Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Turnedoutniceagain

Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018/19

Recommended Posts

FWIW it looks more like hailstones, temperatures were in the mid-teens in sunshine at the Izana observatory about a thousand metres lower down and there were reports of hail showers (granizo). Perhaps not as interesting as first appeared.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice to see early winter pictures from Spitzbergen with freezing temps and snow cover taking a hold.

C

zeppCam2.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Snow is starting to appear in Scandinavia.

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2018/ims2018274_asiaeurope.gif

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just for interest's sake, is there any data out there that suggest a correlation between NH snow-/ice-cover, on November 30, and the subsequent winter? After all, snow that accumulates during October has a good while in which to disappear...❄️

Edited by Ed Stone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know this is a forecast, and it's for 11 days off, but Meteo's record on snow forecasting is not too shabby in my experience. They are forecasting snow for the Texas panhandle for the weekend after next.  It might be made a bit more likely since they are still forecasting snow for Arizona and New Mexico in a more visible 5 days. A lot of snow usually has to fall south of the Canadian border to reach these states. I note their forecasts also suggest Russia is getting its act in gear in a few days. This is starting to look like a very interesting northern hemispere winter developing, what with a few early flurries on Scottish mountains as well. Anyone bet on a white UK Christmas yet? Odds are dropping

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=78&mode=16&carte=1

https://www.weather.gov/ama/snow_climo

 

I know this is probably driven by recent media scaremongering, but 6/4 at Coral for the coldest recorded winter?

https://www.heart.co.uk/news/weather/white-christmas-2018-snow-weather-prediction/

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Aleman said:

I know this is a forecast, and it's for 11 days off, but Meteo's record on snow forecasting is not too shabby in my experience. They are forecasting snow for the Texas panhandle for the weekend after next.  It might be made a bit more likely since they are still forecasting snow for Arizona and New Mexico in a more visible 5 days. A lot of snow usually has to fall south of the Canadian border to reach these states. I note their forecasts also suggest Russia is getting its act in gear in a few days. This is starting to look like a very interesting northern hemispere winter developing, what with a few early flurries on Scottish mountains as well. Anyone bet on a white UK Christmas yet? Odds are dropping

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=78&mode=16&carte=1

https://www.weather.gov/ama/snow_climo

 

I know this is probably driven by recent media scaremongering, but 6/4 at Coral for the coldest recorded winter?

https://www.heart.co.uk/news/weather/white-christmas-2018-snow-weather-prediction/

 

 

 

 

Meteociel doesn't forecasting anything, it just presents the output from various NWP models. The link is just showing the output from the latest GFS run which is operated by NCEP in the US.

6/4 for the coldest winter on record is ludicrously short. 500 to 1 would be closer. The whole article is a joke. If El Nino caused cold winters in the UK, we'd be buried every few years.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, Yarmy said:

Meteociel doesn't forecasting anything, it just presents the output from various NWP models. The link is just showing the output from the latest GFS run which is operated by NCEP in the US.

6/4 for the coldest winter on record is ludicrously short. 500 to 1 would be closer. The whole article is a joke. If El Nino caused cold winters in the UK, we'd be buried every few years.

 

Assuming winter CET is distributed normally (it's not) then the coldest winter 1684 with a standard deviation of over 3.5 has a less than 1 in 2149 chance of occurring. The 3rd coldest 1962/3 is 3SD which has a chance of 1 in 370.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Assuming winter CET is distributed normally (it's not) then the coldest winter 1684 with a standard deviation of over 3.5 has a less than 1 in 2149 chance of occurring. The 3rd coldest 1962/3 is 3SD which has a chance of 1 in 370.

One of those might be the odds against Spurs beating Barca, tonight?:help:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

been listen to this guy hes  saying the uk can expect the worst  winter  on record!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, tinybill said:

been listen to this guy hes  saying the uk can expect the worst  winter  on record!!

Is he a mate of Nathan Rao from the Express?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, tinybill said:

been listen to this guy hes  saying the uk can expect the worst  winter  on record!!

Everybody is entitled to their own opinion or produce their own forecast but watched some of this and struck me as not going into anything in detail...actually spoke to him on you tube and his reasoning for a very cold UK winter coming up and said 'when the NE States have a cold winter the UK generally does to'...well of recent years with the warm eastern seaboard the opposite has occurred (remember 2013/14 winter with the raging Polar Vortex? and severe weather over Canada/NE States, was it cold here?...nope, flooding and very mild what I remember). So basically binned what he said...

Edited by Froze were the Days

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Everybody is entitled to their own opinion or produce their own forecast but watched some of this and struck me as not going into anything in detail...actually spoke to him on you tube and his reasoning for a very cold UK winter coming up and said 'when the NE States have a cold winter the UK generally does to'...well of recent years with the warm eastern seaboard the opposite has occurred (remember 2013/14 winter with the raging Polar Vortex? and severe weather over Canada/NE States, was it cold here?...nope, flooding and very mild what I remember). So basically binned what he said...

Cold in the US east (+pna) basically polarizes our fortunes. If we see a +AO then we just get a horror show because the gradient is enhanced however if we get a -AO then a +pna having the jet leave the us further south than normal can be of benefit.

There is a third Dec 15, Feb 98 scenario where the sub-tropical jet is so strong that it pushes up a Euro ridge.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a few UK locations record their first air frost of the autumn today, so does Wrangel Island in the eastern Arctic ocean. Remarkable as the September average minimum is -1.7°C max 1.8°C and October min -8.4°C max -4.1°C. The concept of first frost is normally meaningless as they occur all year. As well as having the warmest September day (12.7°C) it has been the warmest September by an absolute country mile, ave max 7.03°C min 3.76°C.

Edited by Interitus

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Snow has increased some places and in other places decreased little.

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2018/ims2018279_asiaeurope.gif

Edited by Katrine Basso
Changed sentence

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Our first ice here. We had 2-3mm in an upturned lid we leave down for the birds after widespread frost in the Vale of York.

https://eldoradoweather.com/climate/world-extremes/world-temp-rainfall-extremes.php?extremes=United%2BK

Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 10/07/2018 at 09:00 UTC
No. Location Station ID Amount
1 Aboyne (United Kingdom) 03080 -4.3°C
2 Redesdale (United Kingdom) 03230 -3.6°C
3 Topcliffe (United Kingdom) 03265 -2.9°C
4 Eskdalemuir (United Kingdom) 03162 -2.6°C
5 Cairngorm (United Kingdom) 03065 -2.3°C
6 Shap (United Kingdom) 03225 -2°C
7 Rostherne No 2 (United Kingdom) 03351 -1.7°C
8 Pershore (United Kingdom) 03529 -1.6°C
9 Sennybridge (United Kingdom) 03507 -1.2°C
10 West Freugh (United Kingdom) 03132 -1.1°C
11 Bala (United Kingdom) 03409 -1°C
12 Benson (United Kingdom) 03658 -1°C
13 Leeming (United Kingdom) 03257 -0.7°C
14 Trawscoed (United Kingdom) 03503 -0.7°C
15 Aberdeen / Dyce (United Kingdom) 03091 -0.6°C
Script courtesy of  Michael Holden of Relay Weather. Data courtesy of Ogimet

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 29/09/2018 at 14:09, Interitus said:

FWIW it looks more like hailstones, temperatures were in the mid-teens in sunshine at the Izana observatory about a thousand metres lower down and there were reports of hail showers (granizo). Perhaps not as interesting as first appeared.

 

Funny that ,I've stood there lol some hail shower 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...