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7 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

It's 100% confirmation that gfs is Crap the Met don't even have it past Birmingham lol.

Certainly is! What I think is worth remembering is what was vaguely modeled was for much much later in evening or early hours....if anything at all.

Would not bet on it though!!😁

Edited by Barometer Cat
not good englis

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2 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Relax guys..

 The precipitation has only just reached Devon.

It currently sits from Bridgewater to about Weymouth and is moving NNE.

It has started off as rain, but has rapidly turned to snow and more and more snow is being reported down in the SW thread.

The rain/snow is still strong and a clearance has now moved into SW Cornwall. Snow is reported on the beaches of North Cornwall.

They are reporting what look to be a secondary low forming south of Plymouth.

If this moves up the Channel it could be better for us.

Trust in the ICON, Its latest move is a slight northward shift.

Snow here between 9:00 and 10:00 tonight.

If the low forms this could be quite good and if you look at the precipitation (snow) down in Northern France which is moving east., it could start to move North for later.

MIA

Would'nt it be great if it did a total 360 degree pivot we woud all be happy then!!

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Well just goes to show.

Even up until about 1pm was showing a decent amount of snow here in the far south midlands. latest BBC and MET now show nothing for us. We snatch defeat from the jaws of victory once more 🙂

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14 minutes ago, Dibdabbers said:

Met afternoon forecast shows it doesn't really reach birmingham

 

Does not even reach Gloucester 🙂

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A lot of online forecasts never really getting above a 20% chance overnight. Met Office itself has cut back further to 10% now. If we do now get heavy snow tonight, it would be a real smack on the mouth for the reliability of these forecasts.Which is concerning considering how many people rely on their portable devices for information such as weather forecasts.

 

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On the radar in Ireland, the front has progressed steadily northwards to the border. If you draw a convex line along this front across Wales / England, you get a good idea where the northern extent will be. By my reckoning, Chester / Stoke / Leicester is the limit. Anywhere south and you should have snow.

Later tonight / tomorrow, places north of Leicester should catch the snow showers feeding-in off the North Sea.

 

 

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30 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

The best forecast is just looking out the window, then disappointment will be less likely.

Yes, but that's a 'nowcast' not 'forecast'

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37 minutes ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

Another tragic let down. What a joke of a winter this is turning out to be! I try (really hard) not to get frustrated by such things but what gets my goat, is that you can guarantee if it was rain forecast it would have no problem reaching any of us! Don't get me wrong, this morning was amazing, stunning hoar frost with fog, looked and felt as it should do in winter, but to last just one day, give me a break! 

Next week looks vile, temps up to around 7 - 8 with rain. What are the chances of the models having that incorrect! 

I keep hoping the models are going to flip to a more sustained pattern due to the SSW and down welling, but alas, the wait goes on... 

Time to find the funds for some proper winter holidays, if I can't get snow here, I'm going to go where the snow is! 

i couldn't agree with you more.  This winter (and even the usual UK winters) are enough to make anyone give up and go insane.  Next winter i am definately having a holiday in the snow (somewhere that it is more or less guaranteed.

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GFS (yes yes I know!)  6am tomorrow via 12z

image.thumb.png.5a92b04be0a85da698b929baa2541d66.png

 

Yeah right.....🙄

Still think could develop maybe.....

Radar and window/lamposts best bet now.☺️

Edited by Barometer Cat

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6 minutes ago, Barometer Cat said:

GFS (yes yes I know!)  6am tomorrow via 12z

image.thumb.png.5a92b04be0a85da698b929baa2541d66.png

 

Yeah right.....🙄

Still think could develop maybe.....

Radar and window/lamposts best bet now.☺️

Why are people living in false hope no one in tbe midlands will see snow maybe the far south thats about it

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Snizzle falling again for me. Too fine and light to cover, but it’s a day of falling snow, if you can call it that. 

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Gfs is preetty darn good for areas derby southwards!!to see at least falling snow!!and icon has shifted aswell!!

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2 minutes ago, shezale said:

Why are people living in false hope no one in tbe midlands will see snow maybe the far south thats about it

No false hope, it's just guess work and a bit of fun and really not to be taken seriously.😊

In all honesty, i cannot see nothing happening later.  Might be snow, sleet, snizzle or rain but looking at the radar and going roughly via models there is more likely to be some form of precipitation.

My guess, no big snow fall for us in Central mids. Maybe light snow or sleet.  Frosty start tomorrow a bit like this morning but not as cold. 😆

 

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5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs is preetty darn good for areas derby southwards!!to see at least falling snow!!and icon has shifted aswell!!

Do you see central mids in with a chance of snow?  I think possibly early hours but cannot trust models (plus I don't know enough)

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5 minutes ago, Barometer Cat said:

Do you see central mids in with a chance of snow?  I think possibly early hours but cannot trust models (plus I don't know enough)

Not to forget therss the potential for snow showers from the east coast tomorrow aswell!

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The next time we will see snow in the Midlands is next winter.

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Just now, gig1968 said:

The next time we will see snow in the Midlands is next winter.

Why? Off somewhere nice?

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Any hope is good hope. Lots of predictions, but none of us can say for sure if snow will or will not fall from the sky.

Glass of wine later and a window with a view I think.

 

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1 hour ago, #windysnow# said:

Agree. Again why has this been so difficult to forecast by the models/professionals??

 

I mentioned earlier how deplorable both bbc and met office forecasts and giving the fact we pay for this service I do feel we are getting short change  

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The forecasts promise us Beyoncé and we end up with Susan Boyle. 😲

To be fair, for a few days there's been signals that today's front could go further south. It was never a cert and I don't recall any forecasts saying as such.

 

Edited by kar999

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Clearly some people don’t understand the complexity and limitations of weather forecasting and don’t read the warnings fully.

I’m going to write off next winter as a non-event because it’s not snowing right now. Same daft logic some on here are using, and I thought my moaning was annoying!

Edited by MattStoke
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I'd bite anyone's hand off right now to see some falling snow at least

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Everyone should know by now, from years and years of model/radar watching that snow is notoriously difficult to pin down and while there can be disappointment there are often unexpected surprises too. The forecasts and or models haven't promised anything and to be fair have actually looked reasonably accurate so far despite the slight north/south alterations.

Grab a beer, chill and see what unfolds 🙂

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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Clearly some people don’t understand the complexity and limitations of weather forecasting and don’t read the warnings fully.

I’m going to write off next winter as a non-event because it’s not snowing right now. Same daft logic some on here are using, and I thought my moaning was annoying!

Exactly. I want it to snow as much as anyone on here but it is clearly out of our control so I'm not going to get upset about it if it doesn't. Especially as it's only the end of January!
 

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