Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018/19

[Aleman]

Meteo forecasting widespread snow across Europe for the weekend after next and the snow down the UK west coast to Devon is there again. It's back on - let's see if it holds longer than 6 hours this time!

[Aleman]

Snow confirmed in NE Texas though it does not look like much settled. Colorado had several inches in places.

http://www.weathernationtv.com/news/early-season-snowfall-on-sunday/

There has been suggestions it might have snowed in Mexico around Chihuahua. The temperatures in that area are crackers. El Paso has a record low of 61F for Oct 15th. Predictions are for that to be smashed, with a  HIGH of 51F today and low around 42F. It's currently 10C and falling.

https://weatheroptics.net/highly-unusual-pattern-to-bring-record-october-cold-snow-and-ice-to-us-southwest-and-beyond/

 

 

 

 

 

 

[summer blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Aleman said:

Snow confirmed in NE Texas though it does not look like much settled. Colorado had several inches in places.

http://www.weathernationtv.com/news/early-season-snowfall-on-sunday/

There has been suggestions it might have snowed in Mexico around Chihuahua. The temperatures in that area are crackers. El Paso has a record low of 61F for Oct 15th. Predictions are for that to be smashed, with a  HIGH of 51F today and low around 42F. It's currently 10C and falling.

https://weatheroptics.net/highly-unusual-pattern-to-bring-record-october-cold-snow-and-ice-to-us-southwest-and-beyond/

 

 

 

 

 

 

Canada seeing snowfall at a record rolling pace means abnormally cold air to tap into. 

[Aleman]

I made a mistake earlier. The 61F record low for El Paso was the lowest HIGH temperature for that date - not the lowest LOW. (I thought 61F seemed high for a low so checked up elsewhere and the 61F was the lowest ever high of Oct 15th 1970. The low for this date is 37F in 1997.) It still means El Paso is on course to comfortably break the record for this date by about 10F if it hits its predicted high this afternoon today of only 50 or 51F.  Some might still describe beating a record by 10F/6C as smashing it but please accept my apologies as it is not in yet and I was suggesting a slightly different record with a bigger beat. I'll try confirm the correct new record when the day is done.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Further ice build up along Greenland's eastern coast.

[Katrine Basso]

More increases of snow and ice.  Scandinavia snow has still not returned, hopefully that will change soon.

[Aleman]

There were reports of numerous significant temperature and snow records expected before the US cold front went through but I'm having a hard time find them after the fact. El Paso's Oct 15th afternoon high was recorded as 8C/46F - 17F below the previous 1970 record that date - BUT it started the 24 hour date period with 53F at midnight before quickly dropping until dawn and barely rising after. That means the new record is 8F lower than the old one, even if the rest of the day was probably much colder. Despite the still considerable reduction, I can find no report to confirm. There were odd records confirmed in media here and there elsewhere but I can find no reports of how much records were broken by. One or two websites clearly listed old records but denied me access under the new cookies/privacy rules/whatever it is that prevents foreign access to numerous US media sites.

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-10-15-largest-middle-october-snow-cover-13-years-north-america

Parts of the central United States saw record-breaking cold and snow Sunday and Monday.

On Sunday, Kansas City and Wichita both had their earliest measurable snow in records dating to the late 1800s. Daily record low temperatures were set Monday morning in Denver (18 degrees) and Dallas-Fort Worth (41 degrees).

 

 

Edited October 18, 2018 by Aleman

[Katrine Basso]

Some increases of snow while other places have lost snow cover.

[Interitus]

On 17/10/2018 at 06:06, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Further ice build up along Greenland's eastern coast.

While some of this is caused by freezing, there was a surge in Fram Strait ice export at the end of September and early October so whether this is good is debatable.

Anyway this is just an excuse to post this pic of a von Karman vortex cloud sheet from Jan Mayen island (70°N) yesterday -

source: https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2018-10-18-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=1132948.586870892,-1786139.5937159387,1482644.586870892,-1625883.5937159387

Despite the (cyclonic) northerly wind flow causing this, the temperatures reached 7.3°C, the snow visible on the island is on the 7740 ft Beerenberg mountain, the world's most northerly non-submarine volcano.

[Aleman]

I'm not meaning to bang on about Texas but my sister has just told me on the phone that the record-breaking cold air (and snow) that has come down from Canada has battled with moist air from the still very warm Gulf of Mexico and produced an exceptional level of rain in central Texas where it wasn't cold enough to snow. The week's total is expected to reach 20 inches. She abandoned home and went to stay at her daughter's on higher ground. The area she lives in has lots of lakeside residences and lake levels have risen to near-record levels not seen for 80 years after they dried up a lot through the hot first decade of this millenium. (Same as the Great Lakes.) The cooler years they've had since have often turned ground boggy and flushed out snakes and scorpions. Armadillos and raccoons can be troublesome as well when they hunt for food. Local dirt roads have become impassable and some bridges have been closed after a major one was washed away. Ironically, she was going to pick up a 4x4 truck, with tow line, this week to manage wet weather and bad roads better but she could not pick it up due to the flooding! They had a delivery truck badly stuck in mud on her land last year where vehicles trying to rescue it got stuck too and they had a messy job getting them all out. That unbroken long line of rain between very cold arctic air and warm moist gulf air is now crossing the North Atlantic and being stretched thinner and twisted a bit but it looks like Scotland might still get a taste of it now and then over the next 7-10 days.

 

They seem to have been slow to open floodgates to protect communities downstream and flooded them upstream instead

https://www.today.com/video/texas-flooding-18-counties-now-under-state-of-emergency-1347129411946?v=raila&

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-flooding-catches-homeowners-off-guard-kingsland/

 

 

[Katrine Basso]

Snow is slowly spreading into East Europe.

[Aleman]

The snow modelled for next weekend has edged back west again and it looks like Scottish Highlands might be on for white stuff on Friday - besides higher parts of central and eastern Europe. That's only 6 days out so we must be reaching the point where locals might want to take note. Sleety Halloween in store for the North, perhaps?

[Aleman]

Hudson Bay has started freezing up a couple of weeks early. Not really suprising considering the early winter Canada has had but it might be remembered that it finished melting late and water temperatures have remained mostly cold all summer

https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS31SD/20181019180000_WIS31SD_0010283453.pdf

On the warm side of the Arctic, the Northern Sea Route/ Northeast Passage has closed after 8-9 weeks open. I'm not sure how that compares historically. Last year it opened for about 5-6 weeks.

 

 

[Froze were the Days]

3 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

Snow is slowly spreading into East Europe.

really!?!...Moscow yesterday was 16c so not sure how that was the case, at least there looks like some increases now over eastern Siberia.

[Midlands Ice Age]

15 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

really!?!...Moscow yesterday was 16c so not sure how that was the case, at least there looks like some increases now over eastern Siberia.

Correct..

 Of more interest though is the ice formation in the ESS, Laptev and even some in Kara. 

If the map above is zoomed it shows quite a lot of ice along the Russian coast, and the ESS sea ice is expanding Southwards and Eastwards.

I guess this is to be expected when the season is about 2 weeks late.

MIA

[Interitus]

1 hour ago, Aleman said:

On the warm side of the Arctic, the Northern Sea Route/ Northeast Passage has closed after 8-9 weeks open.

Nearly but not quite, this image shows the narrowest part near the Medvezhyi Islands, north of the Kolyma river delta between Wrangel island and the New Siberian islands. Still open, but the growth of the land fast ice has begun -

source: https://www.polarview.aq/

38 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

really!?!...Moscow yesterday was 16c so not sure how that was the case, at least there looks like some increases now over eastern Siberia.

Yes, tbh snow cover is a poor proxy for building cold as shown by today's chart from the Climate Reanalyzer site, almost all of Eurasia and the Arctic are abnormally warm at the moment -

Edited October 20, 2018 by Interitus

[Midlands Ice Age]

47 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Nearly but not quite, this image shows the narrowest part near the Medvezhyi Islands, north of the Kolyma river delta between Wrangel island and the New Siberian islands. Still open, but the growth of the land fast ice has begun -

source: https://www.polarview.aq/

Yes, tbh snow cover is a poor proxy for building cold as shown by today's chart from the Climate Reanalyzer site, almost all of Eurasia and the Arctic are abnormally warm at the moment -

Does this mean what you think?

It is better to look at the actual temperatures, rather than anonalies..

 

Average 2M temperatures on the same chart -

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2

 

With a minimum of -

 https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2min

With sunlight now at a premium in the area,  it means most of the time it is around -10C, since I make the above  between -5C and -10C widely in the ESS region. .With the SST's being below zero in the region now, freezing will commence quite rapidily. now.

At this time of year it is still cold enough to start the re-freeze,

Your ice map above shows a very narrow gap, I would not be too keen to take a ship through it now, without an ice breaker in front of me!!!

MIA. .

[Interitus]

2 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Does this mean what you think?

It is better to look at the actual temperatures, rather than anonalies..

 

Average 2M temperatures on the same chart -

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2

 

With a minimum of -

 https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2min

With sunlight now at a premium in the area,  it means most of the time it is around -10C, since I make the above  between -5C and -10C widely in the ESS region. .With the SST's being below zero in the region now, freezing will commence quite rapidily. now.

At this time of year it is still cold enough to start the re-freeze,

Your ice map above shows a very narrow gap, I would not be too keen to take a ship through it now, without an ice breaker in front of me!!!

MIA. .

It meant exactly what it stated, it is much warmer than average, and as also acknowledged, the fast ice was forming along the coast. Sure, temperatures are obviously low enough for this to happen but much slower than normal and the anomalies show the real perspective - so here's another one, in accordance with the temperatures, as of yesterday (19/10) the NSIDC daily sea-ice extent was the lowest on record (still 3rd with JAXA but so close to be pretty negligible).

Oh, the gap between the ice-fronts is around 30+ miles - the clear channel between the largest island and the pair to the west in the satellite image is 14 miles.

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 minutes ago, Interitus said:

It meant exactly what it stated, it is much warmer than average, and as also acknowledged, the fast ice was forming along the coast. Sure, temperatures are obviously low enough for this to happen but much slower than normal and the anomalies show the real perspective - so here's another one, in accordance with the temperatures, as of yesterday (19/10) the NSIDC daily sea-ice extent was the lowest on record (still 3rd with JAXA but so close to be pretty negligible).

Oh, the gap between the ice-fronts is around 30+ miles - the clear channel between the largest island and the pair to the west in the satellite image is 14 miles.

Interitus ...

The point  I was making is that the ice is freezing fast now, despite the anomaly.

You would have made a risky sailor.

The Russian ice service shows a lot more ice in this area (as does Maisie), Could it be a carbon copy of the problems in the North West Passage at the end of August?

Everyone knows that the NSIDC are very poor in measuring 'coastal' ice. That is the reason why 'Maisie' was written.

This is the time of year, with ice growing rapidly around the , that NSIDC is at its most vulnerable. It changes its masks teice a month to try and make up fo rits lack of accuracy.

Meanwhile Maise has just update again just now with another sizeable increase in all sea areas. It also rose to 4th lowest yesterday and has cemented that position today.

MIA

[Aleman]

Interitus - From sailing blogs, I understood some forming new ice - pancake, grease, frazil, slush and nilas - does not show up on satellite images very well before more conventional ice takes its place and can be measured, hence I quoted a not too accurate range of 8 to 9 weeks open. I zoomed in on your image and it looks like ice goes all the way across at 160E, though it does not show well when zoomed out.

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

42 minutes ago, Aleman said:

Interitus - From sailing blogs, I understood some forming new ice - pancake, grease, frazil, slush and nilas - does not show up on satellite images very well before more conventional ice takes its place and can be measured, hence I quoted a not too accurate range of 8 to 9 weeks open. I zoomed in on your image and it looks like ice goes all the way across at 160E, though it does not show well when zoomed out.

 

 

I think that Interitus is on to a loser here.

The real connection has been made about 300 miles east of Wrangle Island.

See a Zoomed Maisie below.

http://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/latest/4km/masie_all_r00_4km.png

The main ESS ice sheet has actually bridged over to the coastal ice.

Will it expand from there?

MIA

[Aleman]

Ice can be seen all over now. The Northern Sea Route has clearly closed to normal vessels and has probably been so for a few days to a week so I still believe my statement that it has been open 8-9 weeks this year is about right.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2018-10-21-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-1069300.124107488,1769053.629889108,-719604.124107488,1936477.629889108

 

[Katrine Basso]

Here is the latest snow and ice chart.

[Aleman]

Some earlier years at this date:

Edited October 21, 2018 by Aleman

[summer blizzard]

Extend second to last since 2009..

But the SAI (gradient) is actually not that bad thanks to our low start (above 2011, 2017) and that's what is linked to the AO (in theory).