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Well this could be a big failure from gfs if it doesnt go that far north!!

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6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Well this could be a big failure from gfs if it doesnt go that far north!!

Well it's doing ok so far, already into half of Ireland. Looks earlier than forecast 

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4 minutes ago, i love snow said:

Well it's doing ok so far, already into half of Ireland. Looks earlier than forecast 

 But i feel like it's already pivoting south

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11 minutes ago, shaky said:

Well this could be a big failure from gfs if it doesnt go that far north!!

Maybe....still think this is a few hours away from determining likely outcome. Proper frost out this morning at least, still sub zero 😎

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Can we just get on with spring?

the models have been so so far off the mark this year.

 

enjoy the snow if you get any everyone! 

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Recorded a minimum of -7.0 at 5am

Colder than the minimum of -6.7 from last year's Beast from the East

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ICON, ARPEGE, HIRLAM all looking much weaker in terms of intensity and northern extent this morning. Bit of a downgrade to my eyes but interesting how this pans out nonetheless! 

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Temp continues to drop here now at -7.8c, Still got around 80% snow cover everything white with air frost and very low vis freezing fog

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Some very fine snow in Derby, covered all surfaces with an icing sugar coat. Nothing on radar though.

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3 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Some very fine snow in Derby, covered all surfaces with an icing sugar coat. Nothing on radar though.

Same here in Telford, didn't notice it when looking out the window but now I'm outside waiting for the bus I'm slowly turning white.

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So the forecast goes from 12hrs of continuous snow tonight into friday to 2hrs of light snow around midnight here in coventry Lol

What a massive let down this winter has been. Looks like the snow wont even reach the south midlands

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Probably desperation, but I've noticed some models set up a convergence zone across the West Midlands and this has been consistently modelled for a few days. So, if this is correct, whilst the main lobe of the precip band may not cross much of the Midlands, there maybe some development across the CZ line. That would make sense based on previous experience where the warmer layer squeezes against the colder boundary. 

You can see in the second picture where the winds converge across Midlands, particularly areas, say, Birmingham to Stoke. Wherever (or more crucially 'if') the CZ line sets up, with any potency it could drop a few centimeters in places where it looks rather bleak for snow. 

The Euro4 (third image) sets it up across the Cheshire gap eastward, which tells me that the moisture layer has actually pushed further north, it's just that the main band of precipitation fragments across the southern Midlands, giving the illusion that it has pushed south, but I don't think this is true - the front is just being stretched to oblivion by the aforementioned squeeze. 

Hopefully this cheers some folk up!

image.thumb.png.41a930c535a07b33bf3999133cc9d287.pngimage.thumb.png.2f91e2d5ceb1a95c6d29b45908ae36f9.pngimage.thumb.png.649d8a7357cb4969beceeea476d9d4c0.png

Edited by PerfectStorm

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Slight downgrade for the big snow event not reaching so far north now.

 

 

Edited by Snowyowl9

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-5.2 currently here in Hereford against a low of -6.3 here at 2am.

Freezing fog slowly lifting.

Could be a good day for snow but we will see!

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Meh! Roll on spring. Grown tired these last 2 months or so of chasing significant cold and snow and that Canadian Lobe continues to be a pain in the proverbials.

Scrabbling and scrapping around for a couple of cm's today doesn't do it for me and it now looks like it's all going to head into the SE and Central Southern England and Wales but some parts of the South Midlands look like they could get in on the act. 

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18 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Probably desperation, but I've noticed some models set up a convergence zone across the West Midlands and this has been consistently modelled for a few days. So, if this is correct, whilst the main lobe of the precip band may not cross much of the Midlands, there maybe some development across the CZ line. That would make sense based on previous experience where the warmer layer squeezes against the colder boundary. 

You can see in the second picture where the winds converge across Midlands, particularly areas, say, Birmingham to Stoke. Wherever (or more crucially 'if') the CZ line sets up, with any potency it could drop a few centimeters in places where it looks rather bleak for snow. 

The Euro4 (third image) sets it up across the Cheshire gap eastward, which tells me that the moisture layer has actually pushed further north, it's just that the main band of precipitation fragments across the southern Midlands, giving the illusion that it has pushed south, but I don't think this is true - the front is just being stretched to oblivion by the aforementioned squeeze. 

Hopefully this cheers some folk up!

image.thumb.png.41a930c535a07b33bf3999133cc9d287.pngimage.thumb.png.2f91e2d5ceb1a95c6d29b45908ae36f9.pngimage.thumb.png.649d8a7357cb4969beceeea476d9d4c0.png

And thats probably why the heavy precipiation reaches further north up to nottingham derby on gfs!!

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3 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Slight downgrade for the big snow event not reaching so far north now.

 

 

uksnowrisk.png

Oh that's now marginal for me. Shame. 

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The Beeb and the Met have 5 hours of light snow stopping now at midnight and 1am, i know they're automated, but the warnings just seem less and less warranted - unless there is a major change in it's intensity and direction.

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Currently -6.2C, just makes me wonder how cold it would be across the Midlands if everywhere had snow cover from Tuesday's front. Hazy sunshine at present and obviously very frosty

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Worth mentioning that my low was -7.3C (coldest for this year so far).

 

Currently at -6.3C,but a beaufuiful  white scenario,

What will later bring?

 

Still I am hopeful here, but we will see.

Good luck to everyone.

MIA

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we are seeing downgrades rather than upgrades with the predicted intensity of the snow but it will be nice just to see some falling from the sky!

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Coldest night since the beast from the east at -5.7c coldest January night since 2010.😯

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