North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, Deep Snow please said:

Tuesday downgrade on 18z

Looks fine to me

[damianslaw]

What a grey dreary Saturday, low cloud, that dank cold feeling - roll on Spring..

Alas, its bleak mid winter, and there is lots of winter left. 

Short term - Monday night and Tuesday offer prospects of snow over the region - will depend on intensity, thicknesses on Tuesday will be favourable sub 522 dam air, however, not sure about dewpoints - less favourable lower ground due to the maritime influence, but evaporative cooling will help bring these below 0 degrees I suspect for inland elevated parts.

As for what is the best synoptical set up for snow in the NW, I would probably say - the warm or occluded front coming in from the atlantic into cold surface air, preferably stalling. In such situations snow falls easily to sea level, and there is usually a wind from the SE which helps.

Our biggest totals have occurred in such set ups, think Feb 1994, Feb 1996, late Jan 2013.

A rare synoptic that can also deliver significant snow, is the polar low.

Also fronts moving in from the south bumping into cold air, coming unstuck and moving back south - these are rare also.

Northerlies are not the best unless there is a trough feature involved, Dec 2009 a good example when troughs moved in from the NW. Easterlies again not the best unless embedded with troughs, same with NE flows.

[frosty ground]

We have all seen the I told you so posts now we have a I new it but didn’t tell you because of bullies post WTF 

same person ended the cold spell last Tuesday and then winter Wednesday didn’t want to say the cold spell would fail .

 

tuesday could be interesting for our region even lower down

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

We have all seen the I told you so posts now we have a I new it but didn’t tell you because of bullies post WTF 

same person ended the cold spell last Tuesday and then winter Wednesday didn’t want to say the cold spell would fail .

 

tuesday could be interesting for our region even lower down

Come again ?

[Frost HoIIow]

I think our region is the most diverse in the country when it comes down to snow depending on wind direction. I think the worst areas are obviously coastal areas bar exceptional events like 2010 when coastal Merseyside/Lancashire got clobbered. Manchester itself is also a strange one. Places like Stockport, Chorlton, Didsbury, Sale...basically all of south Manchester is poor for snow. But more northern and eastern areas of the city (especially the boroughs of Oldham, Rochdale, Tameside) fare much better even at modest height. You certainly don't need to live at the height of Buxton to experience decent snow events in those 3 areas.

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Come again ?

Lol wasn't just me then.

[JeffC]

1 hour ago, Barmada Casten said:

It was closed due to an accident

Not due to snow.

The accident was because of the snow. And I drove the road a few hours later and whilst perfectly passable it was distinctly wintry. And Snow still lying at village level.

[JeffC]

6 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Come again ?

No probably snow...

[JeffC]

2 hours ago, Barmada Casten said:

It was closed due to an accident

Not due to snow.

And when I was driving the road there were 3 abandoned cars and a snow plough coming towards me gritting like buggery!

[frosty ground]

19 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Come again ?

Your on ignore for a reason 

thou I do miss you moaning due to lack of snow 

[gearbox100]

Raining here in St Helens and not feeling overly cold. We did get an hour of wet snow on Friday which was unexpected. I am not overly confident for Tuesday for myself, I do think Manchester way will probably fair well.

[iand61]

Looks like the wrist slashing and pram bashing of yesterday has died down in the mad thread so I assume the models are showing something a bit better overnight.

There doesn’t sound to be much sign of the fabled easterly though with most of the action over coming days being from the NW so for once, our region could be prime spot for some decent snow.

as usual from this direction though, uppers and ground temperatures could be a bit marginal so altitude may be a factor but  intensity should help in bringing snow to the lower levels found in parts exposed to the NW.

hopefully we all see something better than a bit of transient crap and move away from what has so far been one hell of a frustrating and depressing winter.

 

[Day 10]

41 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Looks like the wrist slashing and pram bashing of yesterday has died down in the mad thread so I assume the models are showing something a bit better overnight.

There doesn’t sound to be much sign of the fabled easterly though with most of the action over coming days being from the NW so for once, our region could be prime spot for some decent snow.

as usual from this direction though, uppers and ground temperatures could be a bit marginal so altitude may be a factor but  intensity should help in bringing snow to the lower levels found in parts exposed to the NW.

hopefully we all see something better than a bit of transient crap and move away from what has so far been one hell of a frustrating and depressing winter.

 

Feb will be good

[itsnowjoke]

Well it all kicked off in here lastnight and @Day 10 thanks for thinking of me saying it was too quiet in here and as for @Mokidugway I was not out on the beer I fell asleep and missed all of you getting along so nicely

[iand61]

57 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Feb will be good

Let’s hope so.

[Deep Snow please]

Another bite of the cherry in 8 days time. 

[Frost HoIIow]

Tuesday still looking alright. Plenty of showers packing in behind the main band too which should be the white stuff for many of us. Fingers crossed.

[Day 10]

A good read when considering will it or won't it snow.

I think I tick every possible negative living here

https://www.channel4.com/news/by/liam-dutton/blogs/why-you-shouldnt-believe-a-uk-snow-forecast-more-than-three-days-ahead

[itsnowjoke]

Dry cloudy afternoon

[Mokidugway]

14 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

Dry cloudy afternoon

Same here off to Manchester shortly

 

[Backtrack]

Don’t understand why people are so bothered about what’s gonna happen in 8-10 days when we have a potentially disruptive wintry event on Monday night/Tuesday

[northwestsnow]

23 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Don’t understand why people are so bothered about what’s gonna happen in 8-10 days when we have a potentially disruptive wintry event on Monday night/Tuesday

Not according to euro 4 there isnt..of course it maybe wrong but it shows little lying snow in our regon, NI/scotland.

Edited January 20, 2019 by northwestsnow

[severe snowstorm]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not according to euro 4 there isnt..of course it maybe wrong but it shows little lying snow in our regon, NI/scotland.

The misery model strikes again! It may be correct, however, experience shows these things don't always go to plan. Will be a nowcast situation for sure. 

[Backtrack]

22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not according to euro 4 there isnt..of course it maybe wrong but it shows little lying snow in our regon, NI/scotland.

Euro 4 is a dreadful model. It’s performance over the past few winters has been questionable at best 

[Day 10]

10 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Euro 4 is a dreadful model. It’s performance over the past few winters has been questionable at best 

It's only out to 6am tues anyway, shower activity to pick up after that.