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Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018/19


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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

Someone skiing this morning at Cairngorm, Scotland.

 

76A717EA-AC06-4233-BB9F-87E4D4EF9106.jpeg

Ok not the longest run in the world but it’s a start.

Edited by Norrance
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

I must say I would not be surprised if by the end of September if snowfall anomolies across Siberia are below average because the outlook look way above average temperature wise and perhaps dry with large areas of high pressure dominating. 

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
22 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

I must say I would not be surprised if by the end of September if snowfall anomolies across Siberia are below average because the outlook look way above average temperature wise and perhaps dry with large areas of high pressure dominating. 

Actually, as of now, the anomaly is slightly positive for all areas-

812048525_Screenshot_20180922-113053_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.cde9d287bb1e7c7ac9ff85913f5fa371.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

Further to a question about the Northwest Passage about a month ago from summer blizzard, I have more news. Although, I suspect most sailors would still describe the NWP as being closed all summer and the Canadian Coast Guard asked pleasure vessels to stay clear, it turns out two have gone through after difficulties. The THOR took about 26 days to get through a 200 mile ice blockage southwest of Bellot Straight during which it was trapped in a bay for several days on its westerly journey.

http://arcticnorthwestpassage.blogspot.com/2018/09/sv-thor-de-arrives-tuktoyaktuk-from.html?view=sidebar

The INFINITY took over 2 months to sail east through the NWP, a journey that would take 2 weeks when clear. It was held up considerably by ice blockages on the Alaskan Coast, Amundsen Gulf and also on the approach to Bellot Straight.

http://arcticnorthwestpassage.blogspot.com/2018/09/sv-infinity-achieves-only-east-passage.html?view=sidebar

If both these vessels got through without icebreaker assistance (as sometimes happens on the quiet), then they have been both tenacious and lucky. Vessels that aborted had difficulties with ice after turning around. At least one aborting vessel had to be helped out by an icebreaker to get back. ( I don't recall which.)

http://arcticnorthwestpassage.blogspot.com/2018/09/sv-crystal-trapped-by-prince-regent.html?view=sidebar

The ANAHITA was sunk this summer in the Bellot Straight in generally less concentrated ice conditions than the THOR dealth with.

http://arcticnorthwestpassage.blogspot.com/2018/09/icebreaker-ccgs-henry-larsens.html?view=sidebar

The solar-powered ICADE was unceremoniously dumped on an isolated beach by wind and swell, meaning the solo sailor was very lucky to meet a scientific ground party and not get eaten.

http://arcticnorthwestpassage.blogspot.com/2018/09/mv-icade-unpredictability-of-northwest.html?view=sidebar

The academic research icebreaker AKADEMIC IOFFE was forced by ice to detour and then grounded on an uncharted shoal, forcing evacuation of over 150 crew and passengers and emergency welding in frequently subzero conditions so it could turn back. I read somewhere that bilge pumping during repairs caused some environmental pollution, although it was said to be limited.

http://arcticnorthwestpassage.blogspot.com/2018/08/akademik-ioffe-passengers-transferred.html?view=sidebar

This is why I follow NWP sailing. It's dramatic and a bit mad. People take years to plan and don't want to give up after investing all that effort. Some give up when common sense would indicate. Others don't.  Occasionally, some out and out nutcases with hardly any of the right experience have a go. They should be noting that some captains with decades of Arctic sailing experience still get into trouble. The Canadian Coast Guard have enough on worrying about supply ships and find the antics of pleasure vessels a bit frustrating at times, though don't criticise too much publicly, like most rescue services.

 

 

 

Edited by Aleman
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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL

Yakutsk in Siberia seeing a nice decrease in temps as we go into 0ctober - struggling to get above freezing towards the end of the run. Then it should dip much further as we go even more into the new month.

2102518258_chart(4).thumb.jpeg.b1b1e36136a5d32e153fdf10c3066fd9.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic

It seems that Arctic will be flooded with extremely warm air next week. We will probably see huge gains in snow over Canada but ice will struggle. 

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
10 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Latest output

cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

Look at the 'orrible white blob in Alberta exactly where i live :wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

cheek_monkey - has most of yours melted? I can't see much on climatereanalyzer - but it shows new snow for Montana, Wyoming, Scandinavia,  and Ukraine/Romania, so early wintery weather seems to be marching on nicely in several places. Also, there was a report of 4 feet of snow in northern India somewhere. I can't find that but there has clearly been heavy snow as indicated by the Xinhua link below.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#seaice-snowc-topo

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-09/25/c_137491738.htm

 

 

Edited by Aleman
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
1 hour ago, Yarmy said:

Anyone want a fix?

http://longyearbyen.kystnor.no

❄️❄️❄️

nope had enough already..just need to look out my window recently..thankfully its gone now 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

High pressure in Alaska continues to pump a lot of warmth into the Arctic, no wonder there is no meaningful refreeze so far and this pattern is set to persist.

If anything, Typhoon Tremi is expected to move north over Japan and continue its journey northwards (as a storm system) bringing more warmth into the Arctic.

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

Sea ice has jumped in the last couple of weeks across northern Canada and is above average for the date for the first time in a decade. The last time it was this icy for the time of year was 2004 and, before, that 1996.

 

This year:

https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCSWCTWA/20180924180000_CVCSWCTWA_0010248250.pdf

https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCSWCTEA/20180924180000_CVCSWCTEA_0010248245.pdf

And the last 4 decades at this at this date:

https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHDCTWA/20180924180000_CVCHDCTWA_0010248247.pdf

https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHDCTEA/20180924180000_CVCHDCTEA_0010248243.pdf

It's tempting to say its just ice pack movements to that side from Russia but there has also been a trend of increasing ice in Hudson Bay, Eastern Canada and the Great Lakes in recent years as well, so it might not just be Canadian Arctic. Also, the Baltic Sea has seen ice moving back closer to average as well. Blips  - or maybe late 70s hot dry summers and cold snowy winters making a come-back (depending where you live)?

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Interesting to see the sea ice so above the last 10 years, I have said every year that the ice is a better indicator than the snow. The green can turn white overnight, but building the ice up strong seems to have been an issue for the last few winters.

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

2-6 inches in Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota and even a touch in Nebraska. 3rd snow into the US even though we've not got to October yet.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#seaice-snowc-toposu

Meteo's global snow forecasts have lots to come in the next two weeks including snow to low levels across northern Scotland at the end of next week. Also watch for California, Great Lakes, North Korea, Balkans and South of France/Pyrenees.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=16&ech=204&carte=1

 

 

Edited by Aleman
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
1 hour ago, throwoff said:

Interesting to see the sea ice so above the last 10 years, I have said every year that the ice is a better indicator than the snow. The green can turn white overnight, but building the ice up strong seems to have been an issue for the last few winters.

With all due respect you cant be more wrong, we are down to 3rd lowest on record now, any build up of the PV has been limited hence the late minimum and slow growth and to be honest for Arctic ice the forecast is disastorous really with a massive ridge with lots of warm air at upper levels in particular is about to pour in from the Pacific side and this pattern looks to be set in at least for 7 days. Cant emphasize how alarming yet extraordinary the charts are for the poles, i havant seen anything like it and in my eyes Siberia still looks well above average also so slow snow cover will continue here whilst the PV still carries on around Canada. 

Put in some perspective just how extraordinary the charts are,  upper air temps are forecast to be higher than they have been during parts of July over the Arctic. I be amazed if sea ice does not head towards record lows by early yo mid October.

 

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Expect a little bit of an uptick in the snow cover chart over eastern Siberia. The snowfalls have been mostly over high ground so far, but in the last couple of days low pressure to the north of the sea of Okhotsk is producing quite widespread snow inland (still more to higher ground at this stage - Delyankir 22cm at 802m asl).

After a couple of dustings, Ojmjakon (745m asl) reported 9cm of snow at 21:00 yesterday (6am today their time), looks like this may now last the winter. Extremely mild air flooding into the eastern arctic in the next few days isn't expected to reach this far south and the average date of continuous snow reporting (1999-2013) was 3rd October, ranging from Sept 17th in 2012 to Oct 20th in 2003.

As the nights are now longer than the days the net radiation loss quickly picks up leading to the formation of a deep inversion and surface high pressure. This lead to the rival cold pole capital the lower altitude Verhojansk (137m asl) not receiving a permanent snow cover til 2nd November 2008 compared to their average date of October 8th though temperatures had already fallen as low as -27.7°C before the end of October (with 1cm of snow).

Edited by Interitus
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