Midlands Regional Discussion

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Gfs way further north be intresting to see where it ends up and wich model calls it right. Stull have a horrible feeling its going South.

definitely south of m4 event mainly, think unlikely to see snow Thurs/Fri away from far south of midlands

[PolarWarsaw]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

definitely south of m4 event mainly, think unlikely to see snow Thurs/Fri away from far south of midlands

Yep, as I just posted in the mod thread! Please ignore ALL phone apps and the likes of the BBC forecast. This front is very unlikely to make it to the Midlands, certainly Birmingham. 

Its an all south event.

Been in this scenario 1 too many times to know once it goes south, it won’t head north again. 

Edited January 29, 2019 by PolarWarsaw

[Josh Rubio]

Seems to be snowing moderately now here in Leicester. Not sure how long it’ll keep its intensity up for though. 

[snowangel32]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

definitely south of m4 event mainly, think unlikely to see snow Thurs/Fri away from far south of midlands

I agree mate. Although there are warnings out they can change with the drop of a hat. Time will tell. The 00z tomorrow should have it nailed I think. Gfs though is so far north and UKMO South. Icon middle ground. ECM coming soon lol.

[Storme]

2 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Yep, as I just posted in the mod thread! Please ignore ALL phone apps and the likes of the BBC forecast. This front is very unlikely to make it to the Midlands, certainly Birmingham. 

Its an all south event.

Been in this scenario 1 too many times to know once it goes south, it won’t head north again. 

Aww that's a shame but I guess at least someone will get it. We may be thankful we don't get a dumping.

[PolarWarsaw]

1 minute ago, Storme said:

Aww that's a shame but I guess at least someone will get it. We may be thankful we don't get a dumping.

There is genuinely never a time where we should be thankful to avoid a dumping of snow, maybe if you live on a mountain in Austria, but for us? Nope, never. 

[#windysnow#]

Well we had dusting from about 4 til 6 and to be honest was better than I expected how the day has unfolded.

But if that means that the snow gods will give me a dumping on Thursday then I will take it.

i think the bbc got it right today, but in the end I think the timings were wrong, it came just to early!!!!!

[SMU]

Fridays ECM snow cut off line -

Draw a flat line west from the Wash to wales-

South ok, North

[PolarWarsaw]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Fridays ECM snow cut off line -

Draw a flat line west from the Wash to wales-

South ok, North

Desperate Steve, we need another 100 mile shift northwards. Terrible winter, topped with terrible events. Thursday being no different.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Yep, as I just posted in the mod thread! Please ignore ALL phone apps and the likes of the BBC forecast. This front is very unlikely to make it to the Midlands, certainly Birmingham. 

Its an all south event.

Been in this scenario 1 too many times to know once it goes south, it won’t head north again. 

Aye, they don't make them like this anymore, these days ruled, the m/e sucks!

[stripeyfox]

1 minute ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Desperate Steve, we need another 100 mile shift northwards. Terrible winter, topped with terrible events. Thursday being no different.

are you always this cheerful?

 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I wouldn't even bother get too hung up about Thursday. If it can change   In 24 hours one way I don't see why it can't change again in another 24 hours. We won't know until tomorrow and even then we still won't know .

[PolarWarsaw]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, they don't make them like this anymore, these days ruled, the m/e sucks!

We do get the occasional good one, last December for example. But once a trend south shows a front consistently not arriving for us, then you know you’ve had it. The fact it’s the UKMO and the ECM showing this makes it even more damning. 

Birmingham north stays bone dry IMO.

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Desperate Steve, we need another 100 mile shift northwards. Terrible winter, topped with terrible events. Thursday being no different.

It has ( to be fair as expected ) corrected south about 100 miles- ironically about the same distance that channel low has... so we in Kent have potenially missed out although im hopeful here for 2-4cm tonight along the trough from 9pm!

Edited January 29, 2019 by Steve Murr

[PolarWarsaw]

1 minute ago, stripeyfox said:

are you always this cheerful?

 

I’m a weather fan, on a weather forum in winter. It’s highly unlikely to snow when it looked as though, for most of the week - this would be the event of the winter. 

 There isn’t much to be cheery about in my comments on this forum. 

[Cazzie4717]

Hi newbie here!! Snowing for the past 30 mins in Wellingborough.. Lamppost watching haha  

[markw2680]

10 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Yep, as I just posted in the mod thread! Please ignore ALL phone apps and the likes of the BBC forecast. This front is very unlikely to make it to the Midlands, certainly Birmingham. 

Its an all south event.

Been in this scenario 1 too many times to know once it goes south, it won’t head north again. 

I’m wondering as your so sure why your not actually a weather forecaster, it’s got plenty of time to either go further north or yes miss us and go south but it’s certainly not a done deal yet so saying so is ridiculous tbh

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

We do get the occasional good one, last December for example. But once a trend south shows a front consistently not arriving for us, then you know you’ve had it. The fact it’s the UKMO and the ECM showing this makes it even more damning. 

Birmingham north stays bone dry IMO.

Aye but gone are the days like the charts I posted, where they track north, Staffs/Cheshire gets the dumping and the south rain

[#windysnow#]

2 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I wouldn't even bother get too hung up about Thursday. If it can change   In 24 hours one way I don't see why it can't change again in another 24 hours. We won't know until tomorrow and even then we still won't know .

I completely agree at 9am we were due 2 hours of heavy snow, at 11am we were due 5 hours of heavy snow in the end we got 2 hours of sleety/snow!!! So 48 hours out anything can happen! 

[Jason74]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

I’m wondering as your so sure why your not actually a weather forecaster, it’s got plenty of time to either go further north or yes miss us and go south but it’s certainly not a done deal yet so saying so is ridiculous tbh

Maybe wait until Wednesday evening/Thursday morning before we know either way! 

[PolarWarsaw]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

I’m wondering as your so sure why your not actually a weather forecaster, it’s got plenty of time to either go further north or yes miss us and go south but it’s certainly not a done deal yet so saying so is ridiculous tbh

Of course, totally understand what you are saying. But when the main models converge at this notice, especially during the 12z, the writing is on the wall. I admire your optimistic approach pal, see you posting on the mod thread frequently. But as someone else posted last night, optimism has given us zilch in the last 3 months. 

Hooefully you are right though. But I’ve seen this enough times having not moved house for 27 years, that once what is showing on tonight’s 12z happens....they don’t revert back after. If anything, it will go further south. 

[Shezale coventry]

Is it game over for the us in the midlands for thursday looks like the ecm has joined the ukmo it has all shifted south again...at this rate even the south midlands will miss out

[snowangel32]

7 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I wouldn't even bother get too hung up about Thursday. If it can change   In 24 hours one way I don't see why it can't change again in another 24 hours. We won't know until tomorrow and even then we still won't know .

If the 00z show a southward push then I think we will know it's game over but true even now the models don't agree. Gfs way further North.

[markw2680]

2 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Of course, totally understand what you are saying. But when the main models converge at this notice, especially during the 12z, the writing is on the wall. I admire your optimistic approach pal, see you posting on the mod thread frequently. But as someone else posted last night, optimism has given us zilch in the last 3 months. 

Hooefully you are right though. But I’ve seen this enough times having not moved house for 27 years, that once what is showing on tonight’s 12z happens....they don’t revert back after. If anything, it will go further south. 

Yeah you may well be right but there really is plenty of time yet for changes. Very small changes in the grand scheme of things can make big changes for the uk as a whole. I’d say we will no a lot more this time tomorrow 

[shaky]

16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Fridays ECM snow cut off line -

Draw a flat line west from the Wash to wales-

South ok, North

Thats nottingham southwards then!!am just about in the game!!