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9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Wow. I hope the latest ICON and Aperge are right. Midlands buried by the weekend.

GFS going south though already mate. Don't be surprised if we stay dry. I'm beginning to wonder if the wrap around forecast for Friday may be something more interesting for us to watch. 

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Ok, I have to reply to this because it's misleading the entire thread, iv studied radars and the weather all my life, the low pressure that formed along the south side of the main low is pushing east,

Nathan "not a weatherman" Rao of the Express says "Army on Standby as heaviest SNOWFALL hits in next 24 hours" What a bellend!    

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29 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Wow. I hope the latest ICON and Aperge are right. Midlands buried by the weekend.

I’ve been watching the Icon hi res for a number of days now, upto now it’s standing it’s ground ( hasn’t changed ) Tuesday a starter and Thursday the main course, then what is Polar Warsaw is pointing out could be the dessert....interesting times this forthcoming week for sure ?

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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17 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

GFS going south though already mate. Don't be surprised if we stay dry. I'm beginning to wonder if the wrap around forecast for Friday may be something more interesting for us to watch. 

GFS takes the front right up into Southern Scotland still. Expecting it to correct southwards towards the other models. It always does.

GFS, Aperge and ICON all showing the wrap around as the front pivots. Persistent snow for several days potentially for somewhere.

Edited by MattStoke
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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS takes the front right up into Southern Scotland still. Expecting it to correct southwards towards the other models. It always does.

GFS, Aperge and ICON all showing the wrap around as the front pivots. Persistent snow for several days potentially for somewhere.

Hopefully in our back gardens!

 

6 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

I’ve been watching the Icon hi res for a number of days now, upto now it’s standing it’s ground ( hasn’t changed ) Tuesday a starter and Thursday the main course, then what is Polar Warsaw is pointing out could be the dessert....interesting times this forthcoming week for sure ?

Yes I think it's something that's worth watching, something that tends to make sliders a lot more fun is that they weaken and fall apart where they stall. Can mean snow falling from the skies for an extended period of time. I remember last December, that the snow started around 5am and I still had flakes falling at 6 and 7PM. They may have been light but it was still accumulating. 

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I think pretty much the whole midlands is at risk of getting quite a lot of snow but places around Birmingham could be in for an absolute pasting, I’m not saying that because I live by Birmingham but just I think that’s going to be right in the middle of it all

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One thing that is noticeable about the latest MO forecast video that’s been posted in the incoming cold spell is that once the front moves through tomorrow evening, there looks to be at least potential for a few showers coming down from the NW, not many and not a streamer but if you get lucky, there’s the chance of catching one.

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In terms of Coventry I don't think you'll see snow until early Tuesday evening, maybe 4ish with rain at first as the front pushes through...revealing its tasty contents lol.

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We had a situation like this a few years back, I want to say 2011? I know it was in a barren spell (which winter 2010/11 was once December was done with).  It was a possible rain to snow situation from a low coming from the west, much like what's predicted for tomorrow. That day, sadly, it stayed all rain but you could see why the warning went out. We were so close to getting a large fall of snow but the rain just cleared through too quick.

Now someone balance it out with a recent, similar example that was successful. I know there's plenty!

Maybe some of the sliders of January 2013? Although they were forecasted to be all snow before they arrived.

I don't know, either way, this week will provide some further examples...one way or the other!

 

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3 minutes ago, snowhope said:

I think south Midland may miss out! I am retracting my earlier guess, still think that Birmingham north will do well out of this. Time will tell.

Think the whole midlands will.do ok from thursday front kind of reminds me of dec 17 could be 5-10cms widely over the whole area!!

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14 minutes ago, snowhope said:

I think south Midland may miss out! I am retracting my earlier guess, still think that Birmingham north will do well out of this. Time will tell.

other way surely? trend is south, 10 Dec '17 was great though around 12cms here, but trend was south, W Midlands had double that

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Poor trends from the 12z so far. Tomorrow looks wet rather than white, a lot of water under the bridge for the end of the week but the ECM would be poor for anyone north of Birmingham and 8/10 these systems go further south over time. 

Dont be surprised if places like Worcester end up being the northern extent. Lots to go under the bridge yet. 1 large fall would redeem this winter endlessly, but I can’t see it currently. Let’s hope other systems and streamers show up. 

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5 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Poor trends from the 12z so far. Tomorrow looks wet rather than white, a lot of water under the bridge for the end of the week but the ECM would be poor for anyone north of Birmingham and 8/10 these systems go further south over time. 

Dont be surprised if places like Worcester end up being the northern extent. Lots to go under the bridge yet. 1 large fall would redeem this winter endlessly, but I can’t see it currently. Let’s hope other systems and streamers show up. 

got to say, I agree with this, this location too low for tomorrows snow, too far south for Wednesdays dumping, too far north for thursdays dumping

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13 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

got to say, I agree with this, this location too low for tomorrows snow, too far south for Wednesdays dumping, too far north for thursdays dumping

You could call that a case of being caught between two stools??

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1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

other way surely? trend is south, 10 Dec '17 was great though around 12cms here, but trend was south, W Midlands had double that

Not so sure, Seems quite a few are going for North West only now

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11 minutes ago, Vmistry said:

Can't take this slightly further south and further north corrections anymore, too nerve wracking!! ?

Yeah i give up really dont like the chances for anything decent for my neck.of the woods tomorrow and dont think we will get much on Thursday everything is Ethier to south or north

Edited by shezale
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38 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Poor trends from the 12z so far. Tomorrow looks wet rather than white, a lot of water under the bridge for the end of the week but the ECM would be poor for anyone north of Birmingham and 8/10 these systems go further south over time. 

Dont be surprised if places like Worcester end up being the northern extent. Lots to go under the bridge yet. 1 large fall would redeem this winter endlessly, but I can’t see it currently. Let’s hope other systems and streamers show up. 

ECM gives more snow north of Birmingham than it does south of Birmingham.

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Watching snow fall I love the most, yes snow on the ground is lovely but really all this...it's north it's south drives you potty!! If it snows great if it doesn't well I'm sure there be another time. Just chill being the operative word!!!

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