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North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......


itsnowjoke

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Posted
  • Location: South Lakeland.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme events.
  • Location: South Lakeland.
9 hours ago, Makemeasnowman said:

I can see the fells and mountains of the Lake District doing seriously well for snow over the next week or so. 

On the mountains yes, but not too lower levels.

I would expect snowfall to pass south, east, north and west of where I am ... just like last year.

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL

Some members on high ground could wake up to a covering on Thursday morning. 

19011706_2_1512.thumb.jpg.2a008b434bcff3f7abb9f4836436ee96.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
16 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Some members on high ground could wake up to a covering on Thursday morning. 

19011706_2_1512.thumb.jpg.2a008b434bcff3f7abb9f4836436ee96.jpg

Go easy on me but after the slightest dusting in late October and not a flake since, the one think I don’t want to do is wake up to a covering at stupid o’clock on Thursday morning when I have an early start to a meeting darn sarf.

if it can wait until about 8 ish i’ll Be happy.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
2 hours ago, Barmada_Casten said:

On the mountains yes, but not too lower levels.

I would expect snowfall to pass south, east, north and west of where I am ... just like last year.

Not sure which event you are talking about, but if you are referring to the beast from the east event on the 28 Feb last year, we received about 4 inches, and we are only 4 miles south of Ambleside. Indeed we saw a number of snowfalls last winter giving the occasional light cover.

Alas, there could be a surprise or two for some in the region on Thursday morning, more so places with heights, but some relatively low levels might see a dusting..

Fully expecting a Met Office yellow weather warning tomorrow morning, for most of Scotland, much of NW England, NE England, Yorkshire and Lincolnshore extending into the N Midlands - it will go something like this -

'A cold northerly flow will bring the risk of snow to low levels especially in Highland and Grampian region, where snow may fall down close to sea level. Further south snow most likely to settle on ground above 200 metres, but may reach lower levels in places. Amounts are expected to be small in the region of 2cms, but locally up to 5cms and 10 cms or more on high ground in north and central scotland. More of an issue will be ice, expect treacherous conditions on untreated roads and paths.

Looking further ahead, increased risk of widespread snow anywhere at some stage next week - but too early to call just where and when at this range. Anywhere with height almost guaranteed - around the 200m mark.

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

@damianslaw

Those words Height/Altitude haunt me every winter

And probably all members in cheshire/merseyside/Grtr Manchester

ETC just looking through the MOD thread I see the Southern members

Are getting a bit excited after the most recent ECM.

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
27 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Not sure which event you are talking about, but if you are referring to the beast from the east event on the 28 Feb last year, we received about 4 inches, and we are only 4 miles south of Ambleside. Indeed we saw a number of snowfalls last winter giving the occasional light cover.

Alas, there could be a surprise or two for some in the region on Thursday morning, more so places with heights, but some relatively low levels might see a dusting..

Fully expecting a Met Office yellow weather warning tomorrow morning, for most of Scotland, much of NW England, NE England, Yorkshire and Lincolnshore extending into the N Midlands - it will go something like this -

'A cold northerly flow will bring the risk of snow to low levels especially in Highland and Grampian region, where snow may fall down close to sea level. Further south snow most likely to settle on ground above 200 metres, but may reach lower levels in places. Amounts are expected to be small in the region of 2cms, but locally up to 5cms and 10 cms or more on high ground in north and central scotland. More of an issue will be ice, expect treacherous conditions on untreated roads and paths.

Looking further ahead, increased risk of widespread snow anywhere at some stage next week - but too early to call just where and when at this range. Anywhere with height almost guaranteed - around the 200m mark.

I’m 190m lol 

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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
49 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

I’m 190m lol 

Plenty of altitude here but we still often struggle with snow.

TBH most of the North West region is pants when it comes to snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
3 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Plenty of altitude here but we still often struggle with snow.

TBH most of the North West region is pants when it comes to snow.

That’s why I hate a North westerlies. The Irish Sea really is our nemesis. 

I’D have a North easterly or Easterly every time.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
4 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Plenty of altitude here but we still often struggle with snow.

TBH most of the North West region is pants when it comes to snow.

The 200m figure is often mentioned as a reliable cut off line - but it doesn't mean places below the line won't see snow, just less chance, however, if precipitation is heavy, evaporative cooling can bring the snowline down close to sea level - this often occurs though inland, in hillier regions such as here, where extra cooling is caused when air is forced over the central lakeland fells, it happens on the eastern edges of the Pennines as well, and more generally in the Peak District.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 Thursday morning beginning to look interesting. 850s down to -8.5 or so. Just need some precipitation.  

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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
2 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Some members on high ground could wake up to a covering on Thursday morning. 

19011706_2_1512.thumb.jpg.2a008b434bcff3f7abb9f4836436ee96.jpg

"high ground"

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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

@damianslaw

Those words Height/Altitude haunt me every winter

And probably all members in cheshire/merseyside/Grtr Manchester

ETC just looking through the MOD thread I see the Southern members

Are getting a bit excited after the most recent ECM.

C.S

i would be if i lived in the south, do much better for snow than up here in an easterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

The 200m figure is often mentioned as a reliable cut off line - but it doesn't mean places below the line won't see snow, just less chance, however, if precipitation is heavy, evaporative cooling can bring the snowline down close to sea level - this often occurs though inland, in hillier regions such as here, where extra cooling is caused when air is forced over the central lakeland fells, it happens on the eastern edges of the Pennines as well, and more generally in the Peak District.

I think there’s a lot of truth in the 200m rule.

It’s amazing how often i’ve driven home from Manchester and rain and green has turned to sleet and then settling snow as I got half way up the Rossendale Valley, about 200 metres.

Beyond that it would be thicker in the town centre at about 250 metres and more still at home.

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
18 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Thursday morning beginning to look interesting. 850s down to -8.5 or so. Just need some precipitation.  

Up early that day, I'll throw a bucket over your house

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

In Leeds it's about 130m from experience which backs up what @damianslaw is saying regarding extra cooling. The Western side of the pennines would be 200m as observed by @iand61

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

The North West is a poor place for snowfall unfortunately 

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
30 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

The North West is a poor place for snowfall unfortunately 

How are the ski resorts in Yorkshire doing?  Fact is even the Highlands of Scotland do marginally better than most of England. But speaking of ski resorts they're own should get some much needed snow soon. The owners must be pretty relieved.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
46 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Poor being a huge understatement, good for drizzle and epically boring weather though

Cumbria excepted, it is a world to itself compared to the rest of the NW region, thanks to its unique geography. Coastal parts often do poor for snow, but you don't need to head too far inland and average days of snow falling and settling increases markedly, thanks to the high ground being encountered very quickly - eastern and north east Cumbria can be very snowy indeed and cold pooling can be very severe in areas around Shap, Alston and Brough for instance. 

Inland valleys in the eastern fells in particular can see snow stick for lengthy periods.

Here we are just on the right side of borderline between the milder coastal climate and the colder inland climate that pervades, exposed slightly to NE / E winds, and in prime position when fronts move in from the west into cold air. Travel 8 miles south and a white world often becomes a green world.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleveleys - Fylde Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes inc storms and gales, but mostly cold and snow.
  • Location: Cleveleys - Fylde Coast
10 hours ago, Backtrack said:

Hi Ed!

There’s some fantastic information in the Net Weather guides section of the forum. I’d advise starting there. You can always post here too with any questions he may have and I, among many others will be happy to answer!

Many thanks for this, and to @Day 10. I didn’t realise there was a guides section to the forum, I’m sure that would be of great help. I didn’t even consider YouTube, he loves to watch storm chasing documentaries on there so I’m sure that’ll please him no end.  

I would offer to help him myself but he lives around 80 miles from me and likes to learn alone (which is a good thing because if I’m being entirely honest, I just don’t have the patience to help that much!)

Thanks again fellas, 

Ed. 

Edited by Right_said_Ed
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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

850s now get as low as -9 on the WRF 0Z however precipitation becomes conspicuous by its absence just as the 850s become conducive. The wind veers to the NNW so the further south and west you are the better. Coast of North Wales looks good. 

Edited by Chris.R
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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Manchester Airport TAF indicating the first flakes of snow falling overnight 

Liverpool TAF indicating a more wintry mix of showers 

Looks like Friday might see some transient Sleet or snow briefly 

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

Ice pellets are falling here. They like small hailstones mixed with the rain. I think that is the first indication of cold air mass is arriving.

Edited by pip22
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