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Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018/19


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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
On 22/07/2019 at 10:20, karyo said:

Arctic sea ice extent is at record low sadly! https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Record breaking high temperatures, record breaking low sea ice extent.  All rather grim don’t you think?!  Eye opener 2019 and we still have nearly half the year to go!  I for one will not getting excited about cold weather prospects this autumn, sadly.  Seems little point now......

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

The Northern Route opened about a week ago. The Northwest Passage looks like it should open in a week or two to non-ice class vessels, though recent very warm weather there is moving on. The first significant snows of the season are expected to come through from Alaska early next week so the melt rate which is already slowing sharply could grind to a halt next week.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=16&ech=204&carte=1

FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_201908

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
10 hours ago, Aleman said:

The Northern Route opened about a week ago. The Northwest Passage looks like it should open in a week or two to non-ice class vessels, though recent very warm weather there is moving on. The first significant snows of the season are expected to come through from Alaska early next week so the melt rate which is already slowing sharply could grind to a halt next week.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=16&ech=204&carte=1

FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_201908

 

 

Not so sure they will grind to a halt. Whilst Alaska May get snow, there looks to be a surge of warmth forecast for the Laptev and East Siberian Sea regions again, which could melt out quite a bit of that already very thin ice around that region. Early cold will probably not have that much of an impact initially on the warmer than average open water up there around Alaska. 

It will probably get worse still before it gets better, which probably won’t be until mid September. 

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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters/Hot summers
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport
11 hours ago, Aleman said:

The Northern Route opened about a week ago. The Northwest Passage looks like it should open in a week or two to non-ice class vessels, though recent very warm weather there is moving on. The first significant snows of the season are expected to come through from Alaska early next week so the melt rate which is already slowing sharply could grind to a halt next week.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=16&ech=204&carte=1

FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_201908

 

 

Thanks for your updates on this thread Aleman, it’s much appreciated!

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire
1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Not so sure they will grind to a halt. Whilst Alaska May get snow, there looks to be a surge of warmth forecast for the Laptev and East Siberian Sea regions again, which could melt out quite a bit of that already very thin ice around that region. Early cold will probably not have that much of an impact initially on the warmer than average open water up there around Alaska. 

It will probably get worse still before it gets better, which probably won’t be until mid September. 

Sorry. Perhaps that was slightly ambiguous. I was referring to the colder weather and snow in the Northwest Passage slowing melt there next week. I was not talking about the wider Arctic.

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

Been a few limited pixels appeared in Siberia and down the Rockies but nothing significant enough to bother posting images. The main story is still Arctic sea ice running at or near record lows. It looks like there will be media stories about the Northwest Passage opening this year since the plug of thick ice that was there continues to be eliminated rapidly by warm weather and warm sea temperatures and enough wind to make for a slight swell.  Rapid recent melt can be seen here:

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/ice-forecasts-observations/latest-conditions/concentration-map-last-10-days.html

A prediction of cold weather next week has moderated to about average, so I expect the NWP will open in about a week, and continue to see some melting for a couple of weeks. That should give a relatively risk-free shot at passage for non-ice class vessels for a few weeks and a half-dozen already look to be queueing up to the East. They might have a choice of routes since it's looking quite likely that more than just one of the 7 NWP routes will open. There remains a forecasts of significant snow for the northern Canadian coast and islands about 6 days out but it's likely to be fleeting in the scheme of things, though it's interesting that big falls last winter, late falls this spring, and some early dustings for the next season mean Northern Hemisphere snow ran higher than average again last winter and continues to do so. Low Arctic sea ice and high N.H. snow levels are graphed here (you may have to squint at the snow maps that have moved on to the next winter cycle):

http://globalcryospherewatch.org/satellites/trackers.html

 

 

Edited by Aleman
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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

We're nearly at the low for Arctic Sea ice and melt has slowed considerably. We've reached the point where ice increases in middle but still decreases at most of the periphery, so that only slight decreases are seen overall, and local weather makes significant differences. I thought I'd post images for yesterday and 3 days prior. My special interest is the Northwest Passage. It looked likely to open soon a few days ago but the remaining blockage there looks to have increased slightly in the all important middle bit,despite significant reduction at the western end/ Beaufort Sea, so opening still looks distinctly possible but very weather dependent.

ims2019219_alaska.gifims2019222_alaska.gif

Not showing yet above is a bit of new snow on the Northern Slope of Alaska. It is the beginning of quite a lot of wintery weather forecast for Alaska and NW Canada this week as temperatures drop back from very warm to near average. Winter has woken from its slumber and is having a yawn and stretch before it decides whether or not to get out of bed.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#seaice-snowc-topo

Edited by Aleman
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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire
Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

First block of snow appeared in Siberia over the last few days:

ims2019228_alaska.gif

 

The snow predicted for Alaskan North slope, Yukon and Northwest Territories has landed a day early. There's even a tiny spot on the Rockies in Montana to give the US its first snow.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#seaice-snowc-topo

 

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire
Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

Picture from Montana. Very unusual early snow. 17th August.

7FF0CCEB-E184-4077-BCA2-5EEB64EDE87C.jpeg

Edited by Norrance
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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

Snow not unusual in Yukon and NW Territories this time of year but there's quite a lot and temps are down to -5C. Must be tough if you're on a late summer camping holiday!

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#seaice-snowc-topo

Will it stay or melt though?

There looks to be a few tiny white bits on Norwegian mountains?

Edited by Aleman
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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire
Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

Sunday's big early snowfall on NIC now (3-day moving average?):

ims2019230_alaska.gif

You can also see the sea ice is low - running at around 2nd lowest in the satellite era for extent and 4th lowest for volume.

The Northwest Passage is still not quite open yet to non-ice class vessels even though a few pleasure craft are in there playing hide and seek with the ice (and ice-breakers?) and slowly moving through. The most open route is down the left hand side of the following CSIS image. Melting has slowed right down and we have reached the time of year where it blows around as much as melts, but it looks like this route will open and possible a couple of others.

https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS153CT/20190818124100_WIS153CT_0010723554.pdf

Edited by Aleman
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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

The Northwest Passage must have opened properly overnight. There are 9 pleasure craft that have gone through after a few icebreakers and supply ships. It's like Piccadilly Circus! It's a lot warmer hugging the mainland coast to the south so ice (drifting) there will continue to melt but an idea of weather to the north can be given by Resolute's 1C and fog at 11am and snow and subzero temperatures further north still. So the ice probably already starting to thicken at the northernmost islands as southern channels clear further.

Https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-96.1/centery:76.7/zoom:4

Https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS138CT/20190819234700_WIS138CT_0010725705.pdf

Interesting NWP current sailing blog. Some nice pics.

Http://www.syrosehearty.com/captains-blog

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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters/Hot summers
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport

Must be time to start a new thread for this one?

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
On 20/08/2019 at 17:19, Aleman said:

 

Interesting NWP current sailing blog. Some nice pics.

Http://www.syrosehearty.com/captains-blog

Thanks for that, very interesting read (esp the latest one on the Greenland ice sheet) and some stunning pics. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire
On 20/08/2019 at 20:40, Bobafet said:

Must be time to start a new thread for this one?

When does one winter end and another start if you specify snow and ice in the Nothern Hemisphere? Sea ice is still decreasing in extent and flattish in volume but snow has started settling. (I note average Arctic daily temperature dipped below zero a couple of days ago, according to DMI. )Anyway, I've started posting on the new thread for 2019/20.

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