UK first ground and air frost watch season 2018-2019

[crazy_diamond]

A little less technically adept here, but this morning was the first time I had to scrape ice from the windscreen this season.

Edited October 31, 2018 by crazy_diamond

[Aleman]

Could be some more first frosts and coldest yets last night. Our bird-bath had 4mm of ice.

Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 10/31/2018 at 08:00 UTC

No.	Location	Station ID	Amount
1	Cairngorm (United Kingdom)	03065	-7°C
2	Aboyne (United Kingdom)	03080	-6.5°C
3	Shobdon (United Kingdom)	03520	-5.6°C
4	Aviemore (United Kingdom)	03063	-5.4°C
5	Altnaharra (United Kingdom)	03044	-5.2°C
6	Benson (United Kingdom)	03658	-4.9°C
7	Bournemouth Airport (United Kingdom)	03862	-4.8°C
8	Sennybridge (United Kingdom)	03507	-4.8°C
9	Trawscoed (United Kingdom)	03503	-4.6°C
10	Hereford/Credenhill (United Kingdom)	03522	-4.5°C
11	Pershore (United Kingdom)	03529	-4.4°C
12	Tain Range (United Kingdom)	03062	-4°C
13	West Freugh (United Kingdom)	03132	-3.9°C
14	Bala (United Kingdom)	03409	-3.6°C
15	Capel Curig (United Kingdom)	03305	-3.6°C
Script courtesy of  Michael Holden of Relay Weather. Data courtesy of Ogimet

Edited October 31, 2018 by Aleman

[Snowyowl9]

-0.1c last night last time we had 3 air frosts in a row was the 90`s in October what year  only made 1 in 2003 and 1 in 2008,0.1c otherwise.

1993 looks like.

 

[matt111]

First air frost here last night with a low of -1.1°C, exactly a month earlier than the first air frost last year. 

[reef]

It briefly went down to -0.1C here making it the first air frost of the season.

I'm quite surprised tonight managed it. It looked like we were going to have to wait until December looking at the models.

[Katrine Basso]

The first frost has appeared in South Ockendon. There is frost on the ground and frost on the roof.  The frost is more prominent at the back for my garden than my front garden. The sky is overcast with pearly grey stratus clouds. The dew point temperature is at 0^°C and the temperature is at 1^°C.

Edited November 22, 2018 by Katrine Basso
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[Lauren]

First time this winter I've woken up to see frost on everything. Oddly, my car windscreen is fine! Much as I hate the cold, the world does look pretty covered in frost.

[Aleman]

Drizzle melted all the frost before we got up but we have 5mm of ice in the birdbath after a -1.1C low. I can imagine there might have been problems with black ice for those on early work shifts.

 

Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 11/22/2018 at 09:00 UTC

No.	Location	Station ID	Amount
1	Odiham (United Kingdom)	03761	-5.6°C
2	Farnborough (United Kingdom)	03768	-5.5°C
3	Benson (United Kingdom)	03658	-4.3°C
4	Charlwood (United Kingdom)	03769	-4.3°C
5	Northolt (United Kingdom)	03672	-3.7°C
6	Redesdale (United Kingdom)	03230	-3.6°C
7	Church Lawford (United Kingdom)	03544	-3.3°C
8	Shap (United Kingdom)	03225	-3.3°C
9	Great Dun Fell (United Kingdom)	03227	-3.2°C
10	Coleshill (United Kingdom)	03535	-3°C
11	Cairngorm (United Kingdom)	03065	-2.9°C
12	Emley Moor No 2 (United Kingdom)	03346	-2.9°C
13	Marham (United Kingdom)	03482	-2.8°C
14	Shawbury (United Kingdom)	03414	-2.8°C
15	Little Rissington (United Kingdom)	03647	-2.7°C
Script courtesy of  Michael Holden of Relay Weather. Data courtesy of Ogim

 

[Froze were the Days]

Our first ground frost of Autumn!! - got down to 0.7c early this morning before cloud cover came over.

[Nick L]

1 hour ago, Lauren said:

First time this winter I've woken up to see frost on everything. Oddly, my car windscreen is fine! Much as I hate the cold, the world does look pretty covered in frost.

I'm lucky that I've got a parking garage in my block of flats, never have to scrape the windscreen

[MeophamWeather]

Overnight minimums at chesham -7.3°c and Redhill Aerodrome  -7.1°c. , meanwhile here in Meopham, North kent our first proper air frost with a minimum of -2.0°c

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Lovely frosty morning down to -3.5c here in Old Windsor.

[Aleman]

Might be cold enough for a few more first frosts somewhere:

 

Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 11/27/2018 at 09:00 UTC

No.	Location	Station ID	Amount
1	Cairngorm (United Kingdom)	03065	-5.4°C
2	Aviemore (United Kingdom)	03063	-5.1°C
3	Tain Range (United Kingdom)	03062	-4.6°C
4	Bournemouth Airport (United Kingdom)	03862	-4.2°C
5	Capel Curig (United Kingdom)	03305	-3.9°C
6	Aonach Mor (United Kingdom)	03041	-3.7°C
7	Larkhill (United Kingdom)	03743	-3.6°C
8	Kinloss (United Kingdom)	03066	-3.5°C
9	Shap (United Kingdom)	03225	-3.5°C
10	Cairnwell (United Kingdom)	03072	-3.3°C
11	Loch Glascarnoch (United Kingdom)	03031	-3.3°C
12	Shobdon (United Kingdom)	03520	-3.2°C
13	Aboyne (United Kingdom)	03080	-3.1°C
14	Hawarden (United Kingdom)	03321	-3°C
15	Pershore (United Kingdom)	03529	-3°C
Script courtesy of  Michael Holden of Relay Weather. Data courtesy of Ogimet

 

[Froze were the Days]

Still waiting to wake up to a frost, air or ground this Autumn!...3.3c minima here overnight but just damp[ and misty

[sundog]

Have not had a proper frost since early this month.  Nov has been poor at my location for frosts this yr. Since my last air frost on Nov 2nd (-1.0c) my lowest temp has been 3.1c on the 11th. Looks like I will have gotten more airfrosts in Oct (2) this yr then Nov and it looked  good for airfrosts a number of weeks ago.

[Interitus]

On 25/09/2018 at 09:16, Interitus said:

The SSTs change slowly so the there is not much difference when using a longer time period - so 1-22 Sept 2015 -

was colder than the corresponding period this year -

Incidentally the charts you show are 2 metre air temperatures which are different to the SSTs - here is the composite anomaly so far this September -

The correlations between the north Atlantic area as defined in the charts above and CET are weak, but show that for October, CET is most closely linked to September SST (corr 0.27 from 1950-2017) - would suggest a slightly cooler than average October this year -

November and especially December show a negative correlation with May and June (corr -0.22, -0.26 and -0.3, -0.29) which would lead to a milder late autumn and early winter. The time lag is probably due to the re-emergence of anomalies that surface after mixing of the summer thermocline. Below is the May/June SST average vs December CET -

The area-weighted average May-June SST this year was 9.874°C - about the same as the average of the 12 other coldest years (9.883°C) - the average CET in the following Decembers was 6.08°C. Interestingly, as well as the coldest May-June SST (since 1950) in 2015 being followed by the record warmest December (9.7°C), the second coldest SST in 1974 was followed by the overall joint second warmest December (8.1°C). There are 5 more 6+ degree Decembers in these 12 years and only one below average (2009).

There you go, CET anomalies for October 0.0, November +1.8, December +2.2 - Nov + Dec in particular good predictions matching the statistical analysis from a 5/6 month lead time. December came in at 6.9°C, another 6+ month making it 6 from the 13 coolest May/June SSTs in the area in the charts above, with 12/13 milder than average and only 2009 cooler.