has to adjust southwards. Indeed all the models have had to do this with Tuesday's low. That is what history would argue for, and when we see ECM+ICON+GEM and the UKMO start to do that, we need to pay attention to it, especially as the GFS has a known bias for being too far north.

Could go either way, for you guys in the southern part of this area I'd still be confident of getting snow, but getting much more iffy for the likes of Cumbria. I'd suggests there is a fair chance the models will have to shift south again at some point in the next few days.

Hope you don't mind me intruding in here occasionally, I have family in the Lake District so I've got a bit of a connection!

Thanks, it's just difficult when it happens time and again. I've stated if we could get to tomorrow eve's runs showing this mornings gfs snow for Thurs then confidence grows. Still time for change but latest EC update no great. 

Edited January 28, 2019 by Day 10

[captaincroc]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

The other thing I would say though is Tuesday is looking better than it once did.

Also, whilst history and current model is trending Thursday's system south, I'd say there is nothing to say it can't/won't be able to trend back further north. We are on a watching brief here afterall!

Hi mate. I appreciate you popping in, especially to answer our IMBY posts haha.  One model had the front pivoting, which would be exciting if that was the case. When do you reckon the path of Thursday will be nailed?

[BlackburnChris]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Hi, I was just browsing and thought I'd just give a very quick run down:

Basically there is still a lot of uncertainty. Typically the GFS is too quick to force frontal systems NE and usually has to adjust southwards. Indeed all the models have had to do this with Tuesday's low. That is what history would argue for, and when we see ECM+ICON+GEM and the UKMO start to do that, we need to pay attention to it, especially as the GFS has a known bias for being too far north.

Could go either way, for you guys in the southern part of this area I'd still be confident of getting snow, but getting much more iffy for the likes of Cumbria. I'd suggests there is a fair chance the models will have to shift south again at some point in the next few days.

Hope you don't mind me intruding in here occasionally, I have family in the Lake District so I've got a bit of a connection!

there was one occasion though , think it was Feb 09 , where they expected a low to head into France right on the morning it happened , and it changed its mind and sent an unexpected snow front right up to Scotland

[Joe Bloggs]

Just saying! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAUK06_48_43.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAUK06_48_38.png

A direct westerly tends to favour Greater Manchester/South Lancs/Peak District 

[Weather-history]

13 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 I’m still waiting for his torpedo to land. 

Lol. Conspicuous he is giving short term model updates but medium to long term updatesseem to have dried up. Last such one was 19th January. Gives the impression that it isn't going to plan like that ruddy torpedo. We will see perhaps he will post a long term update.

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

there was one occasion though , think it was Feb 09 , where they expected a low to head into France right on the morning it happened , and it changed its mind and sent an unexpected snow front right up to Scotland

Lol 1 occasion in 2009.

[Backtrack]

Glacier Point isn’t a god. More often than not, he’s wrong. He has good scientific knowledge, but long range forecasting is difficult. Not as difficult as Thursdays low though, lol. 

[BlackburnChris]

3 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Lol 1 occasion in 2009.

Just making the point , last minute changes can't be rulled out , The front  moving SE tomorrow was only picked up at the weekend , originally it was just supposed to be showers for the NW

Edited January 28, 2019 by BlackburnChris

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

Hi mate. I appreciate you popping in, especially to answer our IMBY posts haha.  One model had the front pivoting, which would be exciting if that was the case. When do you reckon the path of Thursday will be nailed?

Honestly, probably on the day, maybe 12z Wednesday. Unfortunately its a VERY complex pattern and a lot depends on secondary low formations.

Also BlackburnChris, you are right, there is certainly room for changes good and bad still. The trend is for an adjustment south, but that doesn't make reality.

Edited January 28, 2019 by kold weather

[Day 10]

Just now, BlackburnChris said:

Just making the point , last minute changes can't be rulled out , The front me moving SE tomorrow was only picked up at the weekend , originally it was just supposed to be showers for the NW

I'm joking mate, I get your point  

[frosty ground]

upgraded again

[swainclubber]

hmmm the latest met office update for my area shows snow pretty much all day, from 3am tomorrow. quite often when the met shows nowt and the models show snow i get nowt. so its a good omen

[swainclubber]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

upgraded again

ha yeah i just spotted that, looks good eh

[Snow free zone]

I tend to agree with the posts above ...... you are better off going with what you know for your own location.  For a small (ish) part of the UK we often have vastly differing weather conditions within a few miles ...... snow for one is rain for another etc etc.  Models/forecasts are great but they can often be wrong.

Edited January 28, 2019 by Snow free zone

[pip22]

MetO showing heavy snow for Chorley from 12pm now to 4pm now! Bank!!

[captaincroc]

Weirdly the MetO has Crewe down for snow on Wednesday (must be showers) but the BBC has us dry as a bone. Which models do they both use again? 

[BlackburnChris]

For Dawen it carries on like this all the way till wed night ...

[jam2010]

been updated to sleet until 2 then heavy snow for a few hours then showers on and off until wednesday afternoon. i would be happy with that (hopefully it sticks after the rain)

[chicken soup]

Tuesday not looking to bad now.. I'm expecting at least a covering... Just a pity the main course on thurs looks like stopping just below us in the North Midlands. 

[Andypvfc]

I'm in both this and the West Midlands thread as with being on the Staffs / Cheshire border no one wants our house exclusively lol. Notice you guys were dead excited for Thursday but now you seem depressed as some say it's moved South. Any info for us guys in North Staffs for  Tomorrow and Thursday? . I don't look at the charts as often driving, so just rely on you guys to keep me upto date lol

[More Runs Needed]

3 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

I'm in both this and the West Midlands thread as with being on the Staffs / Cheshire border no one wants our house exclusively lol. Notice you guys were dead excited for Thursday but now you seem depressed as some say it's moved South. Any info for us guys in North Staffs for  Tomorrow and Thursday? . I don't look at the charts as often driving, so just rely on you guys to keep me upto date lol

The south of this region should get something, the system could correct further south though which has happened in the past

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Tuesday not looking to bad now.. I'm expecting at least a covering... Just a pity the main course on thurs looks like stopping just below us in the North Midlands. 

In some ways its not the end of the world, it will mean we stay very cold ..

[captaincroc]

9 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

I'm in both this and the West Midlands thread as with being on the Staffs / Cheshire border no one wants our house exclusively lol. Notice you guys were dead excited for Thursday but now you seem depressed as some say it's moved South. Any info for us guys in North Staffs for  Tomorrow and Thursday? . I don't look at the charts as often driving, so just rely on you guys to keep me upto date lol

I'm the same. I live in Audley (Staffs) but work (and come from) Crewe. Most of the weather seems more applicable with the NW thread but I have to remember that I adjoin the North Mids too.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

I'm the same. I live in Audley (Staffs) but work (and come from) Crewe. Most of the weather seems more applicable with the NW thread but I have to remember that I adjoin the North Mids too.

You also have reasonable altitude there which should help

[alr1970]

I hope you aren't all so fixated on the models on your screens that you've missed looking the window. It's lovely out, a perfect sunny winter's day, and the light is just starting to have a springlike quality, a bit brighter than a couple of weeks ago. All that's missing is some snow underfoot...