Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Roger J Smith

September 2018 C.E.T. forecast contest and optional EWP forecast contest

Recommended Posts

More or less certain to finish on 13.9C before corrections are applied. 14.1 or 14.2C on tomorrows update, then 14.0C to the 29th, and 13.9C to the 30th

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

More or less certain to finish on 13.9C before corrections are applied. 14.1 or 14.2C on tomorrows update, then 14.0C to the 29th, and 13.9C to the 30th

Another close to average September, then.  No complaints from me!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

13.6c here to the 27th, 0.1c below the 1981-2010 average.

Looking likely to finish just below average as per CET.

Very similar to last September which was 13.5c, bang on the average.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunny Sheffield unchanged at 13.6C -0.3C below average . Rainfall Unchanged.

Edited by The PIT

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

14.2 to the 28th

0.5 above the 61 to 90 average

0.1 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 14.2 to the 26th & 28th

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

13.4c here to the 28th, 0.2c below the 1981-2010 average.

Expecting a finish around 13.1 or 13.2c.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A finish of between 13.8 and 14.0 degrees most likely, as expecting a 0.2 degree downward adjustment. So just only just above average 61-90 value.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunny Sheffield at 13.5C -0.5C below average and looking like we will finish on 13.4C Rainfall unchanged at 99mm 141/4% of the monthly average

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

14.0 to the 29th

0.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.1 below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 14.0 to the 29th

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quite possibly 13.8 degrees then, maybe 13.9 degrees, outside chance of 13.7 degrees even - expect downward adjustments.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Looks like the final value is 13.7C
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2018

A downward correction of 0.16C, from 13.88C to 13.72C.

I notice September 2018 had 4 days with CET daily means <10C

I think you have to go back to 1986 for  a September that had more. 

Edited by Weather-history

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I notice September 2018 had 4 days with CET daily means <10C

I think you have to go back to 1986 for  a September that had more. 

Yep. 1993 and 1987 also had 4, but 1986 had 10 such days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SeptComp.thumb.JPG.325b5e92998793d7ea208f565a075e87.JPG

The above compares the daily CET values with the historical daily values and daily extremes. Overall, we had 16 days below average and 14 above. We didn't set any daily records during the month, but we did have 3 days in the top 10 warmest (for their respective days), 17th, 18th and 19th, and 1 day in the bottom 10 coolest, on the 24th.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

finished on a cold cloudy note here in Edmonton...the month has ended at 5.6c which is an incredible -6.1c below normal..wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't one of the coldest Septembers on record

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

September finished on 13.2c here, 0.3c below the 1981-2010 average.

Average Max: 17.7c (+0.2c)

Average Min: 8.7c (-0.8c)

The low night time temps clearly doing the damage.

Rainfall finished at 55.2mm which is 90% of the average.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At 13.7c, September 2018 shares the same mean monthly CET with September's: 2013, 1995, 1984, 1983, 1831, 1827, 1824 and 1811.

Edited by Walsall Wood Snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The last ten days averaged 10.9 C, so not quite in the bottom twenty but close to it. A list of the years that had 10.0 or colder in that period (21-30 September) can be found earlier in this thread. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Subject to confirmation by J10 in the scoring report, these would be the top ranked forecasts for September (no forecasts of 13.7, those for 13.8 and 13.6 share top five, ranks based on order of entry which is the number in brackets after forecasters' names, then 13.9 and 13.5 are 6th and 7th while 13.4 and 14.0 share 8th to 10th place:

 

14.0 __ average 1981-2010 and 8th -- Summer Blizzard (5), 10th -- davehsug (56)

13.9 __ 6th -- weather26 (4)

13.8 __ 1st -- Kirkcaldy Weather (13), 2nd -- coldest winter (18), 3rd -- daniel* (35), 4th -- weather-history (38)

13.7 __ September 2018

13.6 __ 5th -- ProlongedSnowLover (43)

13.5 __ 7th -- Godber.1 (49)

13.4 __ 9th -- AlexisJ9 (15)

A few days ago I posted a provisional scoring summary for EWP (NCIC version) which is just an estimate based on the Hadley daily tracker, could need a bit of revision when the actual number comes in, but will give you some idea how you did there (it's over in the scoring thread). My estimate for the NCIC version is 64 mm. 

I will post an update of the scoring exploits of the three robotic forecasters next, looks like the two Norms are trying to catch Consensus in a last minute burst of amazing accuracy. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

_ Report on the Three Robotic Forecasters for September 2018 _

 

The two normals continue to catch up to consensus with a considerably better score this past month. 

 

___ Past months ____

____________DEC _________________________ JAN ________________________ FEB

"Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range)

1987-2016*__ +0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 (88-17)>--0.6 __66.7 - 74.1 _ 15 to 19 ______ +1.9 _ 31.2 - 35.1 _ 51 to 54

1981-2010 __ --0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 ______ --0.9 __ 50.0 - 55.6 _ 25 to 28 ______ +1.5 _ 48.1 - 49.4 _ 40 to 41

Consensus __--0.6 __ 71.0 - 74.9 __20 to 23 _____--0.9 __ 50.0 -55.6 _ 25 to 28 _______+1.1 _ 57.1 - 58.4 _ 33 to 34

* becomes 1988-2017 from JAN onward.

____________ MAR ___________________________________ APR _____________________ MAY ____________ 

"Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range)

1988-2017 __ +1.9 __ 20.8 - 22.1 __ 60 to 61 ____ --1.1 __ 72.2--72,2 __ 18 to 18 _____ --1.3 _ 28.6 - 33.3 _ 43 to 46

1981-2010 __ +1.7 __ 26.1 - 26.1 __ 57 to 57 ____ --1.3 __ 57.4--65.6 __ 22 to 27 _____ --1.5 _ 19.1 - 20.5 _ 51 to 52

Consensus __--0.3 __ 78.9 - 85.5 __12 to 17 ____ --1.4 __ 50.8--55.8 __ 28 to 31 ______ --1.0 _ 46.1 - 54.0 _ 30 to 35

 

______________JUN ________________________JUL ___________________________ AUG _____________

"Forecaster" _ Error_ Points (range)_rank (range) __Error _ points (range) _ rank (range) __Error _ points (range) _ rank (range)

 

1988-2017 __ --1.5 __ 12.0 - 12.0 __ 57 to 57 ____ --2.4 __ 03.1 - 03.1 __ 63 to 63 ____ --0.1 ___ 95.3 - 98.4 __ 02 to 04

1981-2010 __ --1.6 __ 04.1 - 10.4 __ 58 to 62 ____ --2.4 __ 03.1 - 03.1 __ 63 to 63 ____ --0.2 ___ 93.7 - 93.7 __ 05 to 05

Consensus __--0.3 __ 74.9 - 82.7 __ 12 to 17 ____ --0.9 __ 51.6 - 53.2 __ 31 to 32 ____ +1.3 ___ 53.0 - 55.2 __ 29 to 31

 

________ Current Month __ Sep 2018 ________________ Contest year averages to date (10 mo)___

"Forecaster" _Aug Error_Aug Points (range)_rank (range) // mean abs error_mean points_mean rank

1988-2017 ___ +0.4 _____ 83.3 - 83.3 ____ 11 to 11 ________ 1.14 _____ 48.4 - 52.5 __ 33 to 35 

1981-2010 ___ +0.3 _____ 85.0 - 88.3 ____ 08 to 10 ________ 1.16 _____ 46.9 - 50.0 __ 31 to 33

Consensus ___+1.2 _____ 43.3 - 51.7 ____ 30 to 35 ________ 0.90 _____ 57.7 - 64.0 __ 26 to 30 

_______________________________________________________________________________

The two normals have made more headway in their struggle to catch Consensus, but it will take two 

more similar performances to make things nearly even at the end (after two more months). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

At 13.7c, September 2018 shares the same mean monthly CET with September's: 2013, 1995, 1984, 1983, 1831, 1827, 1824 and 1811.

That's an odd little quirk, for if you ask people of very good summers over the years, 1983, 1984, 1995, 2013 and now 2018 will feature in people's list, they certainly up there in the Manchester Summer Index list

1976 301
1995 298
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
2018 272
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267
1989 262
1947 255
1933 251
1901 249
1921 249
2003 247
2013 247

Edited by Weather-history

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Monthly Figures - Summary and Top 10

No players got it spot on, with 5 players 0.1c out.

Kirkcaldy Weather, coldest winter, daniel, weather-history and ProlongedSnowLover.

The top 10 precisely as shown by Roger above.

image.thumb.png.3bfc7c7a57be69077455f975d11c1f5f.png

Seasonal - Summary and Top 10.

Very much in the same order as the monthly figures above.

image.thumb.png.73101f8c9ccee00efdd3f49139fb87ab.png

Overall - Summary and Top 10.
No change in the Top 3.

1st Man with Beard
2nd Don
3rd Norrance

Elsewhere in the Top 10
Godber_1 up 4th places to 4th.
mulzy up 11 places to 6th. 

image.thumb.png.6a2d32b379ebbce75519eaacb29d7c77.png

Sept 2018 CET.xlsx

 

Edited by J10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EWP (NCIC version) in at 72.8 mm, a bit higher than the current Hadley estimate of 68 mm (we'll see where that one finalizes in a few days).

Scoring is now posted over in competition scoring thread. 

Top scores are:

RANK _ FORECASTER ____________ F'cast ____ Error ___ score

 

__ 01 __ JeffC ____________________ 74.0 ______ +1.2 ____ 10.0

__(02) _ average 1981-2010 ________ 71.1 ______--1.7 _____ 9.9

__ 02 __ Radiating Dendrite _________ 71.0 ______--1.8 _____ 9.8

__(03) _ average 1988-2017 ________ 74.7 ______ +1.9 _____ 9.7

__ 03 __ Dr(S)No _________________ 75.5 ______+2.7 _____ 9.5

__ 04 __ Stargazer ________________ 67.0 ______--5.8 _____ 9.3

__ 05 __ Evening Star (GBRunner12) _ 66.0 ______--6.8 _____ 9.0

__ 06 __ J10 _____________________65.0 ______--7.8 _____ 8.8

__ 07 __ CheesePuffScott __________ 64.0 ______--8.8 _____ 8.5

__ 08 __ LetItSnow! _______________ 62.0 _____--10.8 _____ 8.3

__ 09 __ PolarGael ________________85.5 _____ +12.7 _____ 8.0

__ 10 __ jonboy __________________ 60.0 _____--12.8 _____ 7.8

__ 11 __ Relativistic _______________ 60.0 _____--12.8 _____ 7.6 (+1d late .. 7.8 -- 0.2)

__ 12 __ Bobd29 __________________87.0 _____ +14.2 _____ 7.3

 

=======================================

 

and the annual contest now looks like this:

 

EWP scoring Dec 2017 to Sept 2018

 

Rank _ Forecaster _____________Dec_Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep __TOTAL_ previous rank

 

_01 __ SINGULARITY ___________5.2 _7.2 _9.8 _7.7 _6.4 _8.0 _5.7 _9.2 _7.7 _5.0 __ 71.9 ____ 01

_02 __  J10 ___________________ 4.4 _7.6 _0.7 _8.3 _9.2 _9.8 _4.3 _8.6 _5.4 _8.8 __ 67.1 ____ 05

_03 __ POLAR GAEL ___________ 4.6 _9.4 _8.6 _2.6 _8.2 _9.6 _8.4 _5.5 _2.1 _8.0 __ 67.0 ____ 03

_04 __ JONBOY _______________ 9.2 _7.8 _6.4 _9.6 _7.5 _3.7 _0.6 _6.3 _4.4 _7.8 __ 63.3 ____ 06

_05 __ DON __________________ 1.8 _6.1 _7.4 _8.3 _8.8 _4.3 _6.8 _6.3_10.0 _3.0 __ 62.8 ____ 02

(06) __ consensus _____________5.2 _6.3 _5.0 _5.7_7.7 _5.3 _5.3 _8.8 _5.5 _6.0 __ 60.8 ____ (08)

_06 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE ______3.4 _3.3 _9.8_10.0_3.6 _3.0 _8.6 _5.3 _5.7 _7.0 __ 59.7 ____ 09

_07 __ DR (S) NO ______________ 9.8 _8.8 _1.2 _6.2 _6.4 _2.4 _2.4 _3.7 _9.1 _9.5 __ 59.5 ____ 10 

_T08__NORRANCE ____________ 7.0 _2.2 _8.4 _9.3 _5.4 _9.4 _1.2 _3.6 _6.4 _6.0 __ 58.9 ____ 08

_T08_CHRISBELL-nottheWxMAN _10.0 _6.8 _2.6 _6.4 _4.0 _3.9 _9.2 _7.8 _8.2 _---- __ 58.9 ____ 04

_10 __ RADIATING DENDRITE ___ 2.0 _2.4 _8.7 _4.5 _2.0 _7.8 _9.4 _9.2 _2.8 _9.8 __ 58.6 ____ 12

_(11) _ average 1981-2010 _______7.5 _6.4 _5.3 _5.0 _2.6 _6.4 _3.2 _1.4_10.0_9.9 __ 57.7 ____ (16)

_11 __  BORN FROM THE VOID___6.4 _9.8 _3.5 _5.7 _7.5 _9.0 _1.8 _7.4 _3.3 _2.0 __ 56.4 ____ 07

_12 __ SEASIDE 60 ____________ 5.8 _4.5 _4.8 _8.8 _8.4 _5.1 _5.9 _4.5 _1.8 _4.3 __ 53.9 ____ 11

_(13)_average 1988-2017 (D 87-16) 7.9_7.5 _3.9 _3.4 _2.4 _6.4 _2.4 _1.1 _9.0 _9.7 __ 53.7 ____ (T22)

_13 __ REEF __________________ 9.0 _5.3 _2.8 _3.8 _1.8 _7.4 _3.0_10.0_5.4 _3.8 __ 52.3 ____ 14

_14 __ BOBD29 ________________3.2 _7.0 _6.5 _5.9 _5.6 _2.0 _8.8 _3.7 _1.1 _7.3 __ 51.1 ____ 23

_15 __ MULZY _________________7.0 _8.6 _6.7 _0.9 _1.8 _8.2 _4.3 _8.0 _2.5 _3.0 __ 51.0 ____ 15

_16 __ DAVID SNOW____________ 2.2 _3.3 _8.6 _5.7 _5.4 _2.2 _7.0 _4.5 _9.8 _1.8 __ 50.5 ____ 13

_17 __ STARGAZER ____________ 1.4 _9.4 _2.4 _7.1 _2.7 _4.5 _6.5 _6.7 _----_9.3 __ 50.0 ____ 28

_18 __ LET IT SNOW ! __________ ---- _----_ 8.8 _6.5 _4.7 _3.5 _9.6 _0.8 _7.3 _8.3 __ 49.5 ____ 26

_19 __ SYED2878 ______________ 4.8_10.0_3.8 _5.0 _2.2 _6.1 _3.2 _1.8 _9.1 _3.0 __ 49.0 ____ 20

_20 __ GODBER.1 _____________ 2.4 _7.4 _5.5 _3.5 _7.5_10.0 _0.6 _7.4 _2.8 _1.3 __ 48.4 ____ 17

____ (this month's winner is tied 21 with SteveB at 47.8 points) ____ 

 

All the rest of the scoring can be reviewed over at the competition and scoring thread. 

Link:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=10

 

Edited by Roger J Smith

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...