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UK first ground and air frost watch season 2018-2019


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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and/or snow in Winter and Thunderstorms any time of the year.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl
    1 hour ago, hillbilly said:

    Amazing,just over the hill from here but only made 4 deg here!

     

    Benson down south recorded -0.6C. We have such an incredible variance of temperatures on a relatively small island.

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    I've started this thread a bit earlier than usual, namely due to the forecasted chilly nights expected Friday and Saturday with an outside chance of ground frosts in frost prone spots, who knows Highl

    http://www.markvoganweather.com/2017/09/17/visit-to-katesbridge-weather-station-northern-irelands-icebox/

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

    First ground frost 2012 September 22nd at 4.4c.

    So needs to get lower than that tonight challenge on,5.1c last night.

    Rmgfs154.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

    Interitus - thanks for that. Does comparing a single day paint the whole picture, though?

    Here's the month of September 2015 and the September 2018 we've had so far.  I've put the latest week in, as well. The cold to our west seems to have deepened a touch maybe (snow expected in the US next week, too), not that it means our predominant weather must come from that direction. I just suspect it increases the odds of some unusual wintery weather in weeks ahead. After that, who knows? All, change maybe.

    ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_092015.pngncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.pngncep_cfsr_globe_t2m_week_anom.png

     

    Edited by Aleman
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Could see first ground frost of the autumn here tonight.

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    We got down to 2.1c yesterday morning. 

    Leaving the house today at 6am and it was 1.9c. Couple of ground frosts in the bag.

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    11 hours ago, Aleman said:

    Interitus - thanks for that. Does comparing a single day paint the whole picture, though?

    Here's the month of September 2015 and the September 2018 we've had so far.  I've put the latest week in, as well. The cold to our west seems to have deepened a touch maybe (snow expected in the US next week, too), not that it means our predominant weather must come from that direction. I just suspect it increases the odds of some unusual wintery weather in weeks ahead. After that, who knows? All, change maybe.

    ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_092015.pngncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.pngncep_cfsr_globe_t2m_week_anom.png

     

    The SSTs change slowly so the there is not much difference when using a longer time period - so 1-22 Sept 2015 -

    201509SST.thumb.gif.17cd664c4f198867ffa427d0582e4bf2.gif

    was colder than the corresponding period this year -

    201809SST.thumb.gif.4f7e5ae179e1f217deaac980ec53f719.gif

    Incidentally the charts you show are 2 metre air temperatures which are different to the SSTs - here is the composite anomaly so far this September -

    201809T.thumb.gif.e4af503f79754c97a29901aa0182aac6.gif

    The correlations between the north Atlantic area as defined in the charts above and CET are weak, but show that for October, CET is most closely linked to September SST (corr 0.27 from 1950-2017) - would suggest a slightly cooler than average October this year -

    SepSST-OctCET.thumb.png.10dedcf6538c6d201d74f3c322648a71.png

    November and especially December show a negative correlation with May and June (corr -0.22, -0.26 and -0.3, -0.29) which would lead to a milder late autumn and early winter. The time lag is probably due to the re-emergence of anomalies that surface after mixing of the summer thermocline. Below is the May/June SST average vs December CET -

    MayJunSSTDecCET.thumb.png.0072eb4348c530d6e3144e2718a41f34.png

    The area-weighted average May-June SST this year was 9.874°C - about the same as the average of the 12 other coldest years (9.883°C) - the average CET in the following Decembers was 6.08°C. Interestingly, as well as the coldest May-June SST (since 1950) in 2015 being followed by the record warmest December (9.7°C), the second coldest SST in 1974 was followed by the overall joint second warmest December (8.1°C). There are 5 more 6+ degree Decembers in these 12 years and only one below average (2009).

    Edited by Interitus
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Ground and air frost here this morning. With some lovely Autumnal sunshine burning it off just now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

    Ground frost here this morning about five miles outside Reading. Minimum temperature of 1.6. Can't recall having to scrape ice off the car in September for many years!

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    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

    Thanks, Interitus, for good references and explanation - though I have an eye on unusual cold over Canada and Greenland, too. Forecasts are for it to spread into the US. Though this is dry air and so more fleeting, it will be interesting to watch how it develops and affects us.

    Edited by Aleman
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    The negative correlation to the Atlantic/CET is not overly shocking given the clear thermal gradiant it can create and the fact that most years dont see stratospheric disruption significantly before the new year.

    This year the lack of a strong ENSO event and a -AMO signal in the tropics may be beneficial in terms of a less hostile Q4 AO base.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chipping Norton, 220mts /720ft asl
  • Location: Chipping Norton, 220mts /720ft asl
    20 hours ago, WhiteFox said:

    Ground frost here this morning about five miles outside Reading. Minimum temperature of 1.6. Can't recall having to scrape ice off the car in September for many years!

    Same here. Had to scrape the frost off the car yesterday - in September !!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Quite likely to experience our coldest night of the new season so far, with clear skies and wind becoming light, we look favoured to be one of the colder parts of the UK by dawn. Might not quite get down to 0 degrees, but a ground frost most likely. Suspect Shap will fall below 0 degrees.

    On a point of coldest places, what is it with Katesbridge? why does it record such low temps.. an odd wonder?

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    Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
    51 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Quite likely to experience our coldest night of the new season so far, with clear skies and wind becoming light, we look favoured to be one of the colder parts of the UK by dawn. Might not quite get down to 0 degrees, but a ground frost most likely. Suspect Shap will fall below 0 degrees.

    On a point of coldest places, what is it with Katesbridge? why does it record such low temps.. an odd wonder?

    http://www.markvoganweather.com/2017/09/17/visit-to-katesbridge-weather-station-northern-irelands-icebox/

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Thanks for the link above -very interesting, a case of the weather station being perfectly placed in the lowest part of the bowl. It makes sense it doesn't score on a par with some of the noteworthy frost hollows elsewhere in the UK during the winter though, given its milder more sheltered aspect.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

    I missed the frost we clearly had but we still have 2-3mm of ice in an upturned lid we leave on the ground for birds.

    https://eldoradoweather.com/climate/world-extremes/world-temp-rainfall-extremes.php?extremes=United%2BK

     

    Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 10/07/2018 at 09:00 UTC
    No. Location Station ID Amount
    1 Aboyne (United Kingdom) 03080 -4.3°C
    2 Redesdale (United Kingdom) 03230 -3.6°C
    3 Topcliffe (United Kingdom) 03265 -2.9°C
    4 Eskdalemuir (United Kingdom) 03162 -2.6°C
    5 Cairngorm (United Kingdom) 03065 -2.3°C
    6 Shap (United Kingdom) 03225 -2°C
    7 Rostherne No 2 (United Kingdom) 03351 -1.7°C
    8 Pershore (United Kingdom) 03529 -1.6°C
    9 Sennybridge (United Kingdom) 03507 -1.2°C
    10 West Freugh (United Kingdom) 03132 -1.1°C
    11 Bala (United Kingdom) 03409 -1°C
    12 Benson (United Kingdom) 03658 -1°C
    13 Leeming (United Kingdom) 03257 -0.7°C
    14 Trawscoed (United Kingdom) 03503 -0.7°C
    15 Aberdeen / Dyce (United Kingdom) 03091 -0.6°C
    Script courtesy of  Michael Holden of Relay Weather. Data courtesy of Ogimet

     

     

     

     
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
     

     

    Edited by Aleman
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    • 2 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Resurrecting this thread - it often disappears and then reappears through October.

    Alas, I think, though not certain we had our first air frost this morning. Many rural parts in the far north and scotland saw one I imagine.

    Could anyone post mins for last night. Thanks

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    51 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Resurrecting this thread - it often disappears and then reappears through October.

    Alas, I think, though not certain we had our first air frost this morning. Many rural parts in the far north and scotland saw one I imagine.

    Could anyone post mins for last night. Thanks

    We had a nice frost this Morning to thats the second so far.

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

    Mild in the south last night,cold air creeped in later got down to 3c with a slight ground frost.

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    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

    For damainslaw - yesterday's and today's

    Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 10/18/2018 at 16:00 UTC No. Location Station ID Amount
    1 Aboyne (United Kingdom) 03080 -3°C
    2 Eskdalemuir (United Kingdom) 03162 -2.5°C
    3 Cairngorm (United Kingdom) 03065 -2.3°C
    4 Shap (United Kingdom) 03225 -1.6°C
    5 Redesdale (United Kingdom) 03230 -1.5°C
    6 Castlederg (United Kingdom) 03904 -0.8°C
    7 Strathallan (United Kingdom) 03144 -0.5°C
    8 Tulloch Bridge (United Kingdom) 03047 -0.5°C
    9 Leeming (United Kingdom) 03257 -0.3°C
    10 Shoeburyness (United Kingdom) 03693 0°C
    11 Wick (United Kingdom) 03075 0°C
    12 Carlisle (United Kingdom) 03220 0.4°C
    13 Edinburgh Gogarbank (United Kingdom) 03166 0.4°C
    14 Warcop Range (United Kingdom) 03226 0.5°C
    15 Keswick (United Kingdom) 03212 0.6°C
    Script courtesy of Michael Holden of Relay Weather. Data courtesy of Ogimet

     

    https://eldoradoweather.com/climate/world-extremes/world-temp-rainfall-extremes.php?extremes=United%2BK

    Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 10/19/2018 at 09:00 UTC
    No. Location Station ID Amount
    1 Redesdale (United Kingdom) 03230 -2.5°C
    2 Eskdalemuir (United Kingdom) 03162 -2.4°C
    3 Shap (United Kingdom) 03225 -1.3°C
    4 Cairngorm (United Kingdom) 03065 -0.8°C
    5 Aboyne (United Kingdom) 03080 -0.5°C
    6 Spadeadam (United Kingdom) 03224 -0.4°C
    7 Topcliffe (United Kingdom) 03265 -0.2°C
    8 Leeming (United Kingdom) 03257 -0.1°C
    9 Pershore (United Kingdom) 03529 -0.1°C
    10 Leconfield (United Kingdom) 03382 0.2°C
    11 Bala (United Kingdom) 03409 0.3°C
    12 Benson (United Kingdom) 03658 0.5°C
    13 Church Lawford (United Kingdom) 03544 0.5°C
    14 Rostherne No 2 (United Kingdom) 03351 0.5°C
    15 Scampton (United Kingdom) 03373 0.5°C
    Script courtesy of  Michael Holden of Relay Weather. Data courtesy of Ogimet

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Many thanks for the above, looks like we might have just scraped an air frost, given we are usually a little below Keswick. Alas, next weekend should bring the first widespread air frosts of the new season, so I am expecting this thread to be a little busier.

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