Midlands Regional Discussion

[Vmistry]

And we thought Thursday would be the main event compared to Tuesday 

[Brrrrr!]

Remember folks. It's a forecast not a promise.

I hope it hits Coventry and the northern edge is well over the Midlands. But These things change, and it's more about nowcasting. I'm optimistic, but whatever I say or do the weather will do its own thing. 

[Runcible Spoon]

Just now, #windysnow# said:

Agree. Again why has this been so difficult to forecast by the models/professionals??

 

low pressure front running into high pressure - can never be completely sure the point at which the latter starts to cancel the former out. Though you would have thought in this day and age they could do it accurately

[#windysnow#]

1 minute ago, Brrrrr! said:

Remember folks. It's a forecast not a promise.

I hope it hits Coventry and the northern edge is well over the Midlands. But These things change, and it's more about nowcasting. I'm optimistic, but whatever I say or do the weather will do its own thing. 

Ive just seen a tractor fitted with big red snow ploughs front and back go throuhg the centre of Coventry ha ha ha ha I tried to stop him to see what forecast he was looking at!!!!!!

Yes we all thought this would be the main event this week, at least we had rain on Tuesday

[kmanmx]

5 minutes ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

Another tragic let down. What a joke of a winter this is turning out to be! I try (really hard) not to get frustrated by such things but what gets my goat, is that you can guarantee if it was rain forecast it would have no problem reaching any of us! Don't get me wrong, this morning was amazing, stunning hoar frost with fog, looked and felt as it should do in winter, but to last just one day, give me a break! 

Next week looks vile, temps up to around 7 - 8 with rain. What are the chances of the models having that incorrect! 

I keep hoping the models are going to flip to a more sustained pattern due to the SSW and down welling, but alas, the wait goes on... 

Time to find the funds for some proper winter holidays, if I can't get snow here, I'm going to go where the snow is! 

As for your last sentence... i've been skiing every year for the past 15 years to the alps. 1 week each year. Do you know how many times I have seen it snow in those 15 weeks ? once, and about an inch. Every single week I choose to go, it's dry and sunny. Don't get me wrong it's nice to ski in the sun, but I want to see a massive dumping of snow atleast once in my life. I just got back from Les Arcs last week, and then the day after I got back they had 60cm of fresh snow fall.  Even last year when they had a huge amount of snow and 3 meter high drifts, I still managed to choose the dry week 

Edited January 31, 2019 by kmanmx

[DIS1970]

The best forecast is just looking out the window, then disappointment will be less likely.

[#windysnow#]

2 minutes ago, Runcible Spoon said:

low pressure front running into high pressure - can never be completely sure the point at which the latter starts to cancel the former out. Though you would have thought in this day and age they could do it accurately

Thanks you your the first person to point that out and makes sense now. I agree you would think computers would be able to pick this up/forecast

[Serendipity]

Why are people talking about let downs before the event has happened? 

[snowangel32]

Icon not to bad for South mids and central mids.

 

[Essan]

1 minute ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

Another tragic let down. What a joke of a winter this is turning out to be! I try (really hard) not to get frustrated by such things but what gets my goat, is that you can guarantee if it was rain forecast it would have no problem reaching any of us!

This winter, if it was rain I still wouldn't guarantee it getting here!   Been the driest January in my records with less than half the amount of any previous January.

[Essan]

8 minutes ago, Vmistry said:

And we thought Thursday would be the main event compared to Tuesday 

If I get one single snow flake tonight, then it will have been!

[snowangel32]

1 minute ago, Serendipity said:

Why are people talking about let downs before the event has happened? 

That's the thing its not really an event for the Mids now some might catch a flurry and a covering at best.

[Essan]

2 minutes ago, Serendipity said:

Why are people talking about let downs before the event has happened? 

Same way that the day before a cold spell or heatwave starts they start moaning about how quickly it will end!

[BarometerCat]

Well 6Z GFS  had this for 3pm

Not a million miles away

 

This is for early hours

 

So maybe early days still,  need to see 12z etc.. 

 

(yes I know it's GFS.....)

 

 

 

Edited January 31, 2019 by Barometer Cat
went wrong..

[kmanmx]

4 minutes ago, Serendipity said:

Why are people talking about let downs before the event has happened? 

Why delay what you can do right away ? 

 

On a serious note, forecast is unlikely to be wrong at this timeframe. Anyone outside of south midlands is unlikely to get much if any snow. It's still worth keeping an eye out of the window and fingers crossed, forecasts can and will be wrong even in these modern times. But odds are it will be largely correct.

[Essan]

4 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Icon not to bad for South mids and central mids.

 

Up to 1.5cm for some  


 

[PhilM1]

I'm not one to get downbeat when things go bust (I'm not saying this is a bust yet) as I'm old enough and ugly enough to know that being in a Maritime air mass its always going to be difficult for models to absolutely nail these systems.

As for today and tonight, I'm just going to enjoy some radar and Mk1 Eyeball nowcasting

[MattStoke]

BBC still showing patchy snow as far north as me by the early hours of tomorrow. Far too early to write it off further south.

[#windysnow#]

2 minutes ago, Barometer Cat said:

Well 6Z GFS  had this for 3pm

Not a million miles away

 

This is for early hours

 

So maybe early days still,  need to see 12z etc.. 

 

(yes I know it's GFS.....)

 

Thats the most encouraging thing Ive seen today

[Dibdabbers]

Met afternoon forecast shows it doesn't really reach birmingham

 

[Dancerwithwings]

16 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

@Dancerwithwings Remember last night when I said people would complain about it not snowing hours before it’s due to?

Lol Matt how right you were, if it happens it happens.....there’s more to life than snowfall you know....I can’t believe I just said that 

[snowangel32]

3 minutes ago, #windysnow# said:

Thats the most encouraging thing Ive seen today

It's 100% confirmation that gfs is Crap the Met don't even have it past Birmingham lol.

[#windysnow#]

1 minute ago, snowangel32 said:

It's 100% confirmation that gfs is Crap the Met don't even have it past Birmingham lol.

lol however the metoffice had me down for 5 hours of heavy snow on Tuesday and I didnt get them

[Midlands Ice Age]

Relax guys..

 The precipitation has only just reached Devon.

It currently sits from Bridgewater to about Weymouth and is moving NNE.

It has started off as rain, but has rapidly turned to snow and more and more snow is being reported down in the SW thread.

The rain/snow is still strong and a clearance has now moved into SW Cornwall. Snow is reported on the beaches of North Cornwall.

They are reporting what look to be a secondary low forming south of Plymouth.

If this moves up the Channel it could be better for us.

Trust in the ICON, Its latest move is a slight northward shift.

Snow here between 9:00 and 10:00 tonight.

If the low forms this could be quite good and if you look at the precipitation (snow) down in Northern France which is moving east., it could start to move North for later.

MIA

[BarometerCat]

7 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

It's 100% confirmation that gfs is Crap the Met don't even have it past Birmingham lol.

Certainly is! What I think is worth remembering is what was vaguely modeled was for much much later in evening or early hours....if anything at all.

Would not bet on it though!!

Edited January 31, 2019 by Barometer Cat
not good englis