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DiagonalRedLine

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This is what I wrote this evening on my webpage and then published to my Facebook account Facebook and Twitter.

I am getting a lot of messages asking about heavy snowfall at the end of the month.

There are a lot of alarming reports and images of heavy snowfall for next weekend. I know some sources do write this stuff and also i am seeing some people writing this stuff too who should know better.

I have been watching this period for several day's now and the models are showing a cold spell of weather with some snow for parts of the UK.

What do I make of it all.

For snow the first thing I look for is temperature around -5c at 850hpa that's 1,500 metres I also like to see us pass the 528 line and dew point close to 0 c

I see the criteria's being met for the -5 c  and the 528 line but the dew point I am not so sure. Maybe it will during darkness hours.

If we look at this image you can see -7c at 850 hpa, so that is cold especially for the end of October.

But we are in October not December, January or February. So I see the temperature in the day being around 5 to 7 c. Yes this is cold for the end of October, but if it was the winter we would see daytime temperatures struggling to get above freezing.

So I see snow for Scotland the mountains of Wales, Bodmin moor and maybe some of the peaks on the Pennines.

I dont see any for our area but I would not rule out any precipitation during the night being a little sleety at times.

The reason I say this is because where the snow starts out it will be around -5 to -7 c but on it's journey to ground level it will meet warmer air and it will turn to rain. My observation readings from my weather station will become more importent later in the week and next weekend

I will be watching this carefully and will keep you updated.

 

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Horrible, horrible day. Dull and a near gale force NW wind, which made it feel freezing. First real reminder of why I hate winter so much.

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3 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Horrible, horrible day. Dull and a near gale force NW wind, which made it feel freezing. First real reminder of why I hate winter so much.

You've had your fun while we suffered in oppressive heat in the summer, its our turn now - revenge!

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12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You've had your fun while we suffered in oppressive heat in the summer, its our turn now - revenge!

Was just thinking the same. :)

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Just now, Storme said:

Was just thinking the same. :)

Yes, just hope we dont use all our cold up too early though. I want a repeat of Jan 1987 but sustained for months on end.

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4 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Horrid today, very windy, found much windier/colder than yesterday

Same again here. Oppressively dull & nagging strong wind. Roll on April.

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14 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Same again here. Oppressively dull & nagging strong wind. Roll on April.

Roll on January and a stonking big tropospheric Greenland ridge!!!    -  CMON - this is our year!

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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18 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Roll on January and a stonking big tropospheric Greenland ridge!!!    -  CMON - this is our year!

Roll on Jan, no thanks, don't like rain, gales and Atlantic air

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1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Roll on Jan, no thanks, don't like rain, gales and Atlantic air

You wont - you will be getting screaming N to NE winds and heavy snow.

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A sprinkle of snow possible here shortly looking at the radar. 

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Yes a few flakes here now, lovely Jubly.

Temp 1.6c

Dew -1c

Edit - Moderate snow and settling.

Edited by Polar Maritime

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First snow of erm Autumn here. Light flakes though.

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Light snow showers here this morning after the first air frost of the season, both are the first in October since 2012.

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First air frost of the season this morning for us in Telford - the cars outside were all quite white with it. 

Bright blue skies initially, but now the blue is oddly overlain by a thin layer of dark grey - it's odd, as if someone took some bright sky-blue satin and put a sheet of charcoal-grey net over it! 
Skies to N and NW are building horizontal layers of cloud, but we can still see a clear 15-20 miles easily. Sun still shining as of 10am... 

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Just had a shower here that was definitely of a wintry nature. Very fine though, but it was certainly white and you could see it was solid and rolling down the rooftops on impact. Dare I call it snow, I don't know, but it was at least graupel or something. If it could be classed as snow though it was certainly the earliest since 2008 here, though not on the level of that event of course.

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Well no doubt it's proper snow now alright. Like nobble, it's big fluffy flakes. I can hardly believe it,never truly expected this really. Not settling but it's only October so not disappointed by that this early.

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With size of flakes now massive and quiet intense it’s actually started settling on grass and roof 👀

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These flakes are huge as well. If only it was colder, causing a slight peppering now though but even then soon melting after impact.

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