North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......

[BlackburnChris]

whatever it was last Monday it was loud , (woke me up) and was a whiteout in seconds and lasted all night untill the snow the next day

[Deep Snow please]

7 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 

Here is an interesting thing to bear in mind:

Most of what people report as hail during winter is actually ice pellets or graupel unless it’s particularly large.  Ice pellets are super-cooled water droplets which have frozen, and graupel pellets are snowflakes with a rime of frozen water droplets accumulated on them. 

Accuweather has a decent guide on thisl

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/what-is-the-difference-between-freezing-rain-sleet-snow-hail-and-graupel/70006825

2 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

whatever it was last Monday it was loud , (woke me up) and was a whiteout in seconds and lasted all night untill the snow the next day

Was heavy ice pellets and graupel here, would expect it would be about same where you are? But was heavy and loud as it bounced off the windows and ground for sure. 

Edited January 28, 2019 by Deep Snow please

[BlackburnChris]

This was Hail.

[Weather-history]

Latest Manchester TAF is going for snow 2pm to 6pm

Edited January 28, 2019 by Weather-history

[BlackburnChris]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Latest Manchester TAF is going for snow 2pm to 6pm

what today?

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Latest Manchester TAF is going for snow 2pm to 6pm

Thats great news kevin, hopefully give CS  a boost too.

[Snow free zone]

Met office forecast updated ..... now showing snow for my location from tomorrow night through to wed morning ..... ties in with the colder air moving in after the initial front passes through, and the change in wind direction.

 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw1fe28j#?date=2019-01-30

 

 

[Chris.R]

17 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Accuweather has a decent guide on thisl

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/what-is-the-difference-between-freezing-rain-sleet-snow-hail-and-graupel/70006825

Was heavy ice pellets and graupel here, would expect it would be about same where you are? But was heavy and loud as it bounced off the windows and ground for sure. Nice one. Remember that what they call sleet is actually ice pellets as they have different terminology in the US. 

 

[Day 10]

Terrible update from GP in mad thread re Thurs. 

[Deep Snow please]

Just now, Chris.R said:

  Hid in quote

Yeah, thought that one looked a bit odd...

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Terrible update from GP in mad thread re Thurs. 

They haven't even nailed tomorrow yet, worrying about Thurs is futile.

[Weather-history]

8 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

what today?

Tomorrow 

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

They haven't even nailed tomorrow yet, worrying about Thurs is futile.

I know I know

[Chris.R]

4 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Terrible update from GP in mad thread re Thurs. 

 I’m still waiting for his torpedo to land. 

[BlackburnChris]

4 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Terrible update from GP in mad thread re Thurs. 

Our area is likely to be better than the South gets tomorrow though , showers now lasting into Wednesday , where as if that low tomorrow had come further North , we would get the left of over crap from it, and it would have cut off our shower stream

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

 I’m still waiting for his torpedo to land. 

Lol I remember that

[Spah1]

4 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

They haven't even nailed tomorrow yet, worrying about Thurs is futile.

 

6 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Terrible update from GP in mad thread re Thurs. 

God dam new it 

 

[Thunder Snow]

Thursday looking rubbish for cumbria

[More Runs Needed]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

 

God dam new it 

 

Is EC out on its own though?  Still time for change 

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Terrible update from GP in mad thread re Thurs. 

Hi, I was just browsing and thought I'd just give a very quick run down:

Basically there is still a lot of uncertainty. Typically the GFS is too quick to force frontal systems NE and usually has to adjust southwards. Indeed all the models have had to do this with Tuesday's low. That is what history would argue for, and when we see ECM+ICON+GEM and the UKMO start to do that, we need to pay attention to it, especially as the GFS has a known bias for being too far north.

Could go either way, for you guys in the southern part of this area I'd still be confident of getting snow, but getting much more iffy for the likes of Cumbria. I'd suggests there is a fair chance the models will have to shift south again at some point in the next few days.

Hope you don't mind me intruding in here occasionally, I have family in the Lake District so I've got a bit of a connection!

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

Our area is likely to be better than the South gets tomorrow though , showers now lasting into Wednesday , where as if that low tomorrow had come further North , we would get the left of over crap from it, and it would have cut off our shower stream

 

49 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Here is my forecast for this week for Merseyside:

 

A few showers early morning Tuesday being a mixture of rain, sleet and ice pellets.

A sharp dip in temperatures towards late morning prior to the cold front as winds back, Followed somewhat counter-intuitively by  a recovery in temperatures again with the passage of the front. 

The front will start as  a period of heavy rain with snow above 200 m. The back edge of the  front  will see falling temperatures again and snow falling to 100 m, possibly sea-level on the very back edge.

After this I’m expecting temperatures to fall away steadily during the evening as the flow slackens, hovering around freezing by midnight and below freezing inland.

There should be numerous showers overnight given the steep lapse rates and low 500 MB temperatures and I think there will be some surprises.

Showers will continue until Wednesday afternoon, possibly with more prolonged periods of snow. They should all be of snow during this time given negative DPs, 850s around -8 and the slack flow.  With the showers there is an associated risk of lightning and large hail in the strongest cells.

By Wednesday evening the wind begins to back ahead of Thursday‘s low and temperatures will fall quickly. There will be a hard frost on Thursday morning followed by a period of prolonged snow, the intensity and duration of which is still to be resolved. 

 

Nowcasting will be essential and expect the unexpected. 

Good posts, I must admit I am far more hopeful of snow showers in between all this to deliver for coastal regions between late Tues and early weds. 

[swainclubber]

Just now, kold weather said:

Hi, I was just browsing and thought I'd just give a very quick run down:

Basically there is still a lot of uncertainty. Typically the GFS is too quick to force frontal systems NE and usually has to adjust southwards. Indeed all the models have had to do this with Tuesday's low. That is what history would argue for, and when we see ECM+ICON+GEM and the UKMO start to do that, we need to pay attention to it, especially as the GFS has a known bias for being too far north.

Could go either way, for you guys in the southern part of this area I'd still be confident of getting snow, but getting much more iffy for the likes of Cumbria. I'd suggests there is a fair chance the models will have to shift south again at some point in the next few days.

Hope you don't mind me intruding in here occasionally, I have family in the Lake District so I've got a bit of a connection!

always welcome your input mate, good to see

[Joe Bloggs]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

euro4 48 hrs-

much better for everyone, perhaps a trough overnight tues / wed morning?

Yes, the focus is Tuesday night.

You don’t even need to look at the precipitation charts, just look at the European SLP chart from GFS. 

[Snow free zone]

Thursday was always looking dodgy for how far north the ppn would make it. The models always seem to over estmate the strength of the fronts and under estimate the strength of the cold air block.  The SE wind direction also doesnt help imby.   

[kold weather]

The other thing I would say though is Tuesday is looking better than it once did.

Also, whilst history and current model is trending Thursday's system south, I'd say there is nothing to say it can't/won't be able to trend back further north. We are on a watching brief here afterall!