Midlands Regional Discussion

[Shezale coventry]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Thats nottingham southwards then!!am just about in the game!!

I would say Nottingham is a touch far north looking at the recent trends..

[Dancerwithwings]

My oh my, such sadness on here, if it were shucking it down with duvet size flakes Now, there would be none of this, Thursday is two days away, we’ll see come tomorrow evening......and IRA 252....you never stop going on about the past ( never look back it distracts from the now ) 

 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I know there has been a lot of despondency in MOD thread recently, due to the apparent background signals not delivering for us as hoped for. Winter 2016/17 was similar I believe in the sense it showed a lot of early promise only to come to nothing. I've got to wonder though if it would ever be possible for the background signals to be interpreted to suggest a average to mild Winter for us, only for expectations to be defied and we end up in the freezer instead. Never seems to happen mind as when someone makes a long range Winter forecast suggesting mild it always seems to be right, whereas I think it's safe to say there are far more cold and snowy Winter forecasts than there are actually cold and snowy Winters.

[snowangel32]

8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Thats nottingham southwards then!!am just about in the game!!

Your on Shaky ground lol. But it seems like evreone has discounted the gfs wich is so far north that the South miss out.But if you follow history at this rate the low will just clip the SE. Lots to be decided tomorrow.

[MattStoke]

26 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Fridays ECM snow cut off line -

Draw a flat line west from the Wash to wales-

South ok, North

Just draw a line a mile or so to the south of my house. I’m not joking. That’s how it normally goes.

[weirpig]

Low all over the place  for features such as this I very rarely look at the main models ie ecm gfs etc  I usually wait till it comes into range on the hi res models   tomorrow night should tell if we are in the game or not    if not oh well always next time 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Just draw a line a mile or so to the south of my house. I’m not joking. That’s how it normally goes.

Your post in cold hunt thread seemed bit more promising? EC precip reaches Lancashire, Aye no dumping but maybe a bit

[Jason74]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Low all over the place  for features such as this I very rarely look at the main models ie ecm gfs etc  I usually wait till it comes into range on the hi res models   tomorrow night should tell if we are in the game or not    if not oh well always next time 

Indeed. Even if we miss out on Thursday then there is still plenty of winter left before the spring. 

[snowangel32]

Just now, weirpig said:

Low all over the place  for features such as this I very rarely look at the main models ie ecm gfs etc  I usually wait till it comes into range on the hi res models   tomorrow night should tell if we are in the game or not    if not oh well always next time 

That's it fairly happy now I have seen snow and for a time it settled. So I can tick off day time Winter Snow. If we miss it then we miss it.

[Diamond Joe]

Blimey some of you in here really do need to see the lighter side of life, so it didnt snow as much as we wanted, we move onto the next chance and bet your life most of us will be back here again Thursday with childlike hope in our hearts, if only some of you could handle disappointment (should it happen) like an adult

[Wadey]

Low coming down from Scotland? Fair few showers about 

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Your post in cold hunt thread seemed bit more promising? EC precip reaches Lancashire, Aye no dumping but maybe a bit

Aye. Maybe a dusting from that.

[MKN]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Aye. Maybe a dusting from that.

As has been mentioned wait by tomorrow's 12zs and compare the hi Res models then. Providing the band makes it far enough north and starts as snow and settles readily then 4-5cms will probably be on the cards. Also worth noting the second push of precip from the south that seems to be getting more noticeable with each model output 

[MattStoke]

High resolution Euro4 model for midday Thursday, which as far as that model goes. The precipitation looks pretty weak to me.

[weirpig]

Just now, MattStoke said:

High resolution Euro4 model for midday Thursday, which as far as that model goes. The precipitation looks pretty weak to me.

Maybe  but it does seem further north   good fun though 

[Sparkiee storm]

Im feeling this event more than todays, but lets see.

 

Edited January 29, 2019 by Sparkiee storm

[BarometerCat]

It rained, then snowed, now stopping. Meh.....its just wet out. Winter just can't seem to get going!

[snowangel32]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

High resolution Euro4 model for midday Thursday, which as far as that model goes. The precipitation looks pretty weak to me.

It's only just getting started lol. It's about where it pivots also. Still shows it on a collision course with the Midlands.only tomorrow morning will it become clearer

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

It's only just getting started lol. It's about where it pivots also. Still shows it on a collision course with the Midlands.only tomorrow morning will it become clearer

Yup looks further north on euro4!!good stuff!!

[Terminal Moraine]

Average depth here is 3.6cm but  the snow is now very light.

[#windysnow#]

2 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

It's only just getting started lol. It's about where it pivots also. Still shows it on a collision course with the Midlands.only tomorrow morning will it become clearer

I’ve just done my first model review the Arpege 12z which got it bang on today! and it shows Thursday low it getting as north as Nottingham/derby at about 9/10pm it then appears to stall over the midlands until 7/8am as it fizzles out on Friday another system then appears to come up from the SW again getting as far north as derby around 12pm which then stalls again very interesting 

[MattStoke]

ECM is further north than the Euro4 at the same time.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Today went as expected for me, I just felt it wasn’t going to deliver anything so didn’t build myself up. I’m hopeful for better on Thursday but the way this winter has gone so far wouldn’t be surprised if it’s another damp squid 

[MKN]

1 minute ago, #windysnow# said:

I’ve just done my first model review the Arpege 12z which got it bang on today! and it shows Thursday low it getting as north as Nottingham/derby at about 9/10pm it then appears to stall over the midlands until 7/8am as it fizzles out on Friday another system then appears to come up from the SW again getting as far north as derby around 12pm which then stalls again very interesting 

We can hope are you able to post the charts. 

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

ECM is further north than the Euro4 at the same time.

Yep but it's a different shape  imo and will get further north  any way  to far out yet