Midlands Regional Discussion

[kmanmx]

1 minute ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Does anyone know what model/s turned out to be the most accurate with yesterdays system? 

The Met Office forecast was most accurate IMO, unsurprisingly...

I think Arpege/Hirlam both overdid the amount of snow when it fell as rain/sleet for the majority.

[shaky]

Just looked at gfs p and it has defo shifted further north!!think we could be looking at slightly better 12zs maybe!!

[MKN]

1 minute ago, kmanmx said:

The Met Office forecast was most accurate IMO, unsurprisingly...

I think Arpege/Hirlam both overdid the amount of snow when it fell as rain/sleet for the majority.

I thought the euro 4 was fairly accurate yesterday when viewing the snow/rain charts. If you viewed the snow cover charts however they were less accurate which to me seemed that way anyway when you viewed the rain/snow charts which showed little. Always worth checking both when viewing the euro4. 

[Storme]

Last year, when I was still living in Charlwood in Surrey, the BftE was a shoe-in for really heavy snow. When you get a good easterly in that area you can end up with an easy 6 inches or more of snow. We had some heavy snow which all melted very quickly, despite most areas around us getting loads and it stayed. The most interesting stuff we got was frozen rain.

As an aside, when I was in Epsom, I think it was Jan 2009, we had the heaviest snowfall in the country. About 13" over about 24 hours. Again, easterly. 

My point being that neither of these 2 weather patterns were forecast. Charlwood was supposed to get a right dumping and Epsom was to get a couple of inches. Anything can change at the last minute. The best weather forecasting is the mk1 eyeball!

 

[#windysnow#]

8 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Does anyone know what model/s turned out to be the most accurate with yesterdays system? 

Arpege

Edited January 30, 2019 by #windysnow#
I think the BBC also were pretty spot on not sure what model they use

[Monkeypants]

7 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

The Met Office forecast was most accurate IMO, unsurprisingly...

I think Arpege/Hirlam both overdid the amount of snow when it fell as rain/sleet for the majority.

the iffy bbc app was bang on here yesterday...sleet until 3 then snow until 6 then nothing but a light shower. if i had planned my day on the met office info i would of been looking for mammoths in my 11 hrs of intermittent heavy snow! its funny when you run apps side by side...kinda wonder how 2 high performance systems can be so different at the same time "Actual Real Time" as well. very frustrating!

[Sparkiee storm]

7 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

The Met Office forecast was most accurate IMO, unsurprisingly...

I think Arpege/Hirlam both overdid the amount of snow when it fell as rain/sleet for the majority.

 

1 minute ago, #windysnow# said:

Arpege

Okay thanks both, going to check these more regarding tomorrows possible event seeing if they will perform the same.

[kmanmx]

Just now, Monkeypants said:

the iffy bbc app was bang on here yesterday...sleet until 3 then snow until 6 then nothing but a light shower. if i had planned my day on the met office info i would of been looking for mammoths in my 11 hrs of intermittent heavy snow! its funny when you run apps side by side...kinda wonder how 2 high performance systems can be so different at the same time "Actual Real Time" as well. very frustrating!

To be honest I was really referencing their warnings and written forecast, I ignore the Met Office app/symbols and they're nearly always complete junk.

[weirpig]

Euro 4  not the best  quite south   Brum and a tad north maybe 20 ish miles the limit

       

Edited January 30, 2019 by weirpig

[Shezale coventry]

Its the hope that kills

[stipey1]

3 minutes ago, Monkeypants said:

the iffy bbc app was bang on here yesterday...sleet until 3 then snow until 6 then nothing but a light shower. if i had planned my day on the met office info i would of been looking for mammoths in my 11 hrs of intermittent heavy snow! its funny when you run apps side by side...kinda wonder how 2 high performance systems can be so different at the same time "Actual Real Time" as well. very frustrating!

I too found the BBC forecast the most accurate yesterday predicting rain until 5ish then some sleet then a complete stop by 7-8. Only giving light snow for a few hours tomorrow evening now

[kmanmx]

Just now, stipey1 said:

I too found the BBC forecast the most accurate yesterday predicting rain until 5ish then some sleet then a complete stop by 7-8. Only giving light snow for a few hours tomorrow evening now

BBC is just MeteoGroup these days as far as i'm aware. I use their WeatherPro app and it does seem quite good. Would reccomend it.

[MattStoke]

Prediction radar on the MO site shows precipitation into South Wales and South West England by 3pm tomorrow. Not sure how that compares to other models for that time.

[pegg24]

1 hour ago, jimben said:

Looking good for Northants

Let's hope so disappointing yesterday it was.

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Prediction radar on the MO site shows precipitation into South Wales and South West England by 3pm tomorrow. Not sure how that compares to other models for that time.

[Jayfromcardiff]

I'm pretty sure the south midlands will get some decent snow tomorrow. I'm pretty downbeat about my own chances though, the met office app keeps changing.

[Jason74]

9 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

I'm pretty sure the south midlands will get some decent snow tomorrow. I'm pretty downbeat about my own chances though, the met office app keeps changing.

Get some decent cold locked in and then the opportunities will start. Hopefully today's models will continue to trend in the right direction of cold. Very cold! 

[weirpig]

Again another decent stream from around the Gap   but this year they just seem to fizzle out.

[markw2680]

I think Birmingham will be hit quite bad tbh think it’s probably going to be right in the middle of it and then gradually fizzling out over there. Nothing to do with where I live but just a feeling I have looking at latest charts etc

[DIS1970]

The Met and BBC app were both useless locally here yesterday, they both had light/heavy snowfall on and off from around lunch time, but all that fell was predominantly rain with a wee bit of light sleet and wet snow for 30 - 45 mins, so i never take that much notice of as it changes fairly frequently.

[Shezale coventry]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

I think Birmingham will be hit quite bad tbh think it’s probably going to be right in the middle of it and then gradually fizzling out over there. Nothing to do with where I live but just a feeling I have looking at latest charts etc

Hope you are right!! Being 15 miles east of birmingham might be a good spot

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I think Birmingham will be hit quite bad tbh think it’s probably going to be right in the middle of it and then gradually fizzling out over there. Nothing to do with where I live but just a feeling I have looking at latest charts etc

Agree with that. Birmingham and areas westward into Wales.

[MKN]

Icon on Sunday...

[Eskimo]

2 minutes ago, MKN said:

Icon on Sunday...

This is all too much, I can't survive another potential let down!!! 

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, MKN said:

Icon on Sunday...

Might be why the MO automated forecast is now showing snow for Sunday.