Midlands Regional Discussion

[Andypvfc]

Afternoon folks. Hope you all had a good Christmas and happy New Year. So not really had much chance look at forthcoming weather predictions, however keeping hearing people mention snow for next Week, so was wondering as to what we can look forward to for the North Staffs area next Week and in Partic Tuesday / Wed?

[cyclonic happiness]

2 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Hi Mark, Just the usual, ‘its just one more run doom team showing themselfs again’ this isn’t directed at you at all, but if you read posters that clearly have intellectual understanding, wisdom and judgement of the output......there would’nt be any doom n gloom in the model thread things are still very rosey for cold and snow.....I’m so, so much looking forward to this weeks wintry weather and what it about to bring us.

Yes, but it is still a bit of a worry that it could change so much in 12 hours. But hopefully the wobbles will wobble back.  as you say the trend is still cold

[Dancerwithwings]

1 minute ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Yes, but it is still a bit of a worry that it could change so much in 12 hours. But hopefully the wobbles will wobble back.  as you say the trend is still cold

There is always uncertainty in any output, but you’ve been around long enough to see things change from a beastly to a limping lamb in just a few runs, but this time there is so much to back this trend up (cold and snow) I mean the SSW and so on, the problem is the models are really struggling with what’s happening in the US regarding this storm that’s just starting to show it’s hand.....for now sit back and enjoy this weeks Rain to Snow event (tues) and then the Showers Weds and you never know what Thursday/Friday may bring us.....a very interesting week ahead, ENJOY  

[cyclonic happiness]

So, now the snow risk is mainly gone from Tuesday, although there is a small chance of a cheshire gap streamer on tuesday night.

Shame because I was really thinking we'd actually get a good frontal snowfall early next week, ho hum!

 

[Dancerwithwings]

6 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

So, now the snow risk is mainly gone from Tuesday, although there is a small chance of a cheshire gap streamer on tuesday night.

Shame because I was really thinking we'd actually get a good frontal snowfall early next week, ho hum!

 

Hmmmm don’t tell anyone

Lets see what the 12z brings us

Edited January 19, 2019 by Dancerwithwings

[cyclonic happiness]

18 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Hmmmm don’t tell anyone

Lets see what the 12z brings us

if it doesn't you owe me a pound  

[PolarWarsaw]

Well, there is NO covering it up. The ECM was on the ball last night and has carried this entire cold spell. We have indeed missed the boat and need to wait for the pattern to recycle - could be a couple of days, could be a couple of weeks. I'm still optimistic though, we will get some sort of snowy spell before winter is out. Though we are starting to get to the point now where we NEED one of these cold spells to actually verify before this winter is tucked into 'one of the biggest let downs in history'. 

For your own sanity though, I'd suggest only taking things as gospel when they get to T72... if you are to take one message alone from this winter...it's not to take days 7+ as anything like gospel. These seasonal models are good to look at...but the chaotic atmosphere continues to make them look stupid, time after time. 

[ChezWeather]

Could be a very interesting Tuesday morning rush hour? 

[Dancerwithwings]

1 hour ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Well, there is NO covering it up. The ECM was on the ball last night and has carried this entire cold spell. We have indeed missed the boat and need to wait for the pattern to recycle - could be a couple of days, could be a couple of weeks. I'm still optimistic though, we will get some sort of snowy spell before winter is out. Though we are starting to get to the point now where we NEED one of these cold spells to actually verify before this winter is tucked into 'one of the biggest let downs in history'. 

For your own sanity though, I'd suggest only taking things as gospel when they get to T72... if you are to take one message alone from this winter...it's not to take days 7+ as anything like gospel. These seasonal models are good to look at...but the chaotic atmosphere continues to make them look stupid, time after time. 

 

Still a long way to go yet to say we've missed the boat, (AGREED 7 days+ don't take a gospel)....but to say ECM was on the ball or even the GFS/UKMO....They are all right or wrong until they verify.

This one run two runs whatever you want to call it, it could easily flip back............At least we're not just watching HP suck over us for weeks on end  

Edit, Looking at the 12z ens (WOW STILL)....methinks you've given up on this so-called up and coming cold spell far too early if you ask me.

Edited January 19, 2019 by Dancerwithwings

[Jason74]

I'd prefer to reserve judgement until we get this weekend out of the way and see what the 12z on Monday brings. 

[Snowyowl9]

  First for everything -10 upper air from the west/NW.

 

[Dancerwithwings]

5 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Hi Mark, Just the usual, ‘its just one more run doom team showing themselfs again’ this isn’t directed at you at all, but if you read posters that clearly have intellectual understanding, wisdom and judgement of the output......there would’nt be any doom n gloom in the model thread things are still very rosey for cold and snow.....I’m so, so much looking forward to this weeks wintry weather and what it about to bring us.

5

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91209-model-output-discussion-cold-proper-on-the-way/?do=findComment&comment=3970425

 

[snowangel32]

Morning all. If they take my Snow symbol away theres going to be a riot lol.

But it will look diffrent I think our Chesire gap streamers might have a say.

[markw2680]

1 hour ago, snowangel32 said:

Morning all. If they take my Snow symbol away theres going to be a riot lol.

But it will look diffrent I think our Chesire gap streamers might have a say.

Yes once we get to a nw airflow we usually do quite well although that won’t show up yet

[MattStoke]

Feeling very confident that I’ll see snow on Tuesday. Not from the front coming through, although some brief back edge is possible, but from showers following.

The air will be more than cold enough by then; circa -7 uppers, dew points around 0 and falling below by evening, 522 dam.

North Westerlies are very good for snow here (Cheshire Gap streamer) but there will also be troughs in the flow that will increase the shower risk more widely, but particularly across England and Wales.

Check out the troughs (black lines) and position of the 528 dam line (dotted line) on the fax charts.

Also check out the GFS precipitation charts for Tuesday. These are low res and so can make showers and snow look more extensive than is actually the case, however, I find that the GFS is better than most models for picking up streamers and showers.

Edited January 20, 2019 by MattStoke

[shaky]

Amazing temp contrast from west to east across the region today!!west midlands above freezing east midlands below!!i got temp of -1 with dew point -2 here and frosty!!east anglia is frigid right now!!some.places at -5!!

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Feeling very confident that I’ll see snow on Tuesday. Not from the front coming through, although some brief back edge is possible, but from showers following.

The air will be more than cold enough by then; circa -7 uppers, dew points around 0 and falling below by evening, 522 dam.

North Westerlies are very good for snow here (Cheshire Gap streamer) but there will also be troughs in the flow that will increase the shower risk more widely.

Is the.snow risk still there for tuesday to thursday on gfs mate

[MattStoke]

29 minutes ago, shaky said:

Is the.snow risk still there for tuesday to thursday on gfs mate

I think the main shower risk is Tuesday afternoon, with the shower risk dying away early Wednesday.

[Snowyowl9]

Showing snow at 9pm tonight on this temps look too high at 5c.

https://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Last 2 days just murky, mucky and foggy and cold.

Edited January 20, 2019 by Snowyowl9

[MattStoke]

Automated forecasts beginning to pick up on the risk. They’re not very accurate though, especially when it comes to showers.

[markw2680]

I’m thinking there could well be a good chance of snow here in the midlands in the next few days, nw winds are a very good direction for us from previous experience. I do feel if your above around 200m you may well get a surprise or 2. Even below 200m may see some snow but obviously not as much. We will see....

[Dancerwithwings]

23 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I’m thinking there could well be a good chance of snow here in the midlands in the next few days, nw winds are a very good direction for us from previous experience. I do feel if your above around 200m you may well get a surprise or 2. Even below 200m may see some snow but obviously not as much. We will see....

Hope so, NMM hi res model almost in range now, also a fairly cold week ahead....can't mention the models atm, except they are looking far more promising that yesterday's saga. 

[MattStoke]

Tomorrow is now into the range of the Euro4 model. Looks good for some of us.

[northwestsnow]

15 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Tomorrow is now into the range of the Euro4 model. Looks good for some of us.

euro4 picking up a signal for a cheshire gap streamer? i would suggest it is..

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

euro4 picking up a signal for a cheshire gap streamer? i would suggest it is..

Yep, as the GFS has done for days. I normally go by the GFS for streamers/showers from a few days out. Even though it’s accumulation charts are rubbish. Then the Euro4 at close range. 

People saying ‘hills/high ground only’. Can’t tell you the number of times I’ve heard that in this setup only for Stoke to get clobbered.