North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......

[Iceaxecrampon]

35 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

10 minute light snow flurry is far better than most of the country have done so far this winter. We're standing on the edge of the holy grail here and things can only get colder from now on. Whatever happens today, it's time to get excited about next weeks potential. There's not a chance of this being robbed from here on, it's simply too late.

Half Decent chart from the 06Z Tue - Wed in the near timescale.

Holy Grail?

But how does this compare to Dec 2010 as that was probably the 2nd Best (local - Lancashire non altitude) event i've witnessed

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Started settling at about 250m asl but nothing measurable

[chris78]

11 minutes ago, Barmada Casten said:

Light rain now.

Every year is the same, you could not make it up.

If its every year (is here to)  I cant understand why it shocks you every time?

Edited January 18, 2019 by chris78

[Iceaxecrampon]

6 minutes ago, Barmada Casten said:

Light rain now.

Every year is the same, you could not make it up.

What is your location? - you want to get your boots on....!

A while back we planned to go up Blencathra via Halls Fell - dry as a bone.

Langdale Valley 4 foot drifts after Pavey Ark to Harrison Stickle

Edited January 18, 2019 by Iceaxecrampon

[pip22]

Just rain/sleet now.

[Snow free zone]

6 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Half Decent chart from the 06Z Tue - Wed in the near timescale.

Holy Grail?

But how does this compare to Dec 2010 as that was probably the 2nd Best (local - Lancashire non altitude) event i've witnessed

 That looks like that christmas day chart from the early 2000s that gave us a decent covering 

[Makemeasnowman]

9 minutes ago, Barmada Casten said:

Light rain now.

Every year is the same, you could not make it up.

You live in the Lake District you should count yourself lucky! You can never be too far away from snow! A short drive and you’d see plenty! I used to travel from Liverpool when it snowed to see some decent stuff. Kirkstone pass etc.

[northwestsnow]

Sleet here- at best..

[The Northern Ramper]

The odd flake mixed in with cold rain here whilst those to the west at sea level have had snow :s

[Barmada Casten]

48 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

10 minute light snow flurry is far better than most of the country have done so far this winter. We're standing on the edge of the holy grail here and things can only get colder from now on. Whatever happens today, it's time to get excited about next weeks potential. There's not a chance of this being robbed from here on, it's simply too late.

I have been active on net weather forums since 2003 I would advise some caution here - comments such as 'standing on the edge of the holy grail' , 'things can only get colder' and 'no chance of getting robbed from here' are extremely naive.

I am not trying to belittle you but the amount of let-downs there have been over the years is border line inconceivable - the north west of England is not set to fair to well from this forthcoming cold spell - sorry.

[Deep Snow please]

8 minutes ago, Barmada Casten said:

I have been active on net weather forums since 2003 I would advise some caution here - comments such as 'standing on the edge of the holy grail' , 'things can only get colder' and 'no chance of getting robbed from here' are extremely naive.

I am not trying to belittle you but the amount of let-downs there have been over the years is border line inconceivable - the north west of England is not set to fair to well from this forthcoming cold spell - sorry.

I've been on these forums since 2010 (I lived on the other side of the pennines though), there has been nothing of this magnitude in this close proximity since then. I may be ramping a little bit but can you blame me at that prospect, however I genuinely believe we're on the edge of something historically significant. Others are welcome to be more cautious and less optimistic - and yes my ramping is tempered by the realisation that a few more minor cold spells have been this close and died off, and I'll eat humble pie and suffer deserved ridicule if I'm wrong but that's what the output appears to show me. I think the bottom line is even if we are robbed from here of the potential snow and potential intensity of the cold, we'll still have the coldest period of the winter; which in itself is a success as far as I'm concerned. Don't you live in a valley in the lake district anyway, so even if you see nout at your exact location you can walk up a hill to snow, whereas most of us would have to drive to see it if we missed out.

 

Back to the here and now, huge snowflakes as if someones standing in the clouds ripping feather pillowcases up, making vague attempts to stick but still melting away on the main.

Edited January 18, 2019 by Deep Snow please

[chris78]

4 minutes ago, Barmada Casten said:

I have been active on net weather forums since 2003 I would advise some caution here - comments such as 'standing on the edge of the holy grail' , 'things can only get colder' and 'no chance of getting robbed from here' are extremely naive.

I am not trying to belittle you but the amount of let-downs there have been over the years is border line inconceivable - the north west of England is not set to fair to well from this forthcoming cold spell - sorry.

Totally agree that if you live in the usual snow starved areas and you are expecting snow, its best to be cautious, better still to assume it wont snow.     But to lump the whole NW in with that is way OTT.   If I lived in the Peak District or east lancs or anywhere with elevation I think snow looks pretty likely.    Plus, for me anyway a cold spell isnt all about snow, and the chances of some really cold minimums are there for all of us, I do appreciate that many on here arent weather enthusiasts, just snow lovers.  

[Barmada Casten]

1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

I've been on these forums since 2010 (I lived on the other side of the pennines though), there has been nothing of this magnitude in this close proximity since then. I may be ramping a little bit but can you blame me at that prospect, however I genuinely believe we're on the edge of something historically significant. Others are welcome to be more cautious and less optimistic - and yes my ramping is tempered by the realisation that a few more minor cold spells have been this close and died off, and I'll eat humble pie and suffer deserved ridicule if I'm wrong but that's what the output appears to show me.

 

Back to the hear and now, huge snowflakes as if someones standing in the clouds ripping feather pillowcases up, making vague attempts to stick but still melting away on the main.

Interesting to hear and I hope you right, I would be genuinly interested to find out what you see that could be 'historically significant.'

Genuinely interested and not looking for an argument....

[WillinGlossop]

As Glossop online states snow flurries...pretty much is... snake pass fading though...

[Spah1]

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1086232633783275520

looks decent

 

[karyo]

Looking at the models for next week with a neutral eye (as I won't be here), Tuesday looks like the day when our region has the best chance of snowfall. The upper air temperatures are not looking very cold so snow settling at sea level is unlikely but further inland and with a bit of elevation should do pretty well. Then the uppers rise somewhat on Wednesday so the showers probably back to rain or a wintry mix away from the hills. After that hopefully the cold spell intensifying as we start to get a flow from the northeast but by that stage more likely to be mostly dry as things are looking now. Of course, when the cold air gets established surprise troughs can form to give some more snow and if the easterly gets a bit more strength then more areas can be affected by snow showers. 

So focus on Tuesday first and enjoy the cold spell as it unfolds.

[Winter Hill]

34 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Sleet here- at best..

Snap. 

Seems the costal community had it better

[Deep Snow please]

25 minutes ago, Barmada Casten said:

 Interesting to hear and I hope you right, I would be genuinly interested to find out what you see that could be 'historically significant.'

Genuinely interested and not looking for an argument....

Glad that your interested, and I appreciate we're all here to talk about the weather and not to get each others backs up so you're asking in good faith.

 

Whilst there's clearly nothing in the models for our region as of yet that would possibly fall into the category I've described above as yet what there's almost unanimous agreement on now is that if this cold spell lands it will be extremely long in nature. The current trend seems to be that yes it will begin as an easterly, something many of those in this region would deride as not of much interest. However we know that if cold embeds itself, the likelihood of cold continuing to deepen is high, and I doubt it's escaped many people's notice that Europe is completely and utterly in the freezer at the moment. When our wind flow is coming from the east it will be tapping into that pool; which will provide some quite serious cold weather and crucially intense snow showers, we know that the more prolonged and intense snow is the more likely it is to avoid being killed by the peninnes; so showers in the North Sea could actually be intense enough to make it across here. This is before we discuss the potential low or the fact that if we're to switch to a North Westerly, we could also be tapping into an extreme cold pool. 

 

Right out to the end of the current GFS 6z we're still in the freezer with potential day time maximum's below freezing; although equally of course it could be just above freezing. I'm always one for get the cold in first, and of course the longer that cold sticks around - and there's long term models such as the EC46 hinting that could be into February the higher the likelihood that we get disruptive snowfall; either in the form of streamers that come from the East but are intense enough; given the severe cold over Eastern Europe to hit us on this side of the penines or through showers and frontal systems from the west surviving over a cold pool established between us and Ireland - in the right circumstances; although unlikely we could see a westward frontal system come from the Atlantic provide moderate snow to Ireland, intensify in the Irish sea and then provide us with heavy snowfall. These are of course possibilities, but there possibilities that only really exist in the current scenario we have where there's the potential for proper cold - potentially dry to begin with yes - to bed in over the next 10-15 days; and where both Europe and the area to our North West are very cold too. 

 

Somewhat a fantasy, and somewhat unlikely but the potential for what would be a historically significant cold spell. I'm aware that much of this is based on things that could happen rather than things that the models actually show happening. However if we move to what the models actually show happening we're looking at - if the day time minimum temperatures come off 3-4 ice days in a row across the North West between next Tuesday and Friday. That would be a significantly cold spell although perhaps not historically significant.

 

People in this thread are welcome to and would probably be quite justified in writing me off as a fantasist (and if you're staring out your window at sleet, you are indeed even more justified in thinking me barmy) but these sort of scenarios rarely look remotely possible and at the moment they actually do, surely I'm allowed to wish and will them and yes, believe in them? But if we take today many people myself included we're forecast only sleet, and here I am staring at snow. It shows that we're already in a colder than predicted period and secondly that for all the forecasting and fantasising it doesn't mean anything until T+0

 

For me "the holy grail" I spoke of early is that potent Easterly flow followed by a Westerly/North Westerly bumping into that cold spell and providing seriously insane snow depths to our region by the end of it. And the first step, the potent Easterly, given how much Europe is currently in the freezer has already begun to set up for the next few days, with Tuesday showing most potential; but predicting snow four days out is a nonsense, it could arrive as early as Monday, possibly as late as first. Cold in first as always. 

 

Obviously, we could equally be sat here sun-bathing next week if it all goes tits up. But I think we're getting further and further away from that risk. 

Edited January 18, 2019 by Deep Snow please

[pjpauly2k]

Definately looks like Tuesday could have potential here. These are the current GFS predictions. OK only one model and not to be taken literally but definately shows the potential

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, Barmada Casten said:

Not expecting much more here today bar the 10 minute light snow shower earlier....so depressing.

Will then spend the rest of the winter watching the east get battered. 

Get a new hobby. If you are going to let something you can't control get to you then you need to get a new hobby or interest. 

 

 

[Winter Hill]

^^ that last chart looks like a Cheshire Gap streamer 

[Barmada Casten]

12 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Glad that your interested, and I appreciate we're all here to talk about the weather and not to get each others backs up so you're asking in good faith.

 

Whilst there's clearly nothing in the models for our region as of yet that would possibly fall into the category I've described above as yet what there's almost unanimous agreement on now is that if this cold spell lands it will be extremely long in nature. The current trend seems to be that yes it will begin as an easterly, something many of those in this region would deride as not of much interest. However we know that if cold embeds itself, the likelihood of cold continuing to deepen is high, and I doubt it's escaped many people's notice that Europe is completely and utterly in the freezer at the moment. When our wind flow is coming from the east it will be tapping into that pool; which will provide some quite serious cold weather and crucially intense snow showers, we know that the more prolonged and intense snow is the more likely it is to avoid being killed by the peninnes; so showers in the North Sea could actually be intense enough to make it across here. This is before we discuss the potential low or the fact that if we're to switch to a North Westerly, we could also be tapping into an extreme cold pool. 

 

Right out to the end of the current GFS 6z we're still in the freezer with potential day time maximum's below freezing; although equally of course it could be just above freezing. I'm always one for get the cold in first, and of course the longer that cold sticks around - and there's long term models such as the EC46 hinting that could be into February the higher the likelihood that we get disruptive snowfall; either in the form of streamers that come from the East but are intense enough; given the severe cold over Eastern Europe to hit us on this side of the penines or through showers and frontal systems from the west surviving over a cold pool established between us and Ireland - in the right circumstances; although unlikely we could see a westward frontal system come from the Atlantic provide moderate snow to Ireland, intensify in the Irish sea and then provide us with heavy snowfall. These are of course possibilities, but there possibilities that only really exist in the current scenario we have where there's the potential for proper cold - potentially dry to begin with yes - to bed in over the next 10-15 days; and where both Europe and the area to our North West are very cold too. 

 

Somewhat a fantasy, and somewhat unlikely but the potential for what would be a historically significant cold spell. I'm aware that much of this is based on things that could happen rather than things that the models actually show happening. However if we move to what the models actually show happening we're looking at - if the day time minimum temperatures come off 3-4 ice days in a row across the North West between next Tuesday and Friday. That would be a significantly cold spell although perhaps not historically significant.

 

People in this thread are welcome to and would probably be quite justified in writing me off as a fantasist (and if you're staring out your window at sleet, you are indeed even more justified in thinking me barmy) but these sort of scenarios rarely look remotely possible and at the moment they actually do, surely I'm allowed to wish and will them and yes, believe in them? But if we take today many people myself included we're forecast only sleet, and here I am staring at snow. It shows that we're already in a colder than predicted period and secondly that for all the forecasting and fantasising it doesn't mean anything until T+0

 

For me "the holy grail" I spoke of early is that potent Easterly flow followed by a Westerly/North Westerly bumping into that cold spell and providing seriously insane snow depths to our region by the end of it. And the first step, the potent Easterly, given how much Europe is currently in the freezer has already begun to set up for the next few days, with Tuesday showing most potential; but predicting snow four days out is a nonsense, it could arrive as early as Monday, possibly as late as first. Cold in first as always. 

 

Obviously, we could equally be sat here sun-bathing next week if it all goes tits up. But I think we're getting further and further away from that risk. 

Excellent post and an interesting read. 

As much as I would love to see that happen I would put it in the chances of <5%

[northwestsnow]

30 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Snap. 

Seems the costal community had it better

I have seen ths happen before , i cant for the life of me explain it, we are much further inland and with altitude..

Times like ths used to really jaffa cake me off, now i just shrug the old shoulders

[captaincroc]

I know I'm just over the Staffordshire border now but massive 50p flakes here. After an hour or rotating sleet, rain, snow. Starting to stick (slushy) on roofs etc

 

[The Northern Ramper]

I can only surmise that the ppn was heavier at the coast and evaporative cooling assisted those in the Liverpool area, nothing at all here other than cold rain.