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We had a little overnight.

20190130_094820.jpg

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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

BANK!

How good is the Hirlam though? I see people bigging it up but I rarely look at it.

I'm not an expert at all but last winter it seemed to be pretty good, very accurate on a few occasions. I regularly compared it's output to the radar scans. Seemed a bit better than Arpege atleast. 

Edited by kmanmx
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image.thumb.png.b991e13c201eaf2198301d201342dfc3.png  Good run for whole of the midlands

Edited by weirpig
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4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

MMM Hirlam      shift  North

image.thumb.png.23619fe9a6e935c7c8fb66281bae9ae0.png  image.thumb.png.dbb018b8679dcaa45e3afa19464c1ac7.png  

image.png

Bankety Bank......so far we seem to have Icon slightly south not reaching bottom of m42 but then both GFS and HIrlam through the Central Midlands, plenty to still feel positive about at this stage

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

image.thumb.png.b991e13c201eaf2198301d201342dfc3.png  Good run for whole of the midlands

I'll take it.

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That's alot better for all us. Bank

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WRF NMM 

Keeps us in the game. If not the heaviest precipitation at this point.

image.thumb.png.42e7b21f713acea056de781117b327ac.png

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8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Shift south or north?

ICON, ARPEGE, HIRLAM all at 1am Fri

HIRLAM looks to be 75? miles further north than ICON.

ARPEGE somewhere inbetween the two.

 

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Updated Warnings from the Met  slightly South  but not by much 

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

WRF NMM 

Keeps us in the game. If not the heaviest precipitation at this point.

image.thumb.png.42e7b21f713acea056de781117b327ac.png

Bit marginal for me. Ask it to try again.

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Can be down to radar-watching on the day as well. The models can only do so much, they won't be dead-on with the extent of the precip band. I have seen bands forecast to reach Manchester push towards Lancaster as an example. 

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1 minute ago, PerfectStorm said:

Can be down to radar-watching on the day as well. The models can only do so much, they won't be dead-on with the extent of the precip band. I have seen bands forecast to reach Manchester push towards Lancaster as an example. 

Yep. Expect it will all come down to lamp post watching! 

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the met office  warning has been updated and it does  reduce the northern extent and start time brought forward 1 pm Thursday to 9 pm Friday 

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Yep HIRLAM is a little further north than the other models. I do think the models may have slightly over-extended how far south and may slightly re-correct back north. Not much, but a little...and a little is all some of you guys need!

FWIW HIRLAM is based off of the ECMWF framework, so in theory it should be very good (as is ARPEGE I believe). It did indeed do very well last winter (as did ICON) they are the two main ones I'd be watching in terms of details at this range.

I don't think the S.Midlands is out of the game at all, it may not be as heavy as it is further south, but it should still do ok I feel.

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The euro 4 should give us a better idea soon. 

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Arpege further South  20 ish miles North Of Brum Again

image.thumb.png.9a3fc1c24d8eb83e5b016a14fb8ccc1a.png        image.thumb.png.2948b4f5d836383617231c403577178d.png

Edited by weirpig

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The updated MetOffice warning is nothing more than a normal wintry day with some snow about.

 

 "Snow amounts will vary markedly across England and Wales with many places seeing very little accumulating snow. With cold air in place along with areas of rain and snow icy stretches are likely to form."

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3 minutes ago, MKN said:

The euro 4 should give us a better idea soon. 

I normally follow the Euro4 but it has been awful this winter so far.

We might see something at least in the north of the region. Would be nice to sit and watch some falling snow Thursday night, even if it doesn't amount to much.

I do remember that in December 2017 the models shifted everything south last minute and it looked like I would miss out but I still got about 10 cm.

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3 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Why can't Met Office post their high res models publicly, selfish buggers 😞 

 

I do get why really. I'd just really like to have access to them..

High res? For a week now their forecasts are "rain, sleet or snow" and "uncertainty" even when we are close to an event. As I have lived previously many years in Greece, most of the times gfs especially got wrong LP systems even in nowcast there. That said, these systems 7 or 8 out of 10 times move SE unless something can trigger a NE movement. The change of direction usually happens when the LP makes the landfall. So I would be cautious and patient regarding these systems. Nowcast many times held a lot of surprises in my "snow life". 😉

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1 minute ago, MKN said:

The updated MetOffice warning is nothing more than a normal wintry day with some snow about.

 

 "Snow amounts will vary markedly across England and Wales with many places seeing very little accumulating snow. With cold air in place along with areas of rain and snow icy stretches are likely to form."

1 - 3 cm in places. 5 - 10 cm for parts of Wales and the South Wales. Big downgrade on yesterday's.

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Arpege 06z is very good!!gives nearly 12 hours of snowfall for midlands!!looks better than 00z run!!

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GFSP looks good for most but, like most of the models, most of the snow stops frustratingly close to my south.

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Keeping expectation levels low and if any snow does fall then it's a bonus. Do feel though that we may need some more bites at the cherry to get a decent event; and fortunately there's still plenty of winter left. 

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13 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yep HIRLAM is a little further north than the other models. I do think the models may have slightly over-extended how far south and may slightly re-correct back north. Not much, but a little...and a little is all some of you guys need!

FWIW HIRLAM is based off of the ECMWF framework, so in theory it should be very good (as is ARPEGE I believe). It did indeed do very well last winter (as did ICON) they are the two main ones I'd be watching in terms of details at this range.

I don't think the S.Midlands is out of the game at all, it may not be as heavy as it is further south, but it should still do ok I feel.

How far north is the ecm mate?!is it further north than the gfs!!

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Does anyone know what model/s turned out to be the most accurate with yesterdays system? 

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