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There’s a gap in the middle of those snow showers and you’ll never guess who’s under it!

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9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

There’s a gap in the middle of those snow showers and you’ll never guess who’s under it!

I think wind has changed again so we will miss it!

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1 minute ago, Weatherman662 said:

I think wind has changed again so we will miss it!

It is actually snowing lightly now, and a stray shower accidentally left a fresh dusting over the frozen slush last night. The weather gods will be fuming that they’ve let these ones through 🤣

To try and be more positive, the ECM still gives all the region snow tomorrow night. Just very light north of Birmingham, so we may salvage a dusting from it yet!

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10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It is actually snowing lightly now, and a stray shower accidentally left a fresh dusting over the frozen slush last night. The weather gods will be fuming that they’ve let these ones through 🤣

To try and be more positive, the ECM still gives all the region snow tomorrow night. Just very light north of Birmingham, so we may salvage a dusting from it yet!

The front looks very patchy indeed once it gets to the midlands and fizzles out very quickly to

Just to add if i was living in hereford i would.be doing the snow dance very soon!!

Edited by shezale
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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It is actually snowing lightly now, and a stray shower accidentally left a fresh dusting over the frozen slush last night. The weather gods will be fuming that they’ve let these ones through 🤣

To try and be more positive, the ECM still gives all the region snow tomorrow night. Just very light north of Birmingham, so we may salvage a dusting from it yet!

that's the positivity I need. lol hopefully it gets life from somewhere and we all get snowed in😅

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Few flakes in the air.. just outside .. Ashbourne 

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I have to say looking at the Arpege 00z this morning its nots as strong as yesterday in terms of PPN, as someone said earlier fizzles out, but it does have the front reaching derby/notts just, but I think any further corrections south its game over!! However having said that none of the models really handled yesterday's event well so lets all be positive and will the snow to us in the midlands 🙂

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8 minutes ago, #windysnow# said:

I have to say looking at the Arpege 00z this morning its nots as strong as yesterday in terms of PPN, as someone said earlier fizzles out, but it does have the front reaching derby/notts just, but I think any further corrections south its game over!! However having said that none of the models really handled yesterday's event well so lets all be positive and will the snow to us in the midlands 🙂

Just do what I do and ignore any runs that aren't upgrades 😎

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4 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Just do what I do and ignore any runs that aren't upgrades 😎

Probably best to ignore the icon then. 😡

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1 minute ago, MKN said:

Probably best to ignore the icon then. 😡

Mehhh, it's all good. I run my own weather model made using Excel formulas and it reckons 50cm of snow for the entire midlands area 👌

Edited by kmanmx

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Looks like areas just to west (Shropshire?) are getting a covering this morning.

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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Looks like areas just to west (Shropshire?) are getting a covering this morning.

again its typical that these showers are dying out as they approach me. I know nothing was forecast today but when you see a bank of showers progressing nicely over stoke it kinda gets your hopes up. I will never learn 😞

 

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10 minutes ago, MKN said:

Probably best to ignore the icon then. 😡

Why what is it showing (trying to ignore the mod thread)

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Some lovely views on the tops this morning, light snow in Matlock with abit of a dusting down low 

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2 minutes ago, #windysnow# said:

again its typical that these showers are dying out as they approach me. I know nothing was forecast today but when you see a bank of showers progressing nicely over stoke it kinda gets your hopes up. I will never learn 😞

 

Been the same here all winter; Showers either missing by a few miles or dying out on approach. Wind direct not quite right and, had uppers been a little lower we may have had stronger convection and the showers may have lasted longer. Things just not quite falling right this winter. Imagine if yesterday's front had come in this morning, with the cold air and very cold ground we have now....

I really don't get the weather here. We get lots of small, slushy, short lived snowfalls that miss other areas but every time there's an event or the chance of proper snow, we miss out. Yet rain never has any problem lashing it down over Stoke.

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Look.how the front struggles to make it even to the south midlands!!!!

Screenshot_20190130-091329_Twitter.jpg

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3 minutes ago, shezale said:

Look.how the front struggles to make it even to the south midlands!!!!

Screenshot_20190130-091329_Twitter.jpg

 

Still over 24 hours away... enough time for corrections to the northern extent. Fingers crossed. 

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10 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

HI RES Models wiped the floor regarding the GFS, ECM and even the UKMO in these setups (last year Feb 18)

DWW..

Nice to see you are still positive.

I would like to back you up on this posting.

I would,  even more so,  go back to 10th  Dec 2017. It is more relevant as it involved that great slider for us (15cms in and around S Bham -  country sweet spot) whereby a slider was involved.

Models where equally undecided about the track for 3 - 5 days before hand, but ICON stuck to more of a central path.(varying by 100 miles North and South as a max).

Come the high resolution models (48hrs) and they were varying around the South coast to the North Mids.

The generalised models all plunged southwards,  but ICON hung on to the south Mids..

I expected hardly anything here on the morning (Sunday, I think), but got up early to watch the Test Match. Just in time for the snow to start. It rapidly gained in intensity and we had snow for 24 hrs. Further north (Keele)  had only a dusting. Further south Bristol had rain.

Now it is not quite the same situation  but similar,  and ICON has been the most 'stable'. The high res (inside 48hrs) are in general showing more snow for us, than the generalised models(which are all plunging south!).ECM is the best for our area, One never knows,and I think the models do not either.

Time will tell what happens tomorrow. I have still not lost all hope. It will come down to a 'lamp post' and 6hour situation forecasting job.

A small strengthening of the low will drive it on a more North east path, a slight disturbance in front of the main low (shown on some runs) will cause the front to pivot over us..   

MIA:oldgood:🤔:cold:

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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It shows a sizeable shift south... 

00z then 06z

iconeu_uk1-45-64-0.png

iconeu_uk1-45-58-0.png

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1 minute ago, MKN said:

It shows a sizeable shift south... 

00z then 06z

iconeu_uk1-45-64-0.png

iconeu_uk1-45-58-0.png

Ew that shows none for Stoke

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3 minutes ago, Weatherman662 said:

Ew that shows none for Stoke

Standard.

Pinning my hopes on the ECM, and that's just for a dusting. Pretty pathetic given that just a day or so ago the models had us down for about 10 cm, but we always see late southern corrections.

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It looks worse when you compare it to the charts from a couple days a go. 🤨

Screenshot_20190130_093120.jpg

iconeu_uk1-45-58-0.png

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Has as just been said icon  just North Of Brum  for the Northern extent   seems similarish to last year  were it just stalled south of Stoke.   Hopefully not 

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Interesting to see the updated Met Office warnings later. They will certainly reduce the northern extent. Just a question of how much by.

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